Covers consensus fade - Prime time football

Football has arrived. Man I love football.

Unfortunately its very tough to handicap.  However to keep the action junkie inside of me going, I have come up with a simple strategy that has shownn small profit over the last few years, but be careful as previous years success does not garauntee future years success.

Basically my strategy is to fade the consensus picks for primetime games and play them on a labby line.  Each line will be 4 numbers and the line will represet 1% of bankroll.  For ease of tracking will assume a $100 bettor.

I like to take the covers consensus as close to game time as possible.

However I am going to ignore this for the first game of the season.

A local book here in Australia has the pats at -6.5 for -110. Seems like excellent value there, and I would feel like an idiot not to take it.

Will be back Sunday night to start the season.

no sense feeling like an idiot, pull the trigger, and take the Pats -6.5 and enjoy the game

Hae decided to tail one of the guys oer in the NFL forum for the season.
Just doest make sense to me anymore to fade the covers consensus for prime time games.
Good luck to everyone for the season

Going to track for a few weeks.

Tonight - Atlanta Falcons +3.0, 35% of covers consensus,
Price $2.00 (+100) at topsport.

25-25-25-25

Who are you following on the NFL forum? I'm usually bad at NFL, but went 3-0 this week (GB, Mia, Cincy) and I'm on Minn tonight -2. Also have Philly +7 as the final team on a 3 team, 10 pt teaser.

BOL

San Francisco +2.5 43%

Dan I'm following suuma, decided I'll leave out his prime time games and play the consensus fade on a labby line.

Also what's your thoughts for a labby line like this?
Start with 2 numbers or 4 numbers?

I usually use 4 numbers

Good start to the season going an easy 2-0.

Record 2-0
Cleared 1 line, +1 unit.

See you for Thursday night football.

TNF - no play

Felt strongly about KC all week, Im a Denver fan but Ive been saying this since the year Peyton broke all those records - he's past it, and its finally showing.

Also the capper Im following has KC too.

"he's past it"  right! tell that to the Chiefs secondary, I am sure they'll dispute your claim. some advice; one does not 'tail' or 'follow' to WIN when betting sports, one use's their "mind" period.

enjoy the NFL and the prosperity it brings to those who adapt brain-power over the projections of others: use your brains and not the brains of others, you'll be surprised of how fast a winning attitude will appear...happens all the time

Back on deck today.

NY Jets +6 is the pick with 44% of the covers consensus.

25-25-25-25

Playing to win 50

Good luck

I am hearing you SN.

Started off the season following others, but seeing if I stuck to my own methods, I would have been much more succesful.  Moving forward will be making my own plays, stay tuned to this thread to see how it goes.

Good luck

Easy cover for Monday night football.

Ytd 3-0
+$150

consensus says N.Y.Jets +6  44% you called it, nice WIN, nice payout posting a visiting MNF 'dog' and walking tall with a win, gives this methodology merit,

Up next: TNF

Redskins +4 38% -vs- Giants -4 62%

Still 24 hours away, but does look like the redskins will be the play. Will wait until closer to the match before making the call.

The play for TNF 24th September

Washington Redskins +3.0 with 37.8% of the picks currently.  Doubt that will change much.

Price +100, betting 50 to win 50.

SNF prime time:

Denver Broncos -3 67% -vs- Detroit Lions +3 37%  8:35 PM [EST]

typo error, it's 33% excuse me

% movement, updated

After our first loss it is now a good time to explain the omney management for this strategy.

The labby line looks like this after the loss.

25-25-50

What I then do is average the 3 numbers so it now looks like this:
33.33 - 33.33 - 33.33.

Tomorrow we are playing to win $66.66, as sportsnetwork has already let us know, the fade consensus pick is currently Detroit +3.0, but as this is currently +105 at Pinnacle there is a possibility that it may change to +3.5 so will wait until just before game time to pull the trigger.

the line & odds connected to your thread should go through the sportsbook you're currently placing your wager at; if by chance your using PinnacleSports.com you can't ask for better odds in your direction concerning the NFL...best online service available

DET +3  +105 PinnacleSports

DET +3.5  -110 Westgate SuperBook LV