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Got Balls? High ML--Let it Ride--Juiced Out

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
This isn't for everyone, but at the start of each college season I take $1000 and let it ride on the high ML bets.  I cleaned up last year, so thought I'd do it again.  I figure since you know what team will win, why bet ats and be down to 50/50 if the team covers or not.  Starting last Friday at $1000, I'm up already $680, I occasionally add a few bucks here and there playing baccarat.  Here are last nights plays and tonights.  I only do parlays at the beginning to get the bankroll up.  You still have to do your research and only bet on teams with a clear advantage of winning...
 
Wager Type: Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 1,380.00 / 96.38 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 18-November-2008
Time Accepted: 3:23:34 PM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 1,476.38
 
1
Wager Type: Moneyline
Outcome Win  
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Tulane vs Texas
Game Date 18-November-2008
Wager Line:  Texas -4015
 
2
Wager Type: Moneyline
Outcome Win  
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Youngstown State vs Maryland
Game Date 18-November-2008
Wager Line:  Maryland -3420
 
3
Wager Type: Moneyline
Outcome Win  
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Tennessee Martin vs Tennessee
Game Date 18-November-2008
Wager Line:  Tennessee -7050
 

Wager Type: Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 1,506.00 / 174.71 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 19-November-2008
Time Accepted: 2:55:31 PM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 1,680.71
 
1
Wager Type: Moneyline
Outcome Win  
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: NC Wilmington vs Wake Forest
Game Date 19-November-2008
Wager Line:  Wake Forest -3605
 
2
Wager Type: Moneyline
Outcome Win  
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Niagara vs Villanova
Game Date 19-November-2008
Wager Line:  Villanova -1605
 
3
Wager Type: Moneyline
Outcome Win  
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Wofford vs Clemson
Game Date 19-November-2008
Wager Line:  Clemson -4505
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
No takers on this... Slept in missed the V-Tech game, going to let it ride on Memphis at 4:30
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Just to show you how good it was last year, here was my UCLA/Michigan bet.  Of course tonight I am not touching that game, as UCLA lost most of its talent and Michigan is playing better....
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 14,400.00 / 1,655.17 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 22-December-2007
Time Accepted: 9:58:01 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 16,055.17
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: UCLA vs Michigan
Game Date 22-December-2007
Wager Line:  UCLA -870
 
Prospect
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Posts: 96
Posted: #4
Have you won every game?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
So far this year yes, and last year it was getting kind of crazy so started to cash out...
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 17,900.00 / 497.22 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 5-January-2008
Time Accepted: 7:34:20 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 18,397.22
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Rice vs Oklahoma
Game Date 5-January-2008
Wager Line:  Oklahoma -3600
 
Prospect
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Posts: 96
Posted: #6
What about parlaying 2 games for better odds and less risk?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Yes better odds, but it would be more risk.  Like I said above, I only do parlays at the beginning to get the bankroll growing.  I'm just showing what can be done, especially at the begining of the season where they are some very mismatched matchups.... Alot of talent went to the NBA last year, so it's going to be abit harder this season...
 
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Posted: #8
I know what youre thinking srtzee but this isnt gonna be a winner long term and, even if it is, it wont be worth the risk. I mean you'd have to risk almost $18,000 to win $500. So are you gonna start off risking 1800 to win 50 cuz I know you havent made these bets you have written above
 
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Posted: #9
Got Balls always equals "doing somethinbg dumb but not caring" lol
 
Im not trying to be a dick cuz Ive done this type of shit before but its not a winner. 1 loser and you lose that 18K of monopoly money
 
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Posted: #10
I know it seems I come on to your posts always negative but I dont like chases and I dont like risking 18K for $500, and hopefully you wont someday too
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Really, I didn't make those bet huh???  Then I guess I didn't make this one like I said above Let it ride on Memphis!!!
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 1,694.00 / 33.88 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 20-November-2008
Time Accepted: 8:43:55 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 1,727.88
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Tennessee Chat vs Memphis U
Game Date 20-November-2008
Wager Line:  Memphis U -5000
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
I can post my bets form $1000 to $19000+ from last year.  Maybe you can't do it, but others can.....
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Here I even found one of my soccer bets.  MANU all the way!!!
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 9,614.00 / 1,041.60 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 8-December-2007
Time Accepted: 1:58:08 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 10,655.60
Sport/Period: England Premiership Soccer / Game
Teams: Manchester United vs Derby County
Game Date 8-December-2007
Wager Line:  Manchester United -923
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
Then on the same day I let it ride on Texas
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 10,833.00 / 240.73 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 8-December-2007
Time Accepted: 1:10:57 PM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 11,073.73
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Texas vs Rice
Game Date 8-December-2007
Wager Line:  Texas -4500
 
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Posted: #15
SRTZEE,

I think you are on to something, but (and I am not bashing here) there is that risk of one upset totally burning all your money. However, I think you are on to something. I mean you will probably win 98% of these games.

I have a few questions, since I am interested...

1) Where are you getting those lines? I use betjamaica and all I could get tonight was Duke 1000 and Arkansas 800

2) Do you just stick with NCAA sports? I know NFL is never going to give those kind of ML, but you can get some pretty hefty ML Faves in NBA

3) Lastly, this is more of a thought than a question, but what about modifying your betting...I am not trying to change something that has been working for you, but I would like to do something similar myself.   How about betting a big one, for example your last bet and then taking that money and throwing it in a two team parlay? I am not suggesting big ML parlay maybe just a regular ML or o/u that would pay more without risking a huge amount.

Consider this, the original bet is won pretty easily right? Then risking the winning amount on a parlay (or even just a small dog or small ML favorite) is not that big of a deal...right? Then if you were to win, why not bet it again and then just either keep the profit or use the profit to bet the big ML again and start the cycle over? Not sure if I explained that very well.

What are your thoughts?  BOL
 
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Posted: #16
Patrick, I use pinnacle for these lines.  Yes I stick mostly with NCAAB unless something comes up.  Like the soccer MANU was #1 wile Derby was the worst.  I don't bet the NBA like this because anything can happen on any night, they are all professionals.  While in the NCAA, for the first few weeks you have the top teams playing out of conference garbage schools to get easy wins.  You have to look at many factors, if you have a team that returns 4 starters playing a team where 4 starters graduated, then it's looking very good.  Yes the NFL does have high ML's ex New England last year. I'll post below... I get what your saying in your final paragraphs, but that brings on greater risk....If I lose, then really it's only $1000 out of my pocket.  Either way there is a great opportunity at the beginning of each NCAAB season for money to be won....
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 7,900.00 / 632.00 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 18-November-2007
Time Accepted: 9:55:04 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 8,532.00
Sport/Period: NFL Football / Game
Teams: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Game Date 18-November-2007
Wager Line:  New England Patriots -1250
 
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Posted: #17
It may work now and did last year and who knows it may continue to work.  Wish you luck, but one time a huge favorite will lose and betting 10000+ to win 500 or something is going to feel pretty stupid!  Wish you luck, but to much risk for most bettors!

Good luck!!
 
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Posted: #18
Yes, thats why my first sentence in my first post was, it wasn't for everyone.  You don't have to bet it all season.  Just though I'd show a way to make some quick bucks in NCAAB, while the opportunity at the beginning of the season exists... Like the NC/Kentucky game, I didn't bet that because NC has some injuries and Kentucky could pull it off.  Tonight Washington is a huge fav like -4000, but I didn't bet that either because they already lost a game.  So you do have to be smart with your bets, you just can't bet any huge ML...
 
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Posted: #19
Srtzee,

Thanks for the response. Like you said in the NBA anything can happen...that being said, personally I prob would never bet NFL no matter how big the ML also betting any huge ML faves away is a recipe for disaster as well.

Yeah Duke gave me a bit of a scare tonight, but they blew it out at the end. I bet small, 50 to make 12.70, but now I took it and put it on a parlay like I said (Chicago +1 1/2  +  LA Kings SU in NHL) I am going to try what I suggested and see how it goes from there, building off your suggestions.

So do you stop playing these big ML after the season reaches a certain point in NCAA BB?
 
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Posted: #20
I stayed away from Duke, barely squeaked by last game. It is going to depend on how the season plays out.  You can get around 4 good weeks in at the beginning, but then when the conference games start it's a different story.  Last year there were so many talented teams that could pretty much beat anyone.  Memphis, Kansas, NC, Texas, UCLA.  So have to see how they are playing this year.  No way UCLA should be ranked 4th they lost to much talent..  Right now you can find a couple games everyday, but later on you will have to wait for just the right games, like Memphis vs Rice...
 
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Posted: #21
Yeah, I think Michigan wins SU tonight...anyhow, yeah I blindly bet Duke and then they said on ESPN that S.ill was returning I thing 4 players, that made me a bit nervous.

I will definately check back for what you are playing if you keep posting, so thanks a bunch
 
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Posted: #22
Dude like I said I dont wanna sound negative but this is a recipe for disaster and, like I said, even if it turns a profit in the long haul the profit wont be worth the risk.
 
Youre laying 18K to win 500 which, unless youre betting that the sun comes up tomorrow is AWFUL, period. You lose that game 1 in 36 times and youre down $$$. Remember USC/Stanford, it happens. I know your thought process, you think that these teams will almost never lose and youre right to a degree. But 1 out of 36 and youre down money, no thanks.  
 
Yes I did act as if I didnt believe you placed these bets and to be honest it really doesnt matter if you did or not but the cut-n-paste job doesnt prove anything as you can see in my post below. But Im not here to discredit your stpries cuz, like I said, it doesnt matter whether its 18K for 500 or 1800 for 50 its a bad bet.
 
I know you'll dismiss my opinion and say "ive won all 5 times Ive done it!!!!" but trust me, ask any of the respected cappers on this forum or anywhere and I guarantee 100 out of 100 will tell you its awful, and the chasing they'll tell you the same thing as well.
 
Please dont hink for a second Im rooting for you to lose, Id LOVE to see this work but it wont, and hopefully you'll realize that before you blow 18K trying to win 500 that one day the top ranked team lays a dud against hofstra. But at least you got to show everyone how big your balls are right!!!! Cuz thats a winning formula, betting with balls and heart.
 
GL
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:

So far this year yes, and last year it was getting kind of crazy so started to cash out...
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 179,000.00 / 4970.22 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 5-January-2008
Time Accepted: 7:34:20 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 183,970.22
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Rice vs Oklahoma
Game Date 5-January-2008
Wager Line:  Oklahoma -3600

 

 

WOW!!!! Look at the 180K bet I made!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by SRTZEE:

So far this year yes, and last year it was getting kind of crazy so started to cash out...
 
Wager Type: Moneyline
Wager Status: Win  
Risk/To Win Amount: 1,790,000.00 / 49,700.22 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 5-January-2008
Time Accepted: 7:34:20 AM (Pacific)
Amount Paid: 1,839,700.22
Sport/Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Teams: Rice vs Oklahoma
Game Date 5-January-2008
Wager Line:  Oklahoma -3600

 

I really felt good about this one so I put 1.8 million on it. WHEW, glad it won. Hate to have to tell the wife I lost 1.8 mill

 
 
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Posted: #25

STRZEE, I have a few questions and would appreciate it if you could respond.

1. At what point do you cash out some of your winnings. For example, if you turn 1,000 into 5,000, do you cash out the 4,000 and start over?

2. Can you tell me what sports you play, only ncaab and ncaaf, no nfl, tennis, etc?

3. At the book you play at, is there moneylines for every game or is there a limit where a game has just a spread and no favorite moneyline, for example anything over -5000, the book will take off the board. I know some books don't release moneylines after a game reaches a certain spread.

4. After you keep winning, won't the book just remove your option of betting high moneylines or eventually cut you off?

And let me say, I'm happy to see you winning and wish you luck in the future. I hope you can take some time to occasionally post results in this thread. Currently, I'm taking a small break from betting until the start of next year, when I'll have more money and may consider trying this strategy.

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