College Buckets Shooting for 60%

I expect the early going to be a little rocky so I do not advise betting just yet. I do want to test this publicly though and that's the reason for the post.

I will be keeping things pretty simple and base record-keeping on units. I expect a good amount of plays, but I will be shooting for 60%!

Here goes the first day of picks (all college):

Houston +2

Creighton -12

Delaware +5.5

I really liked Marist +15 and Belmont -3, but apparently others did as well as Belmont has jumped to -4 and Marist already shrunk to +12. Just not comfortable passing a specific line threshold I have set.

I'm also going to track ML plays that I think are very solid. Today they are:

Houston +110

Delaware +200

Bring it! 

Are these computer picks or just your own capping?

Well...they are a combo of the two. I don't really want to rely on either one solely, but the hunch is - when they BOTH align, then it should be a pretty strong play. I like to concentrate on teams that I feel the books have missed interpreting. I am going to attempt winning on ML as well when I think the dog has at least a coin flip's chance of winning. I expect Houston to win tonight and I think the Delaware/Cornell game will go down to the last possession. Anything goes in that situation...

All games are to win 1 unit ATS, risk 1 unit ML.

- make it a 3 unit play (for record-keeping of course) if all three components align.

- make it a 2 unit play if 2 of the 3 components align.

- make it a 1 unit play when there is a net one component. (This has the potential to be filtered out later as the statistical analysis could come into play as a tiebreaker of sorts).

To be safe it makes sense to avoid a play if there is one not-so-good factor, BUT we are testing here and I say balls out.

Slight change in units for tonight:

2 Units on Houston +2

1 unit on Creighton -12

1 unit on Delaware +5.5

ML Plays will just be 1 unit

1 unit on Houston +110

1 unit on Delaware +200

1 unit on Missouri St. +5.5

1 unit on Creighton -12

1 unit on Delaware +5.5


Those 2 look solid....love them...

Tough first day of this trial. I new it'd be tough out of the gate. 

Houston -2.2

Creighton -1.1

Delaware -1.1

Why'd I have to screw up a clean sweep with a late add?

Missouri St.  +1

-3.4 units

Money Line

Houston -1

Delaware -1

-2 units

ML is 0-2 -2 units   Oh-fer

-5.4 units total

Got a bunch for tonight:

2 units Central Florida -7.5

2 units Colorado St. +2

2 units Rice +7

2 units East Carolina +13 (this game has some sharp action as it opened at 17.5 and dropped to 13. I still like it)

1 unit Arizona -10.5

1 unit Virginia +5.5

1 unit Richmond -4.5

1 unit Loyola-Chicago -12.5 (line moving up)

1 unit Texas +3.5

Colorado St. +110

Virginia +195

Charlotte +160

Maryland +275

Texas +145

There are going to be a ton of plays early...

Central Florida -2.2

Colorado St. +2

Rice +2

East Carolina  -2.2

Arizona +1

Virginia -1.1

Richmond  -1.1

Loyola-Chicago -1.1   (line move killed it and should've layed off)

Texas +1

4-5   -1.7 units

Money Line

Colorado St.  +1.1

Virginia -1

Charlotte -1

Maryland -1

Texas  +1.45

2-3   -.45 units

Records:

ATS 5-8    -5.1 units

ML  2-5    -2.45 units

I believe I have learned not to rely on the computer picking ATS. I will only use this as an enhancement to the other strategy instead of the other strategy being used to enhance the computer picks. I will keep paying attention to the computer as the season goes forward as with more info it should get stronger. Too weak now though.

Again...I knew the beginning would be rocky, but feel this will hit a point soon to bring in strong plays.

More to come...

Vanderbilt +235

It's telling me that Vanderbilt has a better than 29.8% chance of winning this game, but if they lose it will be by more than 5 points. Huh, I vote for the upset

currently the score is 28-18 WVU

(this is for record keeping going forward)

Let's see what happens.

2 Nebraska -4

2 Portland St. +6

2 Illinois-Chicago -5.5

2 Texas +4.5

1 West Virginia -5 

1 Rhode Island -4.5

1 George Mason +3

1 Appalachian St. +8

1 Missouri St. -1.5

1 Iowa +5.5

1 Portland +6.5

Money Line

Vanderbilt +235 

Seattle +250

Appalachian St. +300

St. Bonaventure +145

Long Beach St. +400

East Carolina +165

College of Charleston +170

Maryland +170

I will keep tracking this here if these plays begin to show profit. Otherwise this is a ton of work to continue to lose. I am not playing these yet, BUT would like to see this become worth the time. Right now it is not.

Big money!  No Wammies!!  

This isn't working just yet. Glad not betting. I will keep an eye on this to see if it makes a swing.

Probably start a new thread if I tweak and find a good angle.