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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    4 GAME CHASE SYSTEM 51-1 SO FAR THIS YEAR

    «First Previous 8910 ... 131415 Next Last»
    FrozenTundra
    sambuca frank
    TONYALLDAY3
    prof8t
    justmaxe
    ...
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    «First Previous 8910 ... 131415 Next Last»
     
    FrozenTundra
    FrozenTundra
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 12:02 PM ET #176

    Curious (not attacking), but why when using the chase system, do posters not include their +/- units. To me that's what matters.  Not trying to attack, just curious as it's part of the equation to justify the system.
     
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    Curious (not attacking), but why when using the chase system, do posters not include their +/- units. To me that's what matters.  Not trying to attack, just curious as it's part of the equation to justify the system.
     
     
    sambuca frank
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 6:26 PM ET #177

    it's like buying a pack of cigarettes advertised as 3$ a pack,but when you read the fine print,you have to buy 3 packs or more!!!!!
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    it's like buying a pack of cigarettes advertised as 3$ a pack,but when you read the fine print,you have to buy 3 packs or more!!!!!
     
    TONYALLDAY3
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 9:01 PM ET #178

    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR SUNDAY
     
    GAME 1:
    NYY 1unit chase
     
    GAME 2:
    PHI 1unit chase
     
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 42-2
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    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR SUNDAY
     
    GAME 1:
    NYY 1unit chase
     
    GAME 2:
    PHI 1unit chase
     
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 42-2
     
    prof8t
    prof8t
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 9:26 PM ET #179

    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenTundra:

    Curious (not attacking), but why when using the chase system, do posters not include their +/- units. To me that's what matters.  Not trying to attack, just curious as it's part of the equation to justify the system.
     

    Because it depends on the money management system being used with the system.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenTundra:

    Curious (not attacking), but why when using the chase system, do posters not include their +/- units. To me that's what matters.  Not trying to attack, just curious as it's part of the equation to justify the system.
     

    Because it depends on the money management system being used with the system.
     
    justmaxe
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 12:33 AM ET #180

    just a quick question, when does ur record goes up and down? its 42-2 but its just game 1 on nyy and u included it on ur record. sory bro just new in mlb betting..  and i wanted to know when will a bet big and small play.. tnx bro...
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    just a quick question, when does ur record goes up and down? its 42-2 but its just game 1 on nyy and u included it on ur record. sory bro just new in mlb betting..  and i wanted to know when will a bet big and small play.. tnx bro...
     
    TONYALLDAY3
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 5:10 AM ET #181

    Quote Originally Posted by justmaxe:

    just a quick question, when does ur record goes up and down? its 42-2 but its just game 1 on nyy and u included it on ur record. sory bro just new in mlb betting..  and i wanted to know when will a bet big and small play.. tnx bro...

    As soon as a team that I'm chasing wins, It's consider a win. 42-2 is the record since I've been tracking it but its 93-3 since the beginning of the season. You cant argue with that record. The system has won money the last ten years. Right now my units are $50. I'm feeling it out for the rest of the year. My units will increase next year for sure after I feel out the best money management process. Say you lose 20units everytime you lose. The system is still up 33units. Hope I answered some of your questions. BY THE WAY THERE ARE NO PLAYS FOR MONDAY.

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    Quote Originally Posted by justmaxe:

    just a quick question, when does ur record goes up and down? its 42-2 but its just game 1 on nyy and u included it on ur record. sory bro just new in mlb betting..  and i wanted to know when will a bet big and small play.. tnx bro...

    As soon as a team that I'm chasing wins, It's consider a win. 42-2 is the record since I've been tracking it but its 93-3 since the beginning of the season. You cant argue with that record. The system has won money the last ten years. Right now my units are $50. I'm feeling it out for the rest of the year. My units will increase next year for sure after I feel out the best money management process. Say you lose 20units everytime you lose. The system is still up 33units. Hope I answered some of your questions. BY THE WAY THERE ARE NO PLAYS FOR MONDAY.

     
    justmaxe
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 6:21 AM ET #182

    tnx tony... waited for your picks everyday.. take a good rest.. tnx..
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    tnx tony... waited for your picks everyday.. take a good rest.. tnx..
     
    UsaSurfer
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 2:58 PM ET #183

    Just to shed a little light into the profitability of this system, even though every single series is different, here is some food for thought.....
     
    This system is always backing a favorite.  Assuming an average of -150 for each of the 4 games in the chase, and assuming you are betting to profit 1 unit in total each game of the system, you lose 41.5 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 41.5 victories.
     
    Assuming an average of -125 for each game of the 4 games of the chase, you lose 25 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 25 victories.
     
    Lets play it safe and compromise between 41.5 and 25 victories erased.  Let's say you lose 31 wins for every sweep, that means this system is perfectly breakeven at 93-3, and is down significantly at 42-2.
     
    Please correct me if I am missing something, but it sounds like this may not be a great investment in the long run.
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    Just to shed a little light into the profitability of this system, even though every single series is different, here is some food for thought.....
     
    This system is always backing a favorite.  Assuming an average of -150 for each of the 4 games in the chase, and assuming you are betting to profit 1 unit in total each game of the system, you lose 41.5 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 41.5 victories.
     
    Assuming an average of -125 for each game of the 4 games of the chase, you lose 25 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 25 victories.
     
    Lets play it safe and compromise between 41.5 and 25 victories erased.  Let's say you lose 31 wins for every sweep, that means this system is perfectly breakeven at 93-3, and is down significantly at 42-2.
     
    Please correct me if I am missing something, but it sounds like this may not be a great investment in the long run.
     
    toft33
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 3:31 PM ET #184

    It's paying off for me but there is always a potential downside.  Chase systems seem to be counterintuitive to profitability. But as you scale down through this system and god forbid it does go to a fourth game, the intent is to make up those unit losses such that in the end - you come out ahead at the end of a chase series. It's really the system that secures the future to the extent that it can. Statistics suggest this system can profit. But by the same token, I would not "bet the rent" because a loss here is significant, even with the smaller probability of losing in the first place. A wise bookie once told me, "Son - a gambler's money knows no home."  There is never a totally sure thing....not totally.
     
     
     
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    It's paying off for me but there is always a potential downside.  Chase systems seem to be counterintuitive to profitability. But as you scale down through this system and god forbid it does go to a fourth game, the intent is to make up those unit losses such that in the end - you come out ahead at the end of a chase series. It's really the system that secures the future to the extent that it can. Statistics suggest this system can profit. But by the same token, I would not "bet the rent" because a loss here is significant, even with the smaller probability of losing in the first place. A wise bookie once told me, "Son - a gambler's money knows no home."  There is never a totally sure thing....not totally.
     
     
     
     
    Ainokea
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 3:32 PM ET #185

    Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

    Just to shed a little light into the profitability of this system, even though every single series is different, here is some food for thought.....
     
    This system is always backing a favorite.  Assuming an average of -150 for each of the 4 games in the chase, and assuming you are betting to profit 1 unit in total each game of the system, you lose 41.5 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 41.5 victories.
     
    Assuming an average of -125 for each game of the 4 games of the chase, you lose 25 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 25 victories.
     
    Lets play it safe and compromise between 41.5 and 25 victories erased.  Let's say you lose 31 wins for every sweep, that means this system is perfectly breakeven at 93-3, and is down significantly at 42-2.
     
    Please correct me if I am missing something, but it sounds like this may not be a great investment in the long run.


    I guess we have to hope that hrabri_pero's computer program is correct because his results on post 20 shows that this system profits.  I personally play the away chase since that one has been more profitable.  Thanks for the posts TONY.  GL
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    Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

    Just to shed a little light into the profitability of this system, even though every single series is different, here is some food for thought.....
     
    This system is always backing a favorite.  Assuming an average of -150 for each of the 4 games in the chase, and assuming you are betting to profit 1 unit in total each game of the system, you lose 41.5 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 41.5 victories.
     
    Assuming an average of -125 for each game of the 4 games of the chase, you lose 25 units after a 4 game sweep.  Therefore everytime you lose one 4 game chase you are erasing 25 victories.
     
    Lets play it safe and compromise between 41.5 and 25 victories erased.  Let's say you lose 31 wins for every sweep, that means this system is perfectly breakeven at 93-3, and is down significantly at 42-2.
     
    Please correct me if I am missing something, but it sounds like this may not be a great investment in the long run.


    I guess we have to hope that hrabri_pero's computer program is correct because his results on post 20 shows that this system profits.  I personally play the away chase since that one has been more profitable.  Thanks for the posts TONY.  GL
     
    toft33
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 3:39 PM ET #186

    Quote Originally Posted by justmaxe:

    just a quick question, when does ur record goes up and down? its 42-2 but its just game 1 on nyy and u included it on ur record. sory bro just new in mlb betting..  and i wanted to know when will a bet big and small play.. tnx bro...

    Dude - i harassed the hell out of Tony when I first jumped on to this system. I was lost. It's a pretty complicated strategy. no apologies needed as far as I'm concerned.

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    Quote Originally Posted by justmaxe:

    just a quick question, when does ur record goes up and down? its 42-2 but its just game 1 on nyy and u included it on ur record. sory bro just new in mlb betting..  and i wanted to know when will a bet big and small play.. tnx bro...

    Dude - i harassed the hell out of Tony when I first jumped on to this system. I was lost. It's a pretty complicated strategy. no apologies needed as far as I'm concerned.

     
    UsaSurfer
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    Posted: Jun. 15, 2009 - 3:46 PM ET #187

    I certainly don't want to trash the system.  I don't mean to insult anyone.  I have been messing with chases the last few years and have managed to make money.  I am also aware that often people will decrease their bets once games 3 and 4 roll around in an effort to be conservative.  But everyone should be aware of the numbers in different situations, run some calculations yourself, and know that if you play this in its pure form, one 4 game sweep is going to do SERIOUS damage to your bankroll.
     
    Again I have a lot of experience with chases, and I do believe the claims that this system can be profitable, but I promise that in its "pure form", at 42-2 it is very negative.
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    I certainly don't want to trash the system.  I don't mean to insult anyone.  I have been messing with chases the last few years and have managed to make money.  I am also aware that often people will decrease their bets once games 3 and 4 roll around in an effort to be conservative.  But everyone should be aware of the numbers in different situations, run some calculations yourself, and know that if you play this in its pure form, one 4 game sweep is going to do SERIOUS damage to your bankroll.
     
    Again I have a lot of experience with chases, and I do believe the claims that this system can be profitable, but I promise that in its "pure form", at 42-2 it is very negative.
     
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2009 - 1:58 AM ET #188

    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR TUESDAY
     
    GAME ONE:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
     
    MIN (PITT TO LOSE) 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 42-2
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    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR TUESDAY
     
    GAME ONE:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
     
    MIN (PITT TO LOSE) 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 42-2
     
    hrabri_pero
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2009 - 6:22 AM ET #189

    i ran my numbers... an the results are:

    for period from 5/26:

    -2,76u  45-2 95,74%  -30,41u

    not spotted chases:
    DET played at KC on 5/26... that was a win for system
    MIN  5/29 win
    CIN  6/2 win

    so -3 potential units/wins

    -5,76u  42-2

    not a disaster

    losses were 
    COL -30,41u
    DET -17,35u

    btw... COL trashed my 'simple system' few times this year... they are wildcards. maybe manager change should be considered as a filter

    numbers for this whole season:

    26,34u  104-3 97,20%  -30,41u

    GLA 
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    i ran my numbers... an the results are:

    for period from 5/26:

    -2,76u  45-2 95,74%  -30,41u

    not spotted chases:
    DET played at KC on 5/26... that was a win for system
    MIN  5/29 win
    CIN  6/2 win

    so -3 potential units/wins

    -5,76u  42-2

    not a disaster

    losses were 
    COL -30,41u
    DET -17,35u

    btw... COL trashed my 'simple system' few times this year... they are wildcards. maybe manager change should be considered as a filter

    numbers for this whole season:

    26,34u  104-3 97,20%  -30,41u

    GLA 
     
    hrabri_pero
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2009 - 6:50 AM ET #190

    results from 6/15 in previous seasons:

    2000.     80,82u  192-4   97,96%  -58,49u
    2001.    -34,01u  173-11 94,02%  -34,96u
    2002.     94,40u  206-9   95,81%  -22,76u
    2003.     32,69u  204-9   95,77%  -80,15u
    2004.  -124,10u  193-12  94,15%  -90,50u
    2005.     30,09u  188-9   95,43%  -26,58u
    2006.     80,37u  207-5   97,64%  -55,71u
    2007.     41,03u  213-8   96,38%  -54,65u
    2008.     70,15u  191-6   96,95%  -47,19u


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    results from 6/15 in previous seasons:

    2000.     80,82u  192-4   97,96%  -58,49u
    2001.    -34,01u  173-11 94,02%  -34,96u
    2002.     94,40u  206-9   95,81%  -22,76u
    2003.     32,69u  204-9   95,77%  -80,15u
    2004.  -124,10u  193-12  94,15%  -90,50u
    2005.     30,09u  188-9   95,43%  -26,58u
    2006.     80,37u  207-5   97,64%  -55,71u
    2007.     41,03u  213-8   96,38%  -54,65u
    2008.     70,15u  191-6   96,95%  -47,19u


     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2009 - 6:51 AM ET #191

    Quote Originally Posted by hrabri_pero:

    i ran my numbers... an the results are:

    for period from 5/26:

    -2,76u  45-2 95,74%  -30,41u

    not spotted chases:
    DET played at KC on 5/26... that was a win for system
    MIN  5/29 win
    CIN  6/2 win

    so -3 potential units/wins

    -5,76u  42-2

    not a disaster

    losses were 
    COL -30,41u
    DET -17,35u

    btw... COL trashed my 'simple system' few times this year... they are wildcards. maybe manager change should be considered as a filter

    numbers for this whole season:

    26,34u  104-3 97,20%  -30,41u

    GLA 

    the Cardinals, and Rockies, have single handedly crashed the majority of disciplined chase systems, putting many BR on the shelve, along with the systems they're attached to...adding filters, are merely handicapping variables in disguise, which no longer makes it a system, turning it into a formula designed for high % 'spot' plays that are proven to be successful...good work pero

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    Quote Originally Posted by hrabri_pero:

    i ran my numbers... an the results are:

    for period from 5/26:

    -2,76u  45-2 95,74%  -30,41u

    not spotted chases:
    DET played at KC on 5/26... that was a win for system
    MIN  5/29 win
    CIN  6/2 win

    so -3 potential units/wins

    -5,76u  42-2

    not a disaster

    losses were 
    COL -30,41u
    DET -17,35u

    btw... COL trashed my 'simple system' few times this year... they are wildcards. maybe manager change should be considered as a filter

    numbers for this whole season:

    26,34u  104-3 97,20%  -30,41u

    GLA 

    the Cardinals, and Rockies, have single handedly crashed the majority of disciplined chase systems, putting many BR on the shelve, along with the systems they're attached to...adding filters, are merely handicapping variables in disguise, which no longer makes it a system, turning it into a formula designed for high % 'spot' plays that are proven to be successful...good work pero

     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2009 - 7:06 AM ET #192

    Quote Originally Posted by hrabri_pero:

    results from 6/15 in previous seasons:

    2000.     80,82u  192-4   97,96%  -58,49u
    2001.    -34,01u  173-11 94,02%  -34,96u
    2002.     94,40u  206-9   95,81%  -22,76u
    2003.     32,69u  204-9   95,77%  -80,15u
    2004.  -124,10u  193-12  94,15%  -90,50u
    2005.     30,09u  188-9   95,43%  -26,58u
    2006.     80,37u  207-5   97,64%  -55,71u
    2007.     41,03u  213-8   96,38%  -54,65u
    2008.     70,15u  191-6   96,95%  -47,19u


    good research...very erratic, high risk, no tilt behavior towards advantage....SN

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    Quote Originally Posted by hrabri_pero:

    results from 6/15 in previous seasons:

    2000.     80,82u  192-4   97,96%  -58,49u
    2001.    -34,01u  173-11 94,02%  -34,96u
    2002.     94,40u  206-9   95,81%  -22,76u
    2003.     32,69u  204-9   95,77%  -80,15u
    2004.  -124,10u  193-12  94,15%  -90,50u
    2005.     30,09u  188-9   95,43%  -26,58u
    2006.     80,37u  207-5   97,64%  -55,71u
    2007.     41,03u  213-8   96,38%  -54,65u
    2008.     70,15u  191-6   96,95%  -47,19u


    good research...very erratic, high risk, no tilt behavior towards advantage....SN

     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2009 - 7:44 AM ET #193

    Quote Originally Posted by prof8t:


    Because it depends on the money management system being used with the system.

    vg answer! equations attached to MM formulas are numerous, changed on a daily basis to fit the play.. Unlike the discipline in the chase, units are manipulative, and handicapped seperately, before attachement. To post units only pacify's a lazy cappers's need to trail ones picks without doing or understanding unit management, or it's application, and letting others do your prescribed handicapping for you..AKA: "bottom feeding with respect"  you have the plays, now apply, and capp the units yourself, every cappers MM is different in form, and can't be explained, or applied by others, like fingerprints, they all come fom hands, but no two are the same..Rating plays by units wagered is not MM, but a novice statement to express leans, using this form, puts a handicapper at a severe dis-advantage.....SN

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    Quote Originally Posted by prof8t:


    Because it depends on the money management system being used with the system.

    vg answer! equations attached to MM formulas are numerous, changed on a daily basis to fit the play.. Unlike the discipline in the chase, units are manipulative, and handicapped seperately, before attachement. To post units only pacify's a lazy cappers's need to trail ones picks without doing or understanding unit management, or it's application, and letting others do your prescribed handicapping for you..AKA: "bottom feeding with respect"  you have the plays, now apply, and capp the units yourself, every cappers MM is different in form, and can't be explained, or applied by others, like fingerprints, they all come fom hands, but no two are the same..Rating plays by units wagered is not MM, but a novice statement to express leans, using this form, puts a handicapper at a severe dis-advantage.....SN

     
    TONYALLDAY3
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2009 - 12:18 AM ET #194

    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR TUESDAY
     
    GAME ONE:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
     
    MIN (PITT TO LOSE) 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 43-2
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    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR TUESDAY
     
    GAME ONE:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
     
    MIN (PITT TO LOSE) 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 43-2
     
    TONYALLDAY3
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2009 - 3:39 AM ET #195

    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR WED
     
     
    GAME ONE:
    SD (SEA to lose) 1unit chase
    COL 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 43-2
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    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR WED
     
     
    GAME ONE:
    SD (SEA to lose) 1unit chase
    COL 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 43-2
     
    justmaxe
    justmaxe
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2009 - 4:44 AM ET #196

    tnx again tony..
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    tnx again tony..
     
    maritimemac
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    Posted: Jun. 17, 2009 - 11:10 PM ET #197

    big keith...   wow man dummy up a little. here it is for you. if a team loses 4 road games in a row wins it 5th road game bet them to lose there 6th 7th 8th and 9th road games, thats road games keith.     still with me keith. if a home team wins 4 in a row and loses its 5th home game then bet them to win there next 4 homes games home games.
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    big keith...   wow man dummy up a little. here it is for you. if a team loses 4 road games in a row wins it 5th road game bet them to lose there 6th 7th 8th and 9th road games, thats road games keith.     still with me keith. if a home team wins 4 in a row and loses its 5th home game then bet them to win there next 4 homes games home games.
     
    toft33
    toft33
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    Posted: Jun. 18, 2009 - 2:33 AM ET #198

    Damn I figured lincecum would be $$ in the b-iz-ank today. Looks like I gotta shrink my unit size for tomorrow's plays.
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    Damn I figured lincecum would be $$ in the b-iz-ank today. Looks like I gotta shrink my unit size for tomorrow's plays.
     
    TONYALLDAY3
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posts: 182
    Posted: Jun. 18, 2009 - 3:03 AM ET #199

    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR WED
     
     
    GAME ONE:
    SD (SEA to lose) 1unit chase
    COL 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 44-2
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    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR WED
     
     
    GAME ONE:
    SD (SEA to lose) 1unit chase
    COL 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
    SF 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 44-2
     
     
    TONYALLDAY3
    TONYALLDAY3
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    Posts: 182
    Posted: Jun. 18, 2009 - 3:18 AM ET #200

    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR THUR
     
    GAME ONE:
    KC 1unit chase
    LAD (OAK to lose) 1unit chase
    NYY (WAS to lose) 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
    SD (SEA to lose) 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 44-2
     
    GAME THREE:
    SF 1unit chase
     
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    SYSTEM PLAYS FOR THUR
     
    GAME ONE:
    KC 1unit chase
    LAD (OAK to lose) 1unit chase
    NYY (WAS to lose) 1unit chase
     
    GAME TWO:
    SD (SEA to lose) 1unit chase
     
    SYSTEM RECORD 44-2
     
    GAME THREE:
    SF 1unit chase
     
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