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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Guys, check this out tell me what you think.

    123456 Next Last»
    gutcheck
    C.R.E
    MILKMAN0923
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    123456 Next Last»
     
    gutcheck
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 10:05 AM ET #1

    A couple of years ago, I was postin under the name TheDog and I created this system ( I know another system). It did very good, for sometime, then the bottom fell out. I was hitting over 70% for the first 4 weeks. As we know all systems will eventually catch up to you.
     
    Anyway, I have been getting killed so far this year, so I thought I would give it another try.
     
    Here is how it works:
    You take team A's last 3 games, add up the point for and against, take team B's last 3 games and do the same. Then divide it by 6 games, this gives your total. If the difference is more than 3 either way you play the over or the under.
     
    Last night here was the system would have produced:
    Magic total was 189.5 the system was 193.8  Over Winner
    Suns total was 207 the system was 192.83 Under Winner
    Miami total was 182 the system was 178.6 Under Winner
    Utah total was 196 the system was 215.8 Over Winner
    Portland the total was 203.5 the system was 197.83 Under Winner
     
    So, last night the system would have gone 5-0.
     
    Couple of added points. When we did this 2 years ago, we realized that the Suns would skew the numbers. So, if a team had played the Suns in their last 3 games, it would be a no play. We also never played the Suns in the system. Looking at this year, not worried about the Suns, but GS, Denver, maybe Boston.
     
    What do you guys think?
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    A couple of years ago, I was postin under the name TheDog and I created this system ( I know another system). It did very good, for sometime, then the bottom fell out. I was hitting over 70% for the first 4 weeks. As we know all systems will eventually catch up to you.
     
    Anyway, I have been getting killed so far this year, so I thought I would give it another try.
     
    Here is how it works:
    You take team A's last 3 games, add up the point for and against, take team B's last 3 games and do the same. Then divide it by 6 games, this gives your total. If the difference is more than 3 either way you play the over or the under.
     
    Last night here was the system would have produced:
    Magic total was 189.5 the system was 193.8  Over Winner
    Suns total was 207 the system was 192.83 Under Winner
    Miami total was 182 the system was 178.6 Under Winner
    Utah total was 196 the system was 215.8 Over Winner
    Portland the total was 203.5 the system was 197.83 Under Winner
     
    So, last night the system would have gone 5-0.
     
    Couple of added points. When we did this 2 years ago, we realized that the Suns would skew the numbers. So, if a team had played the Suns in their last 3 games, it would be a no play. We also never played the Suns in the system. Looking at this year, not worried about the Suns, but GS, Denver, maybe Boston.
     
    What do you guys think?
     
    C.R.E
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 10:19 AM ET #2

    i sorta mess around w/ that type of system in football. i just throw in perception as well. so if two defensive teams are playing and the line is high i wont play the under, but if two defensive teams are playing and the line is low i will play the over. for the most part when you find one of these, the latter applies. ive probably done it 20-25 times w/ about 60-65% success.
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    i sorta mess around w/ that type of system in football. i just throw in perception as well. so if two defensive teams are playing and the line is high i wont play the under, but if two defensive teams are playing and the line is low i will play the over. for the most part when you find one of these, the latter applies. ive probably done it 20-25 times w/ about 60-65% success.
     
    gutcheck
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 10:49 AM ET #3

    So, for tonight, the play will be Under Washington/New Jersey. The total is set at 192, the system is coming up with 186.
     
    Waiting for the Dallas line to come out. No play on the Bulls.
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    So, for tonight, the play will be Under Washington/New Jersey. The total is set at 192, the system is coming up with 186.
     
    Waiting for the Dallas line to come out. No play on the Bulls.
     
    gutcheck
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 11:14 AM ET #4

    No play on Dallas.
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    No play on Dallas.
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 11:47 AM ET #5

    so if it is no play does that just mean the system and actual total are closer than 3???  BOL seems like a good idea..
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    so if it is no play does that just mean the system and actual total are closer than 3???  BOL seems like a good idea..
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 11:56 AM ET #6

    why no play on DET CHI  over under is 182.5....system says 176, looks like a good play to me?  any thoughts?
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    why no play on DET CHI  over under is 182.5....system says 176, looks like a good play to me?  any thoughts?
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 11:58 AM ET #7

    sorry for all the post but dallas is also pointing to over per the system...214 / 219(system)  or does GS scare you off?
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    sorry for all the post but dallas is also pointing to over per the system...214 / 219(system)  or does GS scare you off?
     
    C.R.E
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 12:05 PM ET #8

    yep i like that under
     
    just a thought: w/ such a short range for your avgs have you ever thought about using last 4 games and throwing out best and worst.
     
    gl to you, hope you keep at this for a while
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    yep i like that under
     
    just a thought: w/ such a short range for your avgs have you ever thought about using last 4 games and throwing out best and worst.
     
    gl to you, hope you keep at this for a while
     
    C.R.E
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 12:26 PM ET #9

    milkman, i cant tell you why hes not playing those, but ill tell you why i wouldnt, for this systems purposes at least....two low scoring teams w/ a high total = no play.....and two high scoring teams w/ a low total = no play.
     
    gutcheck didnt say anything about that though thats just me.
     
    on the other hand, the total that the system says is low is huge, and the total the system says is high is tiny. so this is really a lil' over my head.
     
     
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    milkman, i cant tell you why hes not playing those, but ill tell you why i wouldnt, for this systems purposes at least....two low scoring teams w/ a high total = no play.....and two high scoring teams w/ a low total = no play.
     
    gutcheck didnt say anything about that though thats just me.
     
    on the other hand, the total that the system says is low is huge, and the total the system says is high is tiny. so this is really a lil' over my head.
     
     
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 2:45 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by C.R.E:

    milkman, i cant tell you why hes not playing those, but ill tell you why i wouldnt, for this systems purposes at least....two low scoring teams w/ a high total = no play.....and two high scoring teams w/ a low total = no play.
     
    gutcheck didnt say anything about that though thats just me.
     
    on the other hand, the total that the system says is low is huge, and the total the system says is high is tiny. so this is really a lil' over my head.
     
     

     

    LOL, i agree a lilttle over my head too...hopefully we can get some clarification...

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    Quote Originally Posted by C.R.E:

    milkman, i cant tell you why hes not playing those, but ill tell you why i wouldnt, for this systems purposes at least....two low scoring teams w/ a high total = no play.....and two high scoring teams w/ a low total = no play.
     
    gutcheck didnt say anything about that though thats just me.
     
    on the other hand, the total that the system says is low is huge, and the total the system says is high is tiny. so this is really a lil' over my head.
     
     

     

    LOL, i agree a lilttle over my head too...hopefully we can get some clarification...

     
    gutcheck
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 3:04 PM ET #11

    Hey guys, The Dallas is a play, OVER, the systems comes to 219, the total is set at 214. So, over is the play.
     
    The Chicago game is set at 182.5, the system comes to 180, so no play.
     
    I have found by using more than 3 points is the best way to win on this.
     
    Last year I was using 4 games to get the total, but for whatever reason using 3 seemed to hit more often, not sure why. Maybe because these are most recent.
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    Hey guys, The Dallas is a play, OVER, the systems comes to 219, the total is set at 214. So, over is the play.
     
    The Chicago game is set at 182.5, the system comes to 180, so no play.
     
    I have found by using more than 3 points is the best way to win on this.
     
    Last year I was using 4 games to get the total, but for whatever reason using 3 seemed to hit more often, not sure why. Maybe because these are most recent.
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 3:37 PM ET #12

    cool thanks for the help...yeah i must of added wrong on the CHI total...BOL...will see how these play out tonight..
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    cool thanks for the help...yeah i must of added wrong on the CHI total...BOL...will see how these play out tonight..
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 3:38 PM ET #13

    also, what if the line moves?  do you use the opening line, or just wait till last minute to place wagers?
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    also, what if the line moves?  do you use the opening line, or just wait till last minute to place wagers?
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 3:54 PM ET #14

    I must say this system works well with NFL also, I was looking back over last weeks action and this sytem was dead on on must of the one 3 or above either way...Have you tried it in the NFL before?
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    I must say this system works well with NFL also, I was looking back over last weeks action and this sytem was dead on on must of the one 3 or above either way...Have you tried it in the NFL before?
     
    gutcheck
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 4:24 PM ET #15

    I use the opening lines.
     
    I have never tried in the NFL. I did try in the NHL and it worked pretty good for awhile. I am not sure why it doesn't sustain. I will tell you at some point, it does come crashing down. Like all systems.  This year, if I have a 2 or 3 bad days, then I will take a week off and then start again.
     
    Lets see what happens tonight and then tomorrow. It was right on last night. 2 years ago, when we first started we went something like 28-6. It was crazy, made some serious cash.
     
    Good Luck!
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    I use the opening lines.
     
    I have never tried in the NFL. I did try in the NHL and it worked pretty good for awhile. I am not sure why it doesn't sustain. I will tell you at some point, it does come crashing down. Like all systems.  This year, if I have a 2 or 3 bad days, then I will take a week off and then start again.
     
    Lets see what happens tonight and then tomorrow. It was right on last night. 2 years ago, when we first started we went something like 28-6. It was crazy, made some serious cash.
     
    Good Luck!
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 4:30 PM ET #16

    well i just checked it with NCAAF and NFL from last week and out of 20 at least 15 were right on...i would say its a pretty good indicator, but you always have that one game or so..But hey 75% is great..lol...BOL...If we hit tonight Im on tomorrow...lol
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    well i just checked it with NCAAF and NFL from last week and out of 20 at least 15 were right on...i would say its a pretty good indicator, but you always have that one game or so..But hey 75% is great..lol...BOL...If we hit tonight Im on tomorrow...lol
     
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 4:43 PM ET #17

    Wow thats crazy! Looking at the W.Va game for tonight. Be back in a minute.
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    Wow thats crazy! Looking at the W.Va game for tonight. Be back in a minute.
     
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 4:46 PM ET #18

    So, if we look at WVa/Louisville tonight, the total is set at 63.5, the system has it at 47.5, play the Under.
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    So, if we look at WVa/Louisville tonight, the total is set at 63.5, the system has it at 47.5, play the Under.
     
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 5:15 PM ET #19

    i just went to wagerline and capped all system plays for NCAAF this week, so i will let you know how it turns out.  I am also going to do the same for NFL, just to see how it goes...YES already saw WVU under....
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    i just went to wagerline and capped all system plays for NCAAF this week, so i will let you know how it turns out.  I am also going to do the same for NFL, just to see how it goes...YES already saw WVU under....
     
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 5:17 PM ET #20

    i even went back 4 games for WVU  and it gave almost the same number.  Im gonna trust the system tonight and see what happens...
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    i even went back 4 games for WVU  and it gave almost the same number.  Im gonna trust the system tonight and see what happens...
     
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 5:29 PM ET #21

    got a trial run on NHL tonight also...instead of using 3 as the number i took it down to 1.5 or more....gonna be an interesting night...Lets get that
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    got a trial run on NHL tonight also...instead of using 3 as the number i took it down to 1.5 or more....gonna be an interesting night...Lets get that
     
    gutcheck
    gutcheck
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 5:49 PM ET #22

    Tred lightly and lets see what happens. I am playing the college FB game and the 2 NBA games.
     
    GL
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    Tred lightly and lets see what happens. I am playing the college FB game and the 2 NBA games.
     
    GL
     
    MILKMAN0923
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 6:45 PM ET #23

    yes im actually sitting out tonight and just watching...will see what happens tongiht and then put some plays in over the weekend..Hopefully it works..BOL...
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    yes im actually sitting out tonight and just watching...will see what happens tongiht and then put some plays in over the weekend..Hopefully it works..BOL...
     
    MILKMAN0923
    MILKMAN0923
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 7:07 PM ET #24

    i didnt look at A LOT og NCAAF games earlier, but i think the ystem may be better in the NFL.  Ill give NCAAF a try this week and see whats up, but scan over past results looks like it could of been a rough week last week...Only time will tell...
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    i didnt look at A LOT og NCAAF games earlier, but i think the ystem may be better in the NFL.  Ill give NCAAF a try this week and see whats up, but scan over past results looks like it could of been a rough week last week...Only time will tell...
     
     
    C.R.E
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    Posted: Nov. 8, 2007 - 9:15 PM ET #25

    just the one nba game for me....wouldve played wva l'ville if i saw it earlier. dont have anything to back it up, but i think thats the perfect scenario....l'ville and wva score all day and system says easy under. every system cools off, but i think you'd avoid the huge droughts if you stuck to this type of game.
     
    milkman, when youre checking the previous games, are you making sure to leave out the #'s from that actual game?
     
    im actually pretty excited about this. gl fellas
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    just the one nba game for me....wouldve played wva l'ville if i saw it earlier. dont have anything to back it up, but i think thats the perfect scenario....l'ville and wva score all day and system says easy under. every system cools off, but i think you'd avoid the huge droughts if you stuck to this type of game.
     
    milkman, when youre checking the previous games, are you making sure to leave out the #'s from that actual game?
     
    im actually pretty excited about this. gl fellas
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