Is this an outdated way of betting? The sportsbook I use lists a free real time consensus report. One observation...Currently, 88% of the public is on UTAH ATS, yet the line has moved a point in favor of UTAH ST. since the line opened.
Is there a general rule of thumb when trying to bet using this method? For example...Fade the public when X% of the public is one one side, yet the line movement has been X or less? Also, Is it best to wait shortly before the start of the game to use this strategy?
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Is this an outdated way of betting? The sportsbook I use lists a free real time consensus report. One observation...Currently, 88% of the public is on UTAH ATS, yet the line has moved a point in favor of UTAH ST. since the line opened.
Is there a general rule of thumb when trying to bet using this method? For example...Fade the public when X% of the public is one one side, yet the line movement has been X or less? Also, Is it best to wait shortly before the start of the game to use this strategy?
It is a flip of the coin. You have some that will just swear on reverse line movement. Those are usually the ones that start the threads when it hits but when it losses you don't see them.
There is a reason your sportsbook shows you a consensus report.
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It is a flip of the coin. You have some that will just swear on reverse line movement. Those are usually the ones that start the threads when it hits but when it losses you don't see them.
There is a reason your sportsbook shows you a consensus report.
Agree there Lipps...... I usually keep an eye on fading who ever is getting 70% or more of the public. Not to say I play them or not. Sometimes I use that as a gauge as part of my capping not to see who the public might jump on seeing value.......... But to see where the line-makers intentionally opened the line at to get that reaction from the public on purpose therefore moving the line or spread in any which direction. If its too fishy I shy away and focus on better matchups against the line or spread. Maybe if you do or not but there is value in ML's instead of spreads in football. Buying hook's to ofcourse Some books you can actually sell points against your favor to get a larger payout if they still cover As you see or research obviously vegas knows how to set lines There goal is just to get the most vig as possible on each game So blindly following a RLM or fading the public doesn't always work. Incorporated with some filters and capping my opinion fading the public or taking RLM's based off of betting %'s can be profitable over the long run streadily with taking the ML's with + money odds.
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Agree there Lipps...... I usually keep an eye on fading who ever is getting 70% or more of the public. Not to say I play them or not. Sometimes I use that as a gauge as part of my capping not to see who the public might jump on seeing value.......... But to see where the line-makers intentionally opened the line at to get that reaction from the public on purpose therefore moving the line or spread in any which direction. If its too fishy I shy away and focus on better matchups against the line or spread. Maybe if you do or not but there is value in ML's instead of spreads in football. Buying hook's to ofcourse Some books you can actually sell points against your favor to get a larger payout if they still cover As you see or research obviously vegas knows how to set lines There goal is just to get the most vig as possible on each game So blindly following a RLM or fading the public doesn't always work. Incorporated with some filters and capping my opinion fading the public or taking RLM's based off of betting %'s can be profitable over the long run streadily with taking the ML's with + money odds.
I wouldn't depend on it but I do watch the public percentage and line moves on the games I like.
For example, if the public is slamming one team and the line is moving the wrong way. That's an indication that big money is going on the other side. When I see that happen and I like the other side I consider it a play. If I'm with the public I get cautious.
The problem is you can't depend on that, it's just a small piece to the puzzle. I've heard of guys that just bet line moves and make a living doing it, but never met one.
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I wouldn't depend on it but I do watch the public percentage and line moves on the games I like.
For example, if the public is slamming one team and the line is moving the wrong way. That's an indication that big money is going on the other side. When I see that happen and I like the other side I consider it a play. If I'm with the public I get cautious.
The problem is you can't depend on that, it's just a small piece to the puzzle. I've heard of guys that just bet line moves and make a living doing it, but never met one.
I'll probably track it for a while first, see what kind of numbers I come up with.
Last night was a good example though...Utah vs. Utah st ended with 72% on Utah / 28% on Utah St. Yet the line moved 1.5 points in the opposite direction. Utah St. ended up covering.
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I'll probably track it for a while first, see what kind of numbers I come up with.
Last night was a good example though...Utah vs. Utah st ended with 72% on Utah / 28% on Utah St. Yet the line moved 1.5 points in the opposite direction. Utah St. ended up covering.
Betting on line movement is based on several beliefs. First, big spenders are smarter gamblers than the public. Secondly, "sharps" bet when line is at optimal price. Usually, underdogs late and favourites early. Third, odd line movement is indicative of sharps betting. However these beliefs may or may not be valid.
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Betting on line movement is based on several beliefs. First, big spenders are smarter gamblers than the public. Secondly, "sharps" bet when line is at optimal price. Usually, underdogs late and favourites early. Third, odd line movement is indicative of sharps betting. However these beliefs may or may not be valid.
Is Cinci a play today since the line has moved in its favor? It looks to be 50 50 on each side thou. Do you only consider it a smart money move if the line movement is on the side of 40 percent or less?
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Is Cinci a play today since the line has moved in its favor? It looks to be 50 50 on each side thou. Do you only consider it a smart money move if the line movement is on the side of 40 percent or less?
I am going to track NCAAF, NCAAB, & NFL games with 90% of or higher of the public consensus one one side with with none or reverse line movement from the opening spread shortly before the start of the games. Nothing fit that scenario in week 1 in college football, although the few that fell just outside those specifications all won.
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I am going to track NCAAF, NCAAB, & NFL games with 90% of or higher of the public consensus one one side with with none or reverse line movement from the opening spread shortly before the start of the games. Nothing fit that scenario in week 1 in college football, although the few that fell just outside those specifications all won.
Is Cinci a play today since the line has moved in its favor? It looks to be 50 50 on each side thou. Do you only consider it a smart money move if the line movement is on the side of 40 percent or less?
yes that was a play, but you have to watch the lines all week, and use common sense and judgment.
For example, Rice fit in for a play on Saturday but it was pretty obvious that Rice was going to lose if you did some homework.
Florida St fits in too.
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Quote Originally Posted by VinniePurdue:
Is Cinci a play today since the line has moved in its favor? It looks to be 50 50 on each side thou. Do you only consider it a smart money move if the line movement is on the side of 40 percent or less?
yes that was a play, but you have to watch the lines all week, and use common sense and judgment.
For example, Rice fit in for a play on Saturday but it was pretty obvious that Rice was going to lose if you did some homework.
I thought last season i hit more winners than loser but can't remember what percentages I was following. It seems that if you have 30 percent of less with line movement works best but i haven't tracked it. Should be interesting how it turns out this season!
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I thought last season i hit more winners than loser but can't remember what percentages I was following. It seems that if you have 30 percent of less with line movement works best but i haven't tracked it. Should be interesting how it turns out this season!
YOU HANDICAPP the game, not the line , or it's movement, the 'public' is balance, the book is juice.. What 5 million 'amateur's(known as the 'public') wager on is meaningless, and should not influence your wager in any way..REGARDLESS of all the whims, and fairytales connected to it's concept, there's no debate, or argument, these are the fact's..
SN
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YOU HANDICAPP the game, not the line , or it's movement, the 'public' is balance, the book is juice.. What 5 million 'amateur's(known as the 'public') wager on is meaningless, and should not influence your wager in any way..REGARDLESS of all the whims, and fairytales connected to it's concept, there's no debate, or argument, these are the fact's..
Sports Network what you say is true but I am just interested to see how it turns out! I am still learning how to handicapp games trying to find any advantage that i can to help me!! Looking back at the picks that went wrong wondering if i watched the line maybe that would have kept me off those games of course it works the other way too! Right now its just a learning process for me.
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Sports Network what you say is true but I am just interested to see how it turns out! I am still learning how to handicapp games trying to find any advantage that i can to help me!! Looking back at the picks that went wrong wondering if i watched the line maybe that would have kept me off those games of course it works the other way too! Right now its just a learning process for me.
These are the three that have over 90% of the public on one side with reverse line movement so far that I have jumped on. Just put small wagers on them since this is just kind of an experiment at the moment.
Marshall +19
Virginia +11
Arkansas +23.5
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These are the three that have over 90% of the public on one side with reverse line movement so far that I have jumped on. Just put small wagers on them since this is just kind of an experiment at the moment.
Sports Network what you say is true but I am just interested to see how it turns out! I am still learning how to handicapp games trying to find any advantage that i can to help me!! Looking back at the picks that went wrong wondering if i watched the line maybe that would have kept me off those games of course it works the other way too! Right now its just a learning process for me.
I respect your insight totally, the mere fact that you seek the 'edge' puts you on the correct trac..To gain advantage in NFL wagering, the concentration is targeted on two concepts, "matchup and performance" after that, the key ingredient is handicapping the coaching staff/HC OC DC...keep in mind, cappin' the NFL HAS NO COMPARISON TO THE NCAA; this is a common mistake made by novice/in-experienced cappers, the variables are numerous in contrast, and information is scarce..best regards, and may you have a prosperous NFL/NCAA 09' season.....
SN
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Quote Originally Posted by VinniePurdue:
Sports Network what you say is true but I am just interested to see how it turns out! I am still learning how to handicapp games trying to find any advantage that i can to help me!! Looking back at the picks that went wrong wondering if i watched the line maybe that would have kept me off those games of course it works the other way too! Right now its just a learning process for me.
I respect your insight totally, the mere fact that you seek the 'edge' puts you on the correct trac..To gain advantage in NFL wagering, the concentration is targeted on two concepts, "matchup and performance" after that, the key ingredient is handicapping the coaching staff/HC OC DC...keep in mind, cappin' the NFL HAS NO COMPARISON TO THE NCAA; this is a common mistake made by novice/in-experienced cappers, the variables are numerous in contrast, and information is scarce..best regards, and may you have a prosperous NFL/NCAA 09' season.....
Sports Network I am just trying to learn how to cap games? Never really knew what info to follow and what to avoid. Thanks for the good words thou. Is there any books you have read that were worth your time? I hope everyone in here has a great football season
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Sports Network I am just trying to learn how to cap games? Never really knew what info to follow and what to avoid. Thanks for the good words thou. Is there any books you have read that were worth your time? I hope everyone in here has a great football season
FYI Missouri, Army, and Colorado st are hitting in that arena as well. those maybe 3 plays for me tomorrow, but not confirmed.
This is just an update for anyone going back and reading this thread. The games noted were for Sept. 5-6, 2009. According to info from vegasinsider.com, all three teams mentioned not only covered, but pulled upsets. This is not a value judgement on the strategy, only adding information for people who are looking at this.
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Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:
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FYI Missouri, Army, and Colorado st are hitting in that arena as well. those maybe 3 plays for me tomorrow, but not confirmed.
This is just an update for anyone going back and reading this thread. The games noted were for Sept. 5-6, 2009. According to info from vegasinsider.com, all three teams mentioned not only covered, but pulled upsets. This is not a value judgement on the strategy, only adding information for people who are looking at this.
These are the three that have over 90% of the public on one side with reverse line movement so far that I have jumped on. Just put small wagers on them since this is just kind of an experiment at the moment.
Marshall +19
Virginia +11
Arkansas +23.5
This is just an update for anyone going back and reading this thread. The games noted were for Sept. 12, 2009. According to info from vegasinsider.com, Arkansas did not play that week, so my guess is that leepetus actually was referring to Arkansas State. None of the three teams mentioned covered, so this made the strategy 0-3 on these picks. This is not a value judgement on the strategy, only adding information for people who are looking at this.
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Quote Originally Posted by leeleptus:
These are the three that have over 90% of the public on one side with reverse line movement so far that I have jumped on. Just put small wagers on them since this is just kind of an experiment at the moment.
Marshall +19
Virginia +11
Arkansas +23.5
This is just an update for anyone going back and reading this thread. The games noted were for Sept. 12, 2009. According to info from vegasinsider.com, Arkansas did not play that week, so my guess is that leepetus actually was referring to Arkansas State. None of the three teams mentioned covered, so this made the strategy 0-3 on these picks. This is not a value judgement on the strategy, only adding information for people who are looking at this.
my picks over the last 2 weeks in NCAAF and NFL posted are based on this....
it can be a fluke but its hitting right now...8-1 this past weekend
Yeah, it's a great start, but you know.........
Do you have a weekly thread where you keep all of them together ? If not it would be great to have a thread in here where they can all be tracked. I know there is a great deal of talk about this and it would be a fantastic acid test for everyone to look at it.
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Quote Originally Posted by powerade:
my picks over the last 2 weeks in NCAAF and NFL posted are based on this....
it can be a fluke but its hitting right now...8-1 this past weekend
Yeah, it's a great start, but you know.........
Do you have a weekly thread where you keep all of them together ? If not it would be great to have a thread in here where they can all be tracked. I know there is a great deal of talk about this and it would be a fantastic acid test for everyone to look at it.
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