Posted:
#51
MY FRIENDS
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Handicapping 101
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by JackBauer:
Wanted to start a thread for beginners and veterans alike to share their thoughts on Sports Handicapping Fundamentals. I will be contributing my thoughts on a daily basis, but would appreciate insight from any and all that visit.
Where do we begin.....
I have been on Covers for a few years and have seen the same fundamental mistakes that doom excellent handicappers committed over and over again.
Poor Money Management is probably the #1 reason 99% of handicappers fail. Does this look familiar?
Boston -7 (3 units)
San Antonio -6 (5 units)
Dallas/Phoenix under 219 (1 unit)
You see this all the time on this site. I can hit 67% of my bets and lose money with this strategy. Now, flat-bet those picks and hit 2-1, you are making money.
Yes, it sounds ridiculously simple, but so many novice handicappers make this simple mistake.
If you are risking 5 units on one play and 1 unit on another play, There is No Point in playing the 1 play bet!!!!!
When I have the adv on two games, I parlay the wager and I think that's a good bet. Some books give 2.8 to 1. An additional side bet on the heavy fav. is my insurance policy.
bigjohnY
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Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by sdiinc:
It's taken me a long time to read through this thread, and I appreciate many of the posts. I must say, however, that I'm a skeptic when it comes to handicapping that is not statistical in origin. Any human behavior can be mapped statistically if there are enough data points to reference. Even each of the above mentioned examples that 'defy' statistics can be included in a formula if you understand the means by which to measure.
My personal opinion is that these 'exceptions' are actually excuses for gamblers to justify making otherwise irrational decisions or to go against what logic would otherwise suggest. When a gambler invokes 'instinct' or 'art' or some other immeasurable unknown he is attempting to demonstrate that he is above nature, above math, God-like. Perhaps those who fall within this category should change your name to Barack.
Before Pareto's Law, people would have said that the notion that 20% of the people do 80% of the work was foolish; in reality we know that it is more like 10/90. And yet, Pareto's law is measurable, and regularly proven.
Thoughts?
It's taken me a long time to read through this thread, and I appreciate many of the posts. I must say, however, that I'm a skeptic when it comes to handicapping that is not statistical in origin. Any human behavior can be mapped statistically if there are enough data points to reference. Even each of the above mentioned examples that 'defy' statistics can be included in a formula if you understand the means by which to measure.
My personal opinion is that these 'exceptions' are actually excuses for gamblers to justify making otherwise irrational decisions or to go against what logic would otherwise suggest. When a gambler invokes 'instinct' or 'art' or some other immeasurable unknown he is attempting to demonstrate that he is above nature, above math, God-like. Perhaps those who fall within this category should change your name to Barack.
Before Pareto's Law, people would have said that the notion that 20% of the people do 80% of the work was foolish; in reality we know that it is more like 10/90. And yet, Pareto's law is measurable, and regularly proven.
Thoughts?
so...............you are telling me you can quantify things such as drive, ambition, anger, motivation, etc....?
I would be very interested in seeing that formula........................
I think men have a better chance of figuring out women..............
good luck with that.............................
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Posted:
#55
First off thanks for all the input from everyone who has posted. I've been casually following this post, and have become motivated to begin to cap my own games (before I was merely betting for fun and action). However, the challenge of beating the odds intrigues me.
A great deal of these posts have been statistical in nature, some incorporating formulas, which I really enjoy.
My problem however, is that I do not what formulas to apply to cap the games, or what stats to use. (I bet mainly on football)
So I was hoping that some of the posters would share some of their methods if they we're willing to help out a new bettor ( and I'm sure many others will appreciate some black and white tools to help them bet better.)
Thanks for the advice.
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Posted:
#56
Football, long term, (maybe any sport) I'll say this just to keep it simple. I find betting against the public gives me the best return. There are obviously other factors, but going the "Other way" seems to work best for me. I also like to watch the line, and find "Undervalued" Teams. Also find it important to know what the % of bettors on the each side. Then I refer to the opening line, at a particular book, and follow it. Also important to find the lopsided games, better know as "Square Plays" I find these game also have a long term profit. Kind of like stock's when all experts are hyping, public is buying, and industry folks are shorts... I find betting this way, (all sports) you tend to be on Underdogs to, getting points, usually alot, or plus $ in MLB. However, with baseball I find that stats are much more impotant then other sports. Figure, I think they say what only about 10% of bettors make consistant $ wagering, in the long haul. So If I bet against them my % should increase. Again, I'lm really trying to keep things simple here. By the way, EXCELLENT thread, esp on the money management, so, so important. I looked & looked for the best methods, "kellys" and so, and I come up with for me,again something real simple, Bet an amount, that dosn't make me feel nurvious, and an amount that gets me a bit excited about winning. Then make sure I still have enough for atleast 15 more wagers If I lose. another way of looking at it is, "how much would I pay to watch and enjoy this game"? Bet That Amount. Staying that the same amount is good, I still make that mistake. Yes, seems like the one you play small is usually the winner and the bigest dog,(thats why whichever amount Never bet scared) I hear a lot about this chasing method. Maybe I should do that but that would get me nurvious for sure, may even effect what I choose to play. In fact, I could be dead wrong doing this, but If I lose 3-4 in a row, (can't remember last time) I would lower my bet for a few days, make sure I'm not betting nurvious,or getting to Big Headed, & if I'm on some cold thing, rather ride it out betting real small. Anyway, Now what about Parlay, talk about how bad they are and what about these guys posting like 8-10 games, per day. wow, That can't be good, I personally like 1-2 games. Stright Bet. (Is That Good) However, lately ben also parlaying those same 2 for about 25%-30% of one bet. Is That Any Good? Sorry for any typos, to much computer time, long day. Again Good Thread shows there is still gown ups here.
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Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by TrueAce:
First off thanks for all the input from everyone who has posted. I've been casually following this post, and have become motivated to begin to cap my own games (before I was merely betting for fun and action). However, the challenge of beating the odds intrigues me.
A great deal of these posts have been statistical in nature, some incorporating formulas, which I really enjoy.
My problem however, is that I do not what formulas to apply to cap the games, or what stats to use. (I bet mainly on football)
So I was hoping that some of the posters would share some of their methods if they we're willing to help out a new bettor ( and I'm sure many others will appreciate some black and white tools to help them bet better.)
Thanks for the advice.
agreed.
I'd like to start capping games myself but cant get any help doing so... I'm not a math major by any means but I feel that with a bit of help i can learn to do for myself..Can someone please help me out..
feed a man a fish or teach a man to fish
smalltimer
0
Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by mixnuts:
Football, long term, (maybe any sport) I'll say this just to keep it simple. I find betting against the public gives me the best return. There are obviously other factors, but going the "Other way" seems to work best for me. I also like to watch the line, and find "Undervalued" Teams. Also find it important to know what the % of bettors on the each side. Then I refer to the opening line, at a particular book, and follow it. Also important to find the lopsided games, better know as "Square Plays" I find these game also have a long term profit. Kind of like stock's when all experts are hyping, public is buying, and industry folks are shorts... I find betting this way, (all sports) you tend to be on Underdogs to, getting points, usually alot, or plus $ in MLB. However, with baseball I find that stats are much more impotant then other sports. Figure, I think they say what only about 10% of bettors make consistant $ wagering, in the long haul. So If I bet against them my % should increase. Again, I'lm really trying to keep things simple here. By the way, EXCELLENT thread, esp on the money management, so, so important. I looked & looked for the best methods, "kellys" and so, and I come up with for me,again something real simple, Bet an amount, that dosn't make me feel nurvious, and an amount that gets me a bit excited about winning. Then make sure I still have enough for atleast 15 more wagers If I lose. another way of looking at it is, "how much would I pay to watch and enjoy this game"? Bet That Amount. Staying that the same amount is good, I still make that mistake. Yes, seems like the one you play small is usually the winner and the bigest dog,(thats why whichever amount Never bet scared) I hear a lot about this chasing method. Maybe I should do that but that would get me nurvious for sure, may even effect what I choose to play. In fact, I could be dead wrong doing this, but If I lose 3-4 in a row, (can't remember last time) I would lower my bet for a few days, make sure I'm not betting nurvious,or getting to Big Headed, & if I'm on some cold thing, rather ride it out betting real small. Anyway, Now what about Parlay, talk about how bad they are and what about these guys posting like 8-10 games, per day. wow, That can't be good, I personally like 1-2 games. Stright Bet. (Is That Good) However, lately ben also parlaying those same 2 for about 25%-30% of one bet. Is That Any Good? Sorry for any typos, to much computer time, long day. Again Good Thread shows there is still gown ups here.
Mixnuts......Your input is ALWAYS appreciated. Wish we saw you around here a little more
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Posted:
#60
Hi guys,
I'm new to the forums and have read a lot in here about various systems and whatnot - all very compelling stuff! It sounds as though most systems are derived from logging data in a spreadsheet, analyzing it, and then drawing conclusions.
Question: are there any tools online that can replicate this functionality without the painful manual data entry process, etc?
Cheers
I'm new to the forums and have read a lot in here about various systems and whatnot - all very compelling stuff! It sounds as though most systems are derived from logging data in a spreadsheet, analyzing it, and then drawing conclusions.
Question: are there any tools online that can replicate this functionality without the painful manual data entry process, etc?
Cheers
0
Posted:
#61
Jack Bauer,
1.Money management is number two. If you do not have a long term winning system, there is no money management system that will save you.
2. Kelly is the correct betting method IF
a) you know your long term advantage and
b) you make only one bet at a time. Kelly gets weird when you have to made more that one bet at a time (for example NFL on a Sunday).
3. Handicapping is different for each sport, and it is hard to be an expert in even one sport.
1.Money management is number two. If you do not have a long term winning system, there is no money management system that will save you.
2. Kelly is the correct betting method IF
a) you know your long term advantage and
b) you make only one bet at a time. Kelly gets weird when you have to made more that one bet at a time (for example NFL on a Sunday).
3. Handicapping is different for each sport, and it is hard to be an expert in even one sport.
0
Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by JackBauer:
As stated before I would like to write a bit on the Kelly Criterion as it applies to sports handicapping.
The Kelly Criterion can be applied by the wagerer to optimize one's return when an expected win percentage (probability) is known (perceived).
The formula is:
f* = bp - q
Where
f* = the fraction of current bankroll
b = the odds received
p = the probability of win
q = the probablity of loss
That's all well and good, but what the hell does it mean to me the bettor? Let's look at an example.
Using a Pythagorean prediction model we predict that the NY Mets have a 58% chance of winning the game today with a lay price of -120. Punching these numbers into the Kelly formula gives us:
f* = (.833) odds received(.58) win probablity - (.42) loss probability
(.833) odds received
f* = .075 or 7.5% of our total bankroll
Pretty aggressive risk strategy. That is why the 1/2 Kelly or 1/4 Kelly are more frequently applied. Using the 1/4 Kelly we would be risking 1.875% of our total bankroll on this individual play. That's a little easier to swallow.
I would not recommend applying the Kelly Criterion unless you have a valuation model that has thousands of plays logged and gives you a good indicator of it's accuracy in predicting winners.
Stick to betting a flat percentage of your bankroll until you have a mathematical justification for risking more on a given play.
I believe it was Jessica Biel in Summer Catch that said :"If you want big rewards you've got to take big risks"
Why do I know that? aargh.......
Good luck all......
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Posted:
#66
empire13 thanks for directing me to this thread. i have learned alot already and have some ideas on ways to incorporate this info into my poor ACTION driven habbits. im looking for some tips on actual capping skills also. I think money management is my biggest problem and parlays. Thanks for creating this thread and looking out for us not so strong willed gamblers. keep this thread going please
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