Here's something..

Question

I had an idea last year to chase the over for the 3 prime time NFL games, thurs, sun., monday...Dan's prime time thread reminded me of it but I didn't really re-visit it.

Anyway...I was on the under for the Pit/Balt. game last night..The loss made me take a look at it again..

So far this year (using covers closing lines)..

Thurs. night games the over is 7-1

Sun. night is 7-1

Mon. 6-3 (2 monday night games week 1.)

20-5.

Just something to think about. Prime time games like to go over.

(As far as my 'system' goes..there was a loss early on last year. 8-0 so far this year...I haven't back tested it any further..But why chase when the overs are hitting.)

Dutch1976 · Answer

I had an idea last year to chase the over for the 3 prime time NFL games, thurs, sun., monday...Dan's prime time thread reminded me of it but I didn't really re-visit it.

Anyway...I was on the under for the Pit/Balt. game last night..The loss made me take a look at it again..

So far this year (using covers closing lines)..

Thurs. night games the over is 7-1

Sun. night is 7-1

Mon. 6-3 (2 monday night games week 1.)

20-5.

Just something to think about. Prime time games like to go over.

(As far as my 'system' goes..there was a loss early on last year. 8-0 so far this year...I haven't back tested it any further..But why chase when the overs are hitting.)

Dutch1976 · Answer

For the record, when I say the system is 8-0 so far this year..I'm not actually betting it.

I just figured with the overs hitting at such a high %, there's something to look at or maybe someone smarter than me can turn it into a system.

rivermonsterz · Answer

Thanks for sharing.I&#x27;ve got a good system that could be applied to this, flat betting or even a labby line.how do the overs look for previous years?

rivermonsterz · Answer

Do you have numbers for the 2 previous seasons back to when the Thursday night games were first introduced?

Audball · Answer

Sound interesting, anyone have the 2 previous seasons as rivermonsterz has asked?

rivermonsterz · Answer

Another over tonight.I may have some time later in the week to check, however am flat out checking some hockey situations right now.Might have to wait for next season

Dutch1976 · Answer

2012 (O/U&#x27;s below will be Thurs - Sun - Mon)Week 1 U - O - O U  (2 monday night games)Week 2 U - P - UWeek 3 U - O - UWeek 4 U - U - OWeek 5 U - O - UWeek 6 O - O - OWeek 7 U - U - UWeek 8 O - U - UWeek 9 O - U - UWeek10 U - U - UWeek11 U - U - OWeek12  O O O - U - O....(3 Thurs night games.)Week13 U - O - UWeek14 U - U - OWeek15 O - O - UWeek16 U - U - O

Dutch1976 · Answer

I&#x27;m going to go ahead and do last years back testing just because , but it&#x27;s looking like this years prime time overs is an anomaly.

Dutch1976 · Answer

2013Week 1 O - O - OO  (2 Mon. games)Week 2 U - U - UWeek 3 U - O - OWeek 4 O - O - OWeek 5 O - U - OWeek 6 U - U - OWeek 7 O - O - UWeek 8 O - O - UWeek 9 P - O - UWeek10 O - O - O Week11 O - U - UWeek12 U - O - UWeek13 OOO - U - U (3 Thurs games)Week14 O - U - OWeek15 U - O - UWeek16    - O - O   ( No Thurs game.)

Dutch1976 · Answer

In 2012 (if you did a primetime over chase) weeks 7 and 10 would have been 2 system losses.

In 2013 week 2 would have been a loss.

It'd be nice to have 10 yrs of backtesting to look at. And even then, going forward, 3 pretty random games all going under isn't exactly a surprise.

But like I said if someone wants to fiddle with the idea..Cheers.

Dutch1976 · Answer

Edit: In 2012 week 2..U- P - U...That&#x27;d be a loss, just not as expensive.If you kept chasing into week 3 it would have hit on the 3rd bet after the push...Whateva.

Dutch1976 · Answer

I&#x27;m going to keep tracking this just because..With the Chi/GB over the 3 game chase would be 9-0.

Dutch1976 · Answer

It&#x27;d be 10-0...Not sure why I was saying 8-0 if it was week 9 last week.

Dutch1976 · Answer

With tonight&#x27;s over it&#x27;d be 11-0

Dutch1976 · Answer

Kc/Oak went overSystem would be 12-0.

Dutch1976 · Answer

A loss this week.So it was 12-0..Would have been up 12 units..A loss would cost..what..7.7 units?Anyway I&#x27;m done with it...Someone might come up with some parameters..The o/u has to be so many points, or avoid certain teams. Idk.

Here's something..

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