Posted:
#1
Lets share our favourite baseball systems in this thread. Whats your plans for baseball season?
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Any Good/Profitable Systems for Baseball?
Posted:
#2
Last season, I tried several RL six-game chase systems, I bet the ML if the chase went to a fifth game. That was meant to avoid any major losses, but a study of the strategy revealed it probably didn't make much difference. I played to bet, not win, units, so sometimes I would win less than a unit or even lose money on the chase. It just make for simpler bookkeeping.
1. Good vs. all; bad vs. all. 2. Good at home; bad on the road. 3.Good vs. bad.
The first system cost us major bucks in part because the Red Sox simply sucked at first. There was another problem or two, so we dropped that. Well, my friend quit so I was on my own.
System two involved the best or worst 3-4 teams in each league. If a good and bad team were playing each other, the game counted for each. Best and worst are related to schedule. Playing in the AL East is different from the AL Central. That's why Toronto was in the "bad" group even though it wasn't that bad a team.
This system produced several failures such as the Padres, who got me in both groups. Then we had the Buck Showalter Orioles and their infamous sweep of the Rangers in Arlington. SF's offense, or lack thereof, nailed me.
Despite all that, the system was at 200 units at the start of September. Then I took my eye off the ball. I had added too many teams instead of concentrating on a small number. I didn't pay attention to the end of the season and ran out of games. Looking at the spreadsheet, I failed to bet on a couple of chases, perhaps because the account was low.
The second system still netted 87 units, and looking back would have gone well over a hundred had I paid better attention.
System three was the one that had the fewest bets. As with the others, the composition of the group changed during the season. I suspended a few chases when a good team was on the road or a bad team was at home and one was on the fifth or sixth game. Houston recovered from its terrible start to play mediocre ball the rest of the way. I halted the home series against SL late in the season and forgot to pick up the Astros after that. I would have won the chase if I had done so. The bottom line is that I went from a high of 150 units to 125.
But then I lost almost all of it. I went with the two biggest favorites on the ML on the RL chase systems. I'm blaming it on Kreatture.
My preliminary picks are based on the Hardball Times projections: NY, Boston, Texas and Oakland in the AL with Baltimore, Cleveland and KC. In the NL, it's SL, Cincinnati, SF and LA with Houston and Pittsburgh. That's just a first glance. I'll also see what the folks at Baseball Prospectus have.
What was striking was that you can win money on these systems even with several failures.
I would say a productive little system is to play the good teams at home against the bad ones. I would not have lost a chase under that system. Of course, it all depends on which teams you choose.
The best teams do more than win, and the bad teams do more than lose. Finding the right ones can net you a nice piece of change.
One of the things we do here is to try systems and share our findings. I'm not saying anyone is going to get rich off what I just shared. It's just something I tried.
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Posted:
#4
I'm working on capping a underdog system for mlb. I only capped last years but so far it looks good, I think it would profit big with a aggressive labouchere line, heres the system
take american league teams vs central league and american league west vs central league bet on the under dog. the first game of the series has to be favord it makes no difference if the american league team is on the road or at home.
example would be if boston was playing mn it doesn't matter if boston is at home or away.
same thing seems to work with nl east vs nl central and NL west vs nl central.
there seems to be about 15 C bet losses but over 100 plays so I think aggressive labauchere would work well.
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Posted:
#6
Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:
Last season, I tried several RL six-game chase systems, I bet the ML if the chase went to a fifth game. That was meant to avoid any major losses, but a study of the strategy revealed it probably didn't make much difference. I played to bet, not win, units, so sometimes I would win less than a unit or even lose money on the chase. It just make for simpler bookkeeping.
1. Good vs. all; bad vs. all. 2. Good at home; bad on the road. 3.Good vs. bad.
The first system cost us major bucks in part because the Red Sox simply sucked at first. There was another problem or two, so we dropped that. Well, my friend quit so I was on my own.
System two involved the best or worst 3-4 teams in each league. If a good and bad team were playing each other, the game counted for each. Best and worst are related to schedule. Playing in the AL East is different from the AL Central. That's why Toronto was in the "bad" group even though it wasn't that bad a team.
This system produced several failures such as the Padres, who got me in both groups. Then we had the Buck Showalter Orioles and their infamous sweep of the Rangers in Arlington. SF's offense, or lack thereof, nailed me.
Despite all that, the system was at 200 units at the start of September. Then I took my eye off the ball. I had added too many teams instead of concentrating on a small number. I didn't pay attention to the end of the season and ran out of games. Looking at the spreadsheet, I failed to bet on a couple of chases, perhaps because the account was low.
The second system still netted 87 units, and looking back would have gone well over a hundred had I paid better attention.
System three was the one that had the fewest bets. As with the others, the composition of the group changed during the season. I suspended a few chases when a good team was on the road or a bad team was at home and one was on the fifth or sixth game. Houston recovered from its terrible start to play mediocre ball the rest of the way. I halted the home series against SL late in the season and forgot to pick up the Astros after that. I would have won the chase if I had done so. The bottom line is that I went from a high of 150 units to 125.
But then I lost almost all of it. I went with the two biggest favorites on the ML on the RL chase systems. I'm blaming it on Kreatture.
Are you the douchebag who wrote that thread I heard about who made up the sob story about losing his life???
The Criss-Cross Blitz and RunLine Blitz System NEVER experienced a loss last Season, and for you to say it did means you never played it the way it was supposed to be played. It's not my responsibilty to look after assholes who venture out on their own and play their own spin on a system which has proven success over a number of years.
It's fucking hilarious to hear sob stories from someone who blames someone else for losing all of their money. I didn't realize you had given me any money to invest for you in an account where I had full control over.
WHAT A FUCKING LOSER
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Posted:
#7
Everyone is ten foot tall on the Web. I am sure you would make that rant if I were in front of you.
Second, I don't cuss at people in person or online, but to each his own.
Most important, Kreatture, it was a joke. But perhaps my subtle humor is too much for you. I figured you for a better person.
Looking at my spreadsheet, it is possible that the chase did not experience a loss, but I didn't run it as a straight chase. No need to go into details. My version included attempts to mitigate losses.
Instead of making a factual statement and then asking me how I ran my version of the chase, you decided to resort to name calling. Again, the anonymous nature of message boards allows you to get away with it. People aren't like that in person because they have to face the consequences of their actions.
Now, go ahead and cuss at me some more if it makes you feel better.
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Posted:
#8
Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:
Everyone is ten foot tall on the Web. I am sure you would make that rant if I were in front of you.
Yeah, I would. I stand up for myself in all cases. you can bet your ass if you accused me of something which wasn't true there wouldn't just be a rant. Your statement wasn't a subtle joke. If it was, it was very poor. You stated you blame me for losing all your money last year.. there's no further statement hinting that this was a joke.
The 2 Blitzes were perfect on the Chase, and the spreadsheet I had posted each day were proof of that. No one kept as well documented records for MLB last season as I did. What you should have said is you played those Blitzes according to your own style and not the way I was playing them, instead of blaming me for your own losses.
When you look up the word joke, maybe you should look up the word libel..
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Posted:
#13
Mr. K needs to get back on his meds. No one has "accused" you of anything. To borrow from Bill, you doth protest too much. And I notice that you can't get away from cussing at me on your thread. Is that your version of discourse? Instead of politely asking me where I got my info, you went postal. That's to be expected on a board where people aren't forced to be halfway polite. Get a thesaurus so you can find some more salty language.
Anyway, we're getting sidetracked from the original purpose of the thread, so I'm through commenting on the subject. And if anyone has anything else to say, my inbox is available. I'm going to be playing a RL chase this season and might do a thread on it.
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Posted:
#14
Ask you where you got your info?? Your info came from your own words. You said you blame me for losing all your profits. Doesn't get anymore clear than that..
Anyway, you've already admitted in another post that you weren't playing my System, but a variation of it which you formed yourself and screwed up on, so I guess that's as good as an apology.
You just shouldn't go around and make false statements about people. But, like you said, anyone can get away with writing anything nowadays on an online forum..
And Josh, don't worry there will be lots of good MLB Systems which pop up over the next few months. Some of the good guys aren't around here in the winter and don't surface until the season begins.
Anyway, you've already admitted in another post that you weren't playing my System, but a variation of it which you formed yourself and screwed up on, so I guess that's as good as an apology.
You just shouldn't go around and make false statements about people. But, like you said, anyone can get away with writing anything nowadays on an online forum..
And Josh, don't worry there will be lots of good MLB Systems which pop up over the next few months. Some of the good guys aren't around here in the winter and don't surface until the season begins.
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Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:
what does everyone think about the mlb underdog system. if someone came up with filters it would be more profitable most likely. I think it can still be profitable if 1 unit on A and 2 units on B and 3 units on C bet.
what does everyone think about the mlb underdog system. if someone came up with filters it would be more profitable most likely. I think it can still be profitable if 1 unit on A and 2 units on B and 3 units on C bet.
I think last year it worked well in April, okay in May, and fell apart in June.
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Posted:
#18
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL INTERLEAGUE PLAY CHASE:
The National League has gotten hammered by the American League just about every season when Interleague play begins. Since 2204 the AL is 160 games over .500 vs the NL. That sets up an amazing chase system, and here is how it works:
PLAY AGAINST ANY NL TEAM IN INTERLEAGUE PLAY UNTIL THEY LOSE 1 GAME. IF THEY WIN YOU WAGER ENOUGH IN THE NEXT GAME TO MAKE 1 UNIT OF PROFIT. ONCE THEY LOSE, YOU NEVER PLAY ON THEM AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERLEAGUE PLAY.
THE LAST 6 YEARS HAVE SEEN THE FOLLOWING RESULTS:
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 1: 63 times out of 96 OR 65.6% OF THE TIME
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 2: 19 times out of remaining 33 OR 57.8% OF THE TIME, MEANING 82 of 96 games or 85.4% end in game 2
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 3: 12 of remaining 14 games or 85.7% of the time, meaning 94 of 96 games or 97.8% of the time, the chase ends in just 3 games.
CHASE ENDS IN GAME 4: 2 of the remaining 2 games or 100.0% of the time
That means no chase ever went past 3 losses!
That means 1 out of every 2 years you reach game 4, and one out of every 2 years you never lose more than 2 in a row!
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Posted:
#19
I found these in an old word document I had.
I have no idea how good they are.
[quote]
9dropmb- (play every home team to win 1 game in every home series)
357vegas- (Play the game with the largest ERA differential and the better era playing at home. At least 2.00 point difference and with a era of less than 4.00.
using jimfeist.com)
BDNews Chase- (A.-Play any road favorite in their next four games after losing their previous two as a road favorite. B- Play against any road dog in their four games after winning the previous two as a road dog.)
SSI Totals Chase- (Wait for any team to play 5 overs or unders in a row, then begin a 6 game chase going against the trend)
JKAUL Dog Series Chase- (Play team in series where team in series will always be a dog-i think that's how i interpret it)
AZMAT MLB Dog System - (play on dog 100 to 150 no play if dog has lost 3 in a row
no play if favorite has won 3 in a row
no play if dog going against top 20 era pitcher in that league)
AZMAT Chase #2 - (using filter, chase -1.5 runline for away team in every series using 1-2-4 format:
game 1 - wager 1 unit
if loss, game 2 - wager 2 units
if loss, game 3 - wager 4 units
filter is as follows: chase only away teams ranked in top 20 for away records and drop bottom 10 teams )
BIGDADI The Logical Approach.com/teamrankings.com- (USE
RUN FOR - RUN AGAINST = X COMPARE
ROAD TEAM's X with HOME TEAMS's X
IF one side is +1.5 better, it is a play)
XANBOO SYSTEM- (system xanboo I & II- I-home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or greater II-and stats after producing a win shows the teams wins the next game also being favorite at home)
SUREBET's 60/60 CHASE ( play on home teams to win 1 game in home series where they have atleast 60% win percentage and FADE road teams that have a road losing % of atleast 60% to lose 1 game in road series)
KCFAN +1.5 CHASE- (MLB System
1. We bet on series where the team was swept in the previous three or four game series by the same team. "Swept" means that the team didn't win any games against the opponent during the series. So basically we are betting that the team won't get swept again.
Example: The Boston Red Sox lost all three games in a three game series against the New York Yankees. So we will bet the Red Sox in the next series they play against the New York Yankees.
2. So during the season, please note all the three or four series sweeps and look ahead in the schedule and note the next time the two same teams play. Recommended site for schedule is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/standings/.
3. We will buy one and a half runs when our team in the underdog and we will bet the money line when our team is the favorite.
4. Our goal is to win one out of the three games in each series. After the win we will go on to the next series. We will be using a three game progressive betting scheme. We will bet game one for $xxx profit. If we lose game one, we double up on game two to win our game one losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game two, we double up on game three to win our game one and two losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game three then it is considered a lost.
5. We never bet on a team when their best hitter or pitcher is injured. We never bet in September, because teams that are out of the playoff chase do not give 100% effort. Recommended site for injury reports is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/offshore/.
6. Even though the probability of winning is very high that does not mean losing is impossible. Losses are very rare, but still possible. Please have patience and restrain when using the system.)
htdykid Chase- (First Game Fave Loser RL Chase)
[/quote]
I have no idea how good they are.
[quote]
9dropmb- (play every home team to win 1 game in every home series)
357vegas- (Play the game with the largest ERA differential and the better era playing at home. At least 2.00 point difference and with a era of less than 4.00.
using jimfeist.com)
BDNews Chase- (A.-Play any road favorite in their next four games after losing their previous two as a road favorite. B- Play against any road dog in their four games after winning the previous two as a road dog.)
SSI Totals Chase- (Wait for any team to play 5 overs or unders in a row, then begin a 6 game chase going against the trend)
JKAUL Dog Series Chase- (Play team in series where team in series will always be a dog-i think that's how i interpret it)
AZMAT MLB Dog System - (play on dog 100 to 150 no play if dog has lost 3 in a row
no play if favorite has won 3 in a row
no play if dog going against top 20 era pitcher in that league)
AZMAT Chase #2 - (using filter, chase -1.5 runline for away team in every series using 1-2-4 format:
game 1 - wager 1 unit
if loss, game 2 - wager 2 units
if loss, game 3 - wager 4 units
filter is as follows: chase only away teams ranked in top 20 for away records and drop bottom 10 teams )
BIGDADI The Logical Approach.com/teamrankings.com- (USE
RUN FOR - RUN AGAINST = X COMPARE
ROAD TEAM's X with HOME TEAMS's X
IF one side is +1.5 better, it is a play)
XANBOO SYSTEM- (system xanboo I & II- I-home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or greater II-and stats after producing a win shows the teams wins the next game also being favorite at home)
SUREBET's 60/60 CHASE ( play on home teams to win 1 game in home series where they have atleast 60% win percentage and FADE road teams that have a road losing % of atleast 60% to lose 1 game in road series)
KCFAN +1.5 CHASE- (MLB System
1. We bet on series where the team was swept in the previous three or four game series by the same team. "Swept" means that the team didn't win any games against the opponent during the series. So basically we are betting that the team won't get swept again.
Example: The Boston Red Sox lost all three games in a three game series against the New York Yankees. So we will bet the Red Sox in the next series they play against the New York Yankees.
2. So during the season, please note all the three or four series sweeps and look ahead in the schedule and note the next time the two same teams play. Recommended site for schedule is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/standings/.
3. We will buy one and a half runs when our team in the underdog and we will bet the money line when our team is the favorite.
4. Our goal is to win one out of the three games in each series. After the win we will go on to the next series. We will be using a three game progressive betting scheme. We will bet game one for $xxx profit. If we lose game one, we double up on game two to win our game one losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game two, we double up on game three to win our game one and two losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game three then it is considered a lost.
5. We never bet on a team when their best hitter or pitcher is injured. We never bet in September, because teams that are out of the playoff chase do not give 100% effort. Recommended site for injury reports is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/offshore/.
6. Even though the probability of winning is very high that does not mean losing is impossible. Losses are very rare, but still possible. Please have patience and restrain when using the system.)
htdykid Chase- (First Game Fave Loser RL Chase)
[/quote]
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Posted:
#20
Like most sports, the first month is always the best to bet the Underdogs. Any Underdog System should produce very well, but keep close tabs and realize when the tables are turning and get out with your profit. Once the All-Star Break hits, the top home teams then catch fire as they go on their run to the Playoffs, so the Home Favs are usually the way to go in August.
Can't wait for MLB 2011!
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Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by jhudd70:
I'll be with Kreatture playing the run line blitz, only using the labouch. money management strategy. Also considering betting against the Pirates every road game, and a few select teams at home. (Considering NYY, BOS, PHI, MIN,).
I'll be with Kreatture playing the run line blitz, only using the labouch. money management strategy. Also considering betting against the Pirates every road game, and a few select teams at home. (Considering NYY, BOS, PHI, MIN,).
A few stats on betting against Pittsburgh in 2010 based on six-game RL chases and longest chases.
All games: 80-0 two fives and two sixes.
Road: 43-0 with a five and a six.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2010-schedule-scores.shtml
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Posted:
#23
Every team has at least one 4 game winning streak and one 4 game losing streak per season. I don't like chase systems but there is a very good chance of getting 2 units per team per year. Once a team has won and lost 4 in a row, they are finished.
Some chases can be nerve racking. Washington went approx. 0-7 in trying to get to 4 wins. 7 times they reached 3 wins in a row only to lose game 4. Imagine the outlay for game 8. Fortunately they were a dog in most of the 7 games so it wasn't as bad as had it been PHA or NYY.
Still, a number of teams get their respective streaks out of the way rather quickly.
Have a decent bankroll and be patient. 60 units will there at the end, most likely.
GL
Some chases can be nerve racking. Washington went approx. 0-7 in trying to get to 4 wins. 7 times they reached 3 wins in a row only to lose game 4. Imagine the outlay for game 8. Fortunately they were a dog in most of the 7 games so it wasn't as bad as had it been PHA or NYY.
Still, a number of teams get their respective streaks out of the way rather quickly.
Have a decent bankroll and be patient. 60 units will there at the end, most likely.
GL
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Posted:
#25
I've spent a lot of time researching RL and ML chases for the past two seasons. I've gone the route of picking the worst and best teams at the start, then seeing how they do. I'll post some of the results. Of course, each season is unique.
A problem with this approach is that teams are going to unpleasantly surprise you. Look at 2010: Boston was terrible at the start. TB struggled at home. SD contended until the end. Texas got swept in four games at home against Baltimore. Toronto was lights out at the start. It is possible to lose a few chases and still win money.
I'll post a big of the research. I have more. This is from 2009. It involves the RL and ML chase records with the filter being that games within the group don't count.
NYY: 61-0, 73-0
Boston: 51-0, 67-0
TB: 44-0, 62-0
LAA: 54-0, 76-0
Philadelphia: 64-2, 91-1
LAD: 63-1, 87-0
Totals: 337-3, 456-1
KC: 67-2, 89-1
SD: 64-2, 80-1
Totals: 344-7, 441-4
Both groups: 681-10, 997-5
This involves good vs. bad teams from the same year. I'm going over 2010 and have one loss in the AL.
NYY: 16-0, 18-0
TB: 15-0, 22-0
LAA: 15-0, 20-0
LAD: 11-0, 15-0
Totals: 94-0, 122-0
KC: 17-0, 24-0
SD: 13-0, 17-0
Totals: 95-0, 123-0
KC did have one RL "loss" in this system in 2010, but I'm not through with the NL yet.
Luckydan has an excellent observation. You could pick your teams, then wait for them to have their "bad" stretch before taking them on.
I'll post some other info from last season in a while.
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