Posted:
#1
Feel free to chime in with your thoughts from across Canada (OLG, ALC, etc)
I'm sure my head did a cartoon-like double take earlier in the week when I saw the Buffalo Bills as a favorite. Maybe the "HOMER" betting population of northern New York is bigger than I thought to justify such a puzzling line? While there are no absolutes, teams that win on the road usually run the ball well. The Lions' rushing game is non-existent — 30th in rushing ypg, 31st in rushing average, 27th in first downs. Hmmm, OK, maybe the Bills -2 line is justified... WRONG. This is a case of the unmoving object meeting the resistible force. The Bills are last against the run, and they have only one interception. They're also allowing opposing QB's a rating of 106.8!
Breaking this down further:
- Lions are a cover machine going 7-1 ATS last 8 (tops in the NFL)
- Lions rank higher in both team offense and defense
- Bills undersized corners (avg. 5'10") will have trouble against the likes of Calvin Johnson (6'5")
- Lions solid pass rush, tied for 2nd in NFL with 24 sacks, should force Fitzpatrick into check down style throws
Can't say this too often, but the LIONS ARE THE BETTER TEAM, and are taking points. Lions +2, and ML.
Also love the Steelers tomorrow laying -4.5. Tom Brady is dinking the ball for 7.0 yards per attempt. This is a game when his receiver should get combat pay running short routes against the Steelers' linebackers and secondary. Bring your flak jackets, boys.
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