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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    2nd Bump Set Spike - (The BSS Strategy..not quite BS)

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    Stake24
    Lippsman
    anna31204
    phil_bar13
    jbrent95
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    Stake24
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    Posted: Jan. 30, 2009 - 10:03 PM ET #1

    Here is a link to the original thread.


    Quote Originally Posted by unohuim:

    ever since i started playing team totals, from time to time i found myself confused at these random blow-outs caused by teams who should be finding the under.  Why on Earth did WSH/FLA go over?  How does NYR/MTL go over? 
     
    ..until I looked back in their schedule to find that visitors who have played 3 games in the past 5 calendar days, more often than not, bust over. 
     
    this can only be explained by sloppy play due to fatigue.  if anyone has ever played hockey before, you know that no matter how tired you are, you can always skate hard w/ a puck on your stick...but things aren't so easy when you play defense.  this creates a highly explosive offensive game, with funny penalties - goalies throwing the puck over the glass, too many men, etc.
     
    since dec 1, this system is 6-1.  hardly any evidence.  but i'll continue to monitor this, and update ea day.
     
    i think this could be used quite appropriately as a filter in conjunction to another strategy here.
     
    B2B visitors have a similar relationship to Overs, but not as dominant.
     
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Here is a link to the original thread.


    Quote Originally Posted by unohuim:

    ever since i started playing team totals, from time to time i found myself confused at these random blow-outs caused by teams who should be finding the under.  Why on Earth did WSH/FLA go over?  How does NYR/MTL go over? 
     
    ..until I looked back in their schedule to find that visitors who have played 3 games in the past 5 calendar days, more often than not, bust over. 
     
    this can only be explained by sloppy play due to fatigue.  if anyone has ever played hockey before, you know that no matter how tired you are, you can always skate hard w/ a puck on your stick...but things aren't so easy when you play defense.  this creates a highly explosive offensive game, with funny penalties - goalies throwing the puck over the glass, too many men, etc.
     
    since dec 1, this system is 6-1.  hardly any evidence.  but i'll continue to monitor this, and update ea day.
     
    i think this could be used quite appropriately as a filter in conjunction to another strategy here.
     
    B2B visitors have a similar relationship to Overs, but not as dominant.
     
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Jan. 30, 2009 - 10:04 PM ET #2

    Ott winner tonite
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    Ott winner tonite
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Jan. 30, 2009 - 10:07 PM ET #3

    when visiting teams are 3g5d,
    home teams are 38-12 (25-5 w/ losing rec)
    over is 32-18 (20-10 w/ losing rec)
     
    when visiting teams are b2b,
    home teams are 44-31 (28-15 w/ losing rec)
    over is 44-31 (26-17 w/ losing rec)
     
    both,
    home teams are 23-8 (14-4 w/ losing rec)
    over is 22-9 (14-4 w/ losing rec)
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    when visiting teams are 3g5d,
    home teams are 38-12 (25-5 w/ losing rec)
    over is 32-18 (20-10 w/ losing rec)
     
    when visiting teams are b2b,
    home teams are 44-31 (28-15 w/ losing rec)
    over is 44-31 (26-17 w/ losing rec)
     
    both,
    home teams are 23-8 (14-4 w/ losing rec)
    over is 22-9 (14-4 w/ losing rec)
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2009 - 12:12 AM ET #4

    Pitt, Phi, and Minn are all b2b with winning records on Saturday.
    With the way b2b games have gone I'd say fade these games.
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    Pitt, Phi, and Minn are all b2b with winning records on Saturday.
    With the way b2b games have gone I'd say fade these games.
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2009 - 11:03 AM ET #5

    Really seems Pitt should be on a downer after blowing that game against the Devils last night. The Nucks I wouldn't touch now.
     
    Probably just best to play overs in all of them.
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    Really seems Pitt should be on a downer after blowing that game against the Devils last night. The Nucks I wouldn't touch now.
     
    Probably just best to play overs in all of them.
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2009 - 5:48 AM ET #6

    Ott 3g5d(4g6d) with losing record
    Bos 3g5d(4g6d) with winning record

    If Uno does not return I guess I'll take this over and I'll change 3g5d to 4g6d.
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    Ott 3g5d(4g6d) with losing record
    Bos 3g5d(4g6d) with winning record

    If Uno does not return I guess I'll take this over and I'll change 3g5d to 4g6d.
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2009 - 11:53 AM ET #7

    I think the overs did well yesterday.  Hell the sides did well also....of course the Nucks lost once again
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    I think the overs did well yesterday.  Hell the sides did well also....of course the Nucks lost once again
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2009 - 3:38 AM ET #8

    Ott game winner Bos game loser
    updated record:


    when visiting teams are 4g6d,
    home teams are 39-13 (26-5 w/ losing rec)
    over is 32-20 (20-11 w/ losing rec)
     
    when visiting teams are b2b,
    home teams are 44-31 (28-15 w/ losing rec)
    over is 44-31 (26-17 w/ losing rec)

    both,
    home teams are 23-8 (14-4 w/ losing rec)
    over is 22-9 (14-4 w/ losing rec)


    No plays for Monday.

    I am leaving to go out of town tomorrow to get married and will not be back until the 12th so someone else will have to take over or I'll update when I get back.

    BOL
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    Ott game winner Bos game loser
    updated record:


    when visiting teams are 4g6d,
    home teams are 39-13 (26-5 w/ losing rec)
    over is 32-20 (20-11 w/ losing rec)
     
    when visiting teams are b2b,
    home teams are 44-31 (28-15 w/ losing rec)
    over is 44-31 (26-17 w/ losing rec)

    both,
    home teams are 23-8 (14-4 w/ losing rec)
    over is 22-9 (14-4 w/ losing rec)


    No plays for Monday.

    I am leaving to go out of town tomorrow to get married and will not be back until the 12th so someone else will have to take over or I'll update when I get back.

    BOL
     
    anna31204
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    Posted: Feb. 2, 2009 - 9:48 PM ET #9

    stake24,
     
    That's awesome !!! Congrats and have a safe trip !!!
     
    anna31204
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    stake24,
     
    That's awesome !!! Congrats and have a safe trip !!!
     
    anna31204
     
    phil_bar13
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2009 - 1:31 PM ET #10

    brb with system plays

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    brb with system plays

     
    phil_bar13
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2009 - 2:09 PM ET #11

    this is my first time posting any picks anywhere so keep that in mind as you play along....
    not too many "system" plays,

    Columbus and the over (10 unit)
    Dallas and the over (10 unit)
    Chicago and the over (15 unit) make sure Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers is in net for edm.


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    this is my first time posting any picks anywhere so keep that in mind as you play along....
    not too many "system" plays,

    Columbus and the over (10 unit)
    Dallas and the over (10 unit)
    Chicago and the over (15 unit) make sure Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers is in net for edm.


     
    phil_bar13
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    Posted: Feb. 3, 2009 - 2:16 PM ET #12

    Besides the plays above I personally like...

    New Jersey 3-2 or 4-2
    NYI 4-2 take over
    OTT wins
    Mont wins
    Nashville and over
    Carolina 3-2 (+130)
    Biggest play of the night is Chicago and Over

    GL all
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    Besides the plays above I personally like...

    New Jersey 3-2 or 4-2
    NYI 4-2 take over
    OTT wins
    Mont wins
    Nashville and over
    Carolina 3-2 (+130)
    Biggest play of the night is Chicago and Over

    GL all
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2009 - 9:24 AM ET #13

    Overs took an ass kicking last night
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    Overs took an ass kicking last night
     
    phil_bar13
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2009 - 10:03 AM ET #14

    i pretty much went 50%... (juice) i like a couple tonight... is TB and TOR the plays?

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    i pretty much went 50%... (juice) i like a couple tonight... is TB and TOR the plays?

     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2009 - 5:28 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by phil_bar13:

    i pretty much went 50%... (juice) i like a couple tonight... is TB and TOR the plays?

    I don't even know, the only thing I will look at is the B2B games.  Those can be picked easy

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    Quote Originally Posted by phil_bar13:

    i pretty much went 50%... (juice) i like a couple tonight... is TB and TOR the plays?

    I don't even know, the only thing I will look at is the B2B games.  Those can be picked easy

     
    jbrent95
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2009 - 6:19 PM ET #16

    Yesterday, STL was 3g5d & b2b, losing rec.).... The play was Columbus and the OVER..... Both plays lost.
     
     
     
    1.  TB is b2b, losing rec, previous loss.......The play is to take PIT and the OVER.  (personally, I am passing on the over at 6)
     
    2.  PHO is b2b, losing rec, previous loss..... The play is to take Detroit and the over
     
    3.  TOR is b2b, losing rec, previous loss.....The play is BUF and the OVER.  (I'm not playing the over at 6 -125)
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    Yesterday, STL was 3g5d & b2b, losing rec.).... The play was Columbus and the OVER..... Both plays lost.
     
     
     
    1.  TB is b2b, losing rec, previous loss.......The play is to take PIT and the OVER.  (personally, I am passing on the over at 6)
     
    2.  PHO is b2b, losing rec, previous loss..... The play is to take Detroit and the over
     
    3.  TOR is b2b, losing rec, previous loss.....The play is BUF and the OVER.  (I'm not playing the over at 6 -125)
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 4, 2009 - 7:51 PM ET #17

    Thanks for the update
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    Thanks for the update
     
    jbrent95
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2009 - 12:55 AM ET #18

    Results for Wednesday (2/4/09)
     
    1.  PIT win, Over Win
    2.  DET win, Over Win
    3.  BUF win, Over Loss
     
    System was 5-1.
     
     
    For Thursday,
     
    1.  BOS is 3g5d & b2b, winning rec , the play is OTT. The Over is questionable depending on the ML.  I would stay away from 5.5 @ -120 or higher as this trend has been hitting about 58%-61% of the time.
     
    2.  ANA is 3g5d & b2, losing rec..... The play is NAS and the Over.
     
     
     
     
     
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    Results for Wednesday (2/4/09)
     
    1.  PIT win, Over Win
    2.  DET win, Over Win
    3.  BUF win, Over Loss
     
    System was 5-1.
     
     
    For Thursday,
     
    1.  BOS is 3g5d & b2b, winning rec , the play is OTT. The Over is questionable depending on the ML.  I would stay away from 5.5 @ -120 or higher as this trend has been hitting about 58%-61% of the time.
     
    2.  ANA is 3g5d & b2, losing rec..... The play is NAS and the Over.
     
     
     
     
     
     
    DrLump
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2009 - 12:59 AM ET #19

    Tomorrow...2/5/2009
     
    Ducks @ Preds.......Ducks are 4 in 6 + B2B
     
    Bruins @ Sens........Bruins are 4 in 6 + B2B  (No play for me)
     
    There might be other games per Uno's original 3g5d situation, but I filtered my spreadsheet that only has B2B games behind Uno's situation.....less plays but better spots IMO....I've backtested most teams in similar situations for this season before the break and added filters to the teams that bunk this situational spot, i.e. for some reason they win with tired legs.  Also, back tested these home teams with the TT overs and came up with a 2nd play to add where the situation fits....this TT over is used in lieu of the game over.
    BOL 
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    Tomorrow...2/5/2009
     
    Ducks @ Preds.......Ducks are 4 in 6 + B2B
     
    Bruins @ Sens........Bruins are 4 in 6 + B2B  (No play for me)
     
    There might be other games per Uno's original 3g5d situation, but I filtered my spreadsheet that only has B2B games behind Uno's situation.....less plays but better spots IMO....I've backtested most teams in similar situations for this season before the break and added filters to the teams that bunk this situational spot, i.e. for some reason they win with tired legs.  Also, back tested these home teams with the TT overs and came up with a 2nd play to add where the situation fits....this TT over is used in lieu of the game over.
    BOL 
     
    DrLump
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2009 - 1:06 AM ET #20

    jbrent....sorry must have been typing as you posted......at least we're on the same page with the situational games/plays.....

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    jbrent....sorry must have been typing as you posted......at least we're on the same page with the situational games/plays.....

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    phil_bar13
    phil_bar13
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    Posted: Feb. 5, 2009 - 10:45 AM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    I don't even know, the only thing I will look at is the B2B games.  Those can be picked easy

    Howbout that Pitt game last night... 1st)then
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    I don't even know, the only thing I will look at is the B2B games.  Those can be picked easy

    Howbout that Pitt game last night... 1st)then
     
    jbrent95
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    Posted: Feb. 6, 2009 - 9:57 AM ET #22

    Results for Thurs 2/5:
     
    NAS win, OVER win
    OTT Loss, Over win
     
    For Friday (2/6):
     
    NAS is 3g5d & b2b, losing rec.   The play is MIN & the Over.
     
    I will update the overall results over the weekend.
     
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    Results for Thurs 2/5:
     
    NAS win, OVER win
    OTT Loss, Over win
     
    For Friday (2/6):
     
    NAS is 3g5d & b2b, losing rec.   The play is MIN & the Over.
     
    I will update the overall results over the weekend.
     
    BOL
     
     
     
     
     
    Lippsman
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 6, 2009 - 10:06 AM ET #23

    Really like the Minny play. Not so sure about the over tough
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    Really like the Minny play. Not so sure about the over tough
     
    DrLump
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    Posted: Feb. 6, 2009 - 1:37 PM ET #24

    Before the break.....nashville in this similar situation based on 3g4d & 4g6d w/B2B on the road......the game over hit ONLY once in 5 against - blackhawks(2); Jackets(1); Leafs(1); Avs(1).  The home team TT over ONLY hit once, as well.
     
    Wild in Reg.*1Unit........Wild -170 *4Units  Juicy, but understandable & great spot to pull the trigger. 
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    Before the break.....nashville in this similar situation based on 3g4d & 4g6d w/B2B on the road......the game over hit ONLY once in 5 against - blackhawks(2); Jackets(1); Leafs(1); Avs(1).  The home team TT over ONLY hit once, as well.
     
    Wild in Reg.*1Unit........Wild -170 *4Units  Juicy, but understandable & great spot to pull the trigger. 
     
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 7, 2009 - 11:43 AM ET #25

    Well that went to hell last night
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    Well that went to hell last night
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