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#1
Here is the 2nd system that I will be tracking. I believe that Real QBR and Real Defensive QBR were created by Kerry Bryne. He received a ton of criticism when he claimed that Tim Tebow had outperformed Aaron Rodgers and rightly so.
Using a system similar to that found in Betting System #1 and figuring out the slope and intercept values using linear regression, I was able to create a value. By then taking the difference between that value and the opponent, I was able to find a theoretical spread. I then compare that to the actual spread and side with the team that is "under-valued". I backtracked the system for 2011-12 and found that I would have picked 64% ATS. However, the system is flawed.
The previous year's statistics did not dictate future performance and would have done poorly in picking the spread. However, if one could be fairly accurate in determining how roster and coaching changes will influence Real QBR and Defensive QBR, then it might be profitable.
For example, I think Baltimore's Real QBR will take a hit with the loss of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta; similarly, I expect Arizona's Real QBR to improve with the addition of Carson Palmer and a healthy and improved (but still below average) offensive line.
Without further ado, here are my week #1 picks using my numbers.
Picks in bold.
Baltimore @ Denver -8
New England @ Buffalo +7
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh -7
Atlanta @ New Orleans -3
Tampa Bay @ NY Jets +2.5
Kansas City @ Jacksonville +3.5
Seattle @ Carolina +3
Cincinnati @ Chicago +3.5
Minnesota @ Detroit -3.5
Oakland @ Indianapolis -7
Green Bay @ San Francisco -4
Arizona @ St. Louis -6
NYG @ Dallas -2.5
Houston @ San Diego -3
I did not pick for Miami @ Cleveland (as my numbers were identical to the spread), nor did I choose between Philadelphia @ Washington due to the unknown health of RGIII.
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