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Here's something..

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Posted: #1
I had an idea last year to chase the over for the 3 prime time NFL games, thurs, sun., monday...Dan's prime time thread reminded me of it but I didn't really re-visit it.

Anyway...I was on the under for the Pit/Balt. game last night..The loss made me take a look at it again..



So far this year (using covers closing lines)..


Thurs. night games the over is 7-1

Sun. night is 7-1

Mon. 6-3 (2 monday night games week 1.)

20-5.

Just something to think about. Prime time games like to go over.

(As far as my 'system' goes..there was a loss early on last year. 8-0 so far this year...I haven't back tested it any further..But why chase when the overs are hitting.)
 
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Posted: #2
For the record, when I say the system is 8-0 so far this year..I'm not actually betting it. 

I just figured with the overs hitting at such a high %, there's something to look at or maybe someone smarter than me can turn it into a system.
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks for sharing.
I've got a good system that could be applied to this, flat betting or even a labby line.
how do the overs look for previous years?
 
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Posted: #4
Do you have numbers for the 2 previous seasons back to when the Thursday night games were first introduced?
 
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Posted: #5
Sound interesting, anyone have the 2 previous seasons as rivermonsterz has asked?
 
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Posted: #6
Another over tonight.
I may have some time later in the week to check, however am flat out checking some hockey situations right now.
Might have to wait for next season
 
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Posted: #7
2012 (O/U's below will be Thurs - Sun - Mon)

Week 1 U - O - O U  (2 monday night games)

Week 2 U - P - U

Week 3 U - O - U

Week 4 U - U - O

Week 5 U - O - U

Week 6 O - O - O

Week 7 U - U - U

Week 8 O - U - U

Week 9 O - U - U

Week10 U - U - U

Week11 U - U - O

Week12  O O O - U - O....(3 Thurs night games.)

Week13 U - O - U

Week14 U - U - O

Week15 O - O - U

Week16 U - U - O
 
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Posted: #8
I'm going to go ahead and do last years back testing just because , but it's looking like this years prime time overs is an anomaly.
 
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Posted: #9
2013

Week 1 O - O - OO  (2 Mon. games)

Week 2 U - U - U

Week 3 U - O - O

Week 4 O - O - O

Week 5 O - U - O

Week 6 U - U - O

Week 7 O - O - U

Week 8 O - O - U

Week 9 P - O - U

Week10 O - O - O 

Week11 O - U - U

Week12 U - O - U

Week13 OOO - U - U (3 Thurs games)

Week14 O - U - O

Week15 U - O - U

Week16    - O - O   ( No Thurs game.)



 
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Posted: #10
In 2012 (if you did a primetime over chase) weeks 7 and 10 would have been 2 system losses.

In 2013 week 2 would have been a loss.


It'd be nice to have 10 yrs of backtesting to look at. And even then, going forward, 3 pretty random games all going under isn't exactly a surprise.

But like I said if someone wants to fiddle with the idea..Cheers.
 
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Posted: #11
Edit: In 2012 week 2..U- P - U...That'd be a loss, just not as expensive.

If you kept chasing into week 3 it would have hit on the 3rd bet after the push...Whateva.
 
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Posted: #12
I'm going to keep tracking this just because..

With the Chi/GB over the 3 game chase would be 9-0.
 
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Posted: #13
It'd be 10-0...Not sure why I was saying 8-0 if it was week 9 last week. 
 
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Posted: #14
With tonight's over it'd be 11-0
 
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Posted: #15
Kc/Oak went over

System would be 12-0.


 
 
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Posted: #16
A loss this week.

So it was 12-0..Would have been up 12 units..A loss would cost..what..7.7 units?

Anyway I'm done with it...Someone might come up with some parameters..The o/u has to be so many points, or avoid certain teams. Idk.


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