Anti-JM MLB 2010

Apr26_JM1_A_Pit_+1.5_Lost_3-17_Unofficial JM due to RPI
Apr26_AJM_A_Mil__ml_Won_17-3___1-0
Apr27_JM1_B_Pit_+1.5_Won_3-7____1-0

May08_JM1_A_Cle_+1.5_-180_Betus_Lost_4-6_Unofficial
May08_AJM_A_Det__ml_-143_Betus_Won_6-4___2-0
May09_JM1_B_Cle__ml_-105_Betus_Won_7-4___2-0

May10_JM1_A_Cin__ml_-120_Betus_Won 3-2___3-0
May10_AJM_A_Pit_+1.5_-160_Betus_Lost 2-3____3-0

May10_JM1_A_Tor_+1.5_-135_Betus_Lost_6-7____4-0
May10_AJM_A_Bos__ml_-190_Betus_Won_7-6____4-0

May11_JM1_A_Bal_+1.5_-130_Betus_Lost_1-5
May11_AJM_A_Sea__ml_-155_Betus_Won_5-1___5-0
May12_JM1_B_Bal_+1.5_-210_Betus_Won_5-2___5-0

May11_JM1_A_SFG__ml_-160_Betus_Lost_2-3
May11_AJM_A_SDP_+1.5_-160_Betus_Won_3-2____6-0
May12_JM1_B_SFG__ml_-190_Betus_Lost_2-5
May13_JM1_C_SFG__ml_-175_Betus_Lost_0-1_____5-1

May14_JM1_A_Chc__ml_-210_Oddsmaker_Lost_6-10
May14_AJM_A_Pit_+1.5_-105_Betus_Won 10-6_______7-0
May15_JM1_B_Chc__ml_-250_Betus_Lost_3-4
May16_JM1_C_Chc

I didn't plan on starting an Anti-JM thread for MLB.
Didn't want to spend the time over the summer and thought we would cruise to win after win with JM picks.
That thought looks dicey right now.
This season (especially May) seems out of wack and is killing many systems.
It also seems like the books (Betus more than the others as usual) are seriously inflating the lines.
So I will start posting JM vs AJM picks to compare as the season progresses.
NBA JM vs AJM had Identical records this past season at around 84-2. Can't remember without looking back at the thread.
I may also post alternative run line odds because if the books want to make the Cubs ml -250 and the Pirates +2.5 -190, I'll take my chances with the latter.
I think the format is easy enough to understand.  JM1 just means Version 1. Other versions don't apply.  May tweak it or spreadsheet it later.
If nothing else look at this as a way to limit your risk with the potential for a double win.  Don't forget to use Betus for AJM picks because of their relationship with Morrison.

Nice work Smitler. 

Question though. How/when do you commit to which system?

Do you sometimes choose one system over the other based on your gut or matchups or momentum?

It's gotta be one or the other starting at game one, no? Unless you are taking the fav on the ML and the dog +1.5 when that applies to the same game.

 

Play both.  If JM is a ml play, then play the other at +1.5 (or +2.5 if the line is as messed up as the Cubs today). Likewise if JM is +1.5 then play the other ml. You may get lucky and win both. Worst case scenario you have to finish out the other chase, but you have bird in hand with the other.
It worked very well in NBA playing both for a combined 168-4 record.
Won't be as easy with MLB with the high juice, but at least we will see if its viable.
I think I have last seasons plays so I will eventually have a back test for last season.

May14_JM1_A_Chc__ml_-210_Oddsmaker_Lost_6-10
May14_AJM_A_Pit_+1.5_-105_Betus_Won 10-6_______7-0
May15_JM1_B_Chc__ml_-250_Betus_Lost_3-4
May16_JM1_C_Chc__ml_-245_5Dimes_-260_Betus

Forgot about two other unofficial plays:

May14_JM1_A_Sea_+1.5_Won_4-3_____6-1_Unofficial (RPI)
May14_AJM_A_TBR__ml_-180_Lost_3-4
May15_AJM_B_TBR__ml_-205_Won_3-2_____8-0

May14_JM1_A_Hou_+1.5_Lost_2-8_Unofficial (RPI)
May14_AJM_A_SFG__ml_-133_Won_8-2_____9-0
May15_JM1_B_Hou_+1.5_Lost_1-2_________7-1

Great work smitler.

The Unofficial plays should have more success under this system because of the [RPI] index.

May14_JM1_A_Chc__ml_-210_Oddsmaker_Lost_6-10
May14_AJM_A_Pit_+1.5_-105_Betus_Won 10-6_______7-0
May15_JM1_B_Chc__ml_-250_Betus_Lost_3-4
May16_JM1_C_Chc__ml_-245_5Dimes_Won_4-3____8-1

JM1_8-1
A_3-5
B_4-2
C_1-1

AJM_9-0
A_8-0
B_1-0
C_0-0

AJM is kicking ass.

It also seems like it would be better to do, b/c the odds on AJM look consistently lower than JM. Does that even out over the season?

 

I guess I am still having a hard time with the idea of starting both JM and AJM at the same time. Seems like you are always shooting youreslf in the foot at the start of a series, assuming it would be rare that you would win both A games.

Is there a way to figure out which one you could start with, and then switch to the other, assuming you won the A game?

You know what I'm sayin'?

Smitler - nice work! My problem is I started back testing playing ANTI JM MLB and found there were quite a few series where the team that got swept came back on the next series and swept...so if there is a lot of that it would kill profits, wouldn't it? Granted I only spent an hour or two only working on the 2009 season but still....thoughts?

Dear nole:
I look at it from a different perspective by reducing my risk.  You are going to win 1 A game for sure. Maybe get lucky and win both on a 1 run game.
Assuming both systems have the about same win ratio you are essentially down to a two game chase cause the first win canceled out the first loss.
I could have explained it better but do you understand where I'm coming from?
What makes it even more attractive is when you get all of us morons on the JM pick you may get even more value by using Betus for AJM.

This is completely experimental and I haven't had time to back test it yet. I will be back testing and tracking this season using 2.5 line for AJM as well.

Dear stickbit:
did your back test use the +1.5 run line? Because if JM was a ml play than the opposite is a +1.5 play.

playing both simultaneously worked well with hoops! 

I get you smitty. Thanks for the reply.

It just sucks, because yeah you are gauranteed to win one, but you are also gauranteed to lose one.

So, if after the A games, it essentially becomes a 2 game chase, why not just skip the first game and wait to see who wins/loses and bet game 2 accordingly?

Or is the difference in juice in the A games usually in your favor once the two are reconciled?

Example:

May08_JM1_A_Cle_+1.5_-180_Betus_Lost_4-6_Unofficial
May08_AJM_A_Det__ml_-143_Betus_Won_6-4___2-0
May09_JM1_B_Cle__ml_-105_Betus_Won_7-4___2-0

JM A loss -180.

AJM A win +100. Nets -80.

JM B wins. +100. Net for the series= +20.

Now, if you skipped the A bets, you are not down 80 going into the B. You are at 0.

The JM B then wins you $100. So, you win 100 for the series instead of 20.

Another one:

May11_JM1_A_Bal_+1.5_-130_Betus_Lost_1-5
May11_AJM_A_Sea__ml_-155_Betus_Won_5-1___5-0
May12_JM1_B_Bal_+1.5_-210_Betus_Won_5-2___5-0

JM A lost. -130.

AJM A wins. +100. Net for A's -30

JM B wins. +100. Net for series is 70.

Now, skip both A's. You are now at 0 instead of -30.

JM B wins, you win 100 for the series instead of 70.

Now, I am just randomly copying and pasting from results you have posted in this thread. Obviously skipping the A's would make you lose out on the 1-run games where both hit.

But what I wonder is, how many double A wins would you miss out on versus how much prfoit you would save if you skipped the A's?

Do you my examples make sense?

Sorry if I am missing your point but:
What if that other chase loses?
What if both win at game 1? now you have nothing to play on.
Guess its just a difference of opinion nole.  All I know is its sweet when I get a double win at game 1 and I get a little revenge on Betus.
You can play it anyway you like, but the way you describe playing it does not sound like JM nor AJM. You should start a new thread called "Chase JM or AJM after game 1 outcome system".

I'm not sayin' my way is right. Just wondering out loud if skipping the A games and avoiding a loss would increase profit.

You are correct that you would miss out on double A wins, but what I'd like to figure out if possible if that is offset by not one of the A games frequently.

As to your first question as to if the other chase loses, any chase, no matter how many games runs that risk. If nothing else, you are now only losing a two game chase.

Just throwin' out some thoughts. I'll see if I can run some numbers.

Smitler,
Yes in each of those losses I looked to see if 1.5 runs changed the outcome...it did not... I love this system...just have to verify we won't have a ton of losses reversing it. If I have some extra time I will continue back testing the past few seasons.

OK. I did not have RL odds to plug in for April 26th Pitt vs Milw and May 14th SF vs. Hous but i did tabulate the other series:

Playing Both A games and proceeding with the system that needs to still win yielded a 175 loss to date.

Skipping both A games and proceeding with the system that still needed a win yielded a 560 loss to date.

So, the 2 series that both A games hit, really boosted/saved that version. It was the difference in the two numbers that I came up with.

Keep in mind that I took the numbers as though being straight bet. Plus it is a small sample size, and I'm missing two series' numbers.

But, it looks like getting that occasional double A win is really huge even though you are going to lose one of the two A's on a regular basis.

Bothe systems would have shown a profit had San Fran and then the Cubs not screwed everyone up.

If you play both systems simultaneousley you must play the A games using labouchere because no matter the outcome you clear at least one number from your labby lines and possibly four.

If you use martingale you have to bet double your normal A wager on your B and C wagers in order to win 1 unit per system\series.

If you use martingale you have tobet double your normal A wager on your B and C wagers in order to win 1 unit per system/series if you skip the A bets.

Devil, I don't see why. You are only betting one system on the B bet if you skip both A's.

So you go with the system that lost the A bet to win 1 unit. Therefore that B wager is really your A wager of a 2-game series.

If you are playing both JM and AJM you are trying to win 2 units for every series.1 unit for JM and 1 unit for AJM.

If you skip both A wagers you have 0 units going into game 2.

When you bet the A games you are gauranteed 1 unit win and possibly 2 units if both systems win on the A bet.

This is great discussion and its interesting to see both perspectives.
I agree with reddevil.
I don't like it one bit when game 1 doesn't hit for both systems, but I see it as more flexibility on deciding how to play the remaining chase.
For me its all about (1) limiting risk with the potential for game 1 double unit win (2) More options for playing the remaining chase and (3) Playing the lines (Betus vs other banks) for even better value.
I'm pretty conservative cause I only play to win on game 1. Game 2 and 3 is used to get game 1 money back usually rounding up to make some change.
This process may not even be viable based on stickbit's information.  I also need to back test for my own peace of mind, but for now I'm playin both ways for small amounts.
What I really want to explore and back test is using the +2.5 line for AJM.  Although the juice may be too much, it may eliminate
any AJM losses.

Hey guys...I'm doing more backtesting (busy so its going really slow) but I might have jumped the gun regarding losses on the AJM system. So we might be good! One thing I realize I didn't account for is 1.5 runs on the 'A' games. I'll continue backtesting what I can and post findings unless someone else beats me to it. -stick