First off - sorry this is late - Im going to try and get ahead on these.
Im not interested in the drama, Im not interested in view count, Im not interested in challenges, Im not interested in anything other than winning money. Im sharing exactly what I am betting, and if that isnt good enough for you, just kindly go elsewhere. I might win, I might lose - but at the end of the day Im only worried about MY balance, and if that translates in to you learning a thing or two or making a buck or two - so be it. I love the WC, I enjoy the WC, and I want to make money on it.
So I wont be addressing that crap - but I will go through the last several pages and address questions and commments right after this post....
On to the games.....
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Guys -
First off - sorry this is late - Im going to try and get ahead on these.
Im not interested in the drama, Im not interested in view count, Im not interested in challenges, Im not interested in anything other than winning money. Im sharing exactly what I am betting, and if that isnt good enough for you, just kindly go elsewhere. I might win, I might lose - but at the end of the day Im only worried about MY balance, and if that translates in to you learning a thing or two or making a buck or two - so be it. I love the WC, I enjoy the WC, and I want to make money on it.
So I wont be addressing that crap - but I will go through the last several pages and address questions and commments right after this post....
Thank you VAN! I don't know anything about soccer. So when people start blogging and giving their opinions like this Mack guy it gets WAY TOO confusing. I may not know a lot about soccer but I do know that Brazil is going beat North Korea. That's your lock of the day!
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Thank you VAN! I don't know anything about soccer. So when people start blogging and giving their opinions like this Mack guy it gets WAY TOO confusing. I may not know a lot about soccer but I do know that Brazil is going beat North Korea. That's your lock of the day!
Sorry about the short writeups for the next 2 days - if I have time over the next day or two I will update them. Willing to discuss any of them though - just have been really short on time - and drunk too much.....
Previous games...
1. SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) - PUSH 2. Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN 3. SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit) 4. Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN 5. USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS 6. SLV / ALG - no bet 7. Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS 8. Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS 9. Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN 10. Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS 11. Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
TUESDAY JUNE 15
12. Slovakia / New Zealand - Slovakia -200 (risking 1 unit to win .5 unit) - Just think NZ is way overmatched here - but the price is keeping it small for me. First game and -200 makes it only a small play. Predicted Final score Slovakia 2 NZ 0
13. Ivory Coast / Portugal - No bet at current prices - I got a little bit of Portugal back when it opened at +170, but I think the current prices are just about right. Predicted Final score Portugal 2-1.
14. Brazil / North Korea - No bet - please - how can you bet this game? Brazil will win, by how much? I dont want to be involved with this.... Predicted Final Brazil 2-0.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 16
15. Chile / Honduras - Chile -173 (to win 2 units) - I really like Chile here - talent mismatch and style mismatch - Chile will run and gun and put shots on net - when Honduras gets behind, lookout snowball. Predicted final score Chile 3 Honduras 0.
16. Spain / Switzerland - Switzerland +1.5 -102 - (.5 unit) Against my better judgement, I will hold my balls and cough and hope for first game issues for Spain and no goals for as long as possible. Predicted Final score Spain 1-0.
17. Uruguay / South Africa - Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) (also worth a look at +145 to win, I bet the PK, but think that the win price is great too) - This will be my biggest bet to date - think this sets up nicely for Uruguay - they did what they wanted to do against France and got the draw - and now will set Suarez and Forlan loose on a defense that will have lapses. Uruguay is solid at the back, and I dont think you will see the breakaways that SA got against Mexico - and I think now that the first game is out of the way for SA - emotions wont be as high. Im sticking to my pretournament guns on this - if I am wrong it will be a lump.....Predicted final score Uruguay 2 SA 0.
GL all.
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Sorry about the short writeups for the next 2 days - if I have time over the next day or two I will update them. Willing to discuss any of them though - just have been really short on time - and drunk too much.....
Previous games...
1. SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) - PUSH 2. Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN 3. SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit) 4. Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN 5. USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS 6. SLV / ALG - no bet 7. Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS 8. Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS 9. Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN 10. Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS 11. Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
TUESDAY JUNE 15
12. Slovakia / New Zealand - Slovakia -200 (risking 1 unit to win .5 unit) - Just think NZ is way overmatched here - but the price is keeping it small for me. First game and -200 makes it only a small play. Predicted Final score Slovakia 2 NZ 0
13. Ivory Coast / Portugal - No bet at current prices - I got a little bit of Portugal back when it opened at +170, but I think the current prices are just about right. Predicted Final score Portugal 2-1.
14. Brazil / North Korea - No bet - please - how can you bet this game? Brazil will win, by how much? I dont want to be involved with this.... Predicted Final Brazil 2-0.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 16
15. Chile / Honduras - Chile -173 (to win 2 units) - I really like Chile here - talent mismatch and style mismatch - Chile will run and gun and put shots on net - when Honduras gets behind, lookout snowball. Predicted final score Chile 3 Honduras 0.
16. Spain / Switzerland - Switzerland +1.5 -102 - (.5 unit) Against my better judgement, I will hold my balls and cough and hope for first game issues for Spain and no goals for as long as possible. Predicted Final score Spain 1-0.
17. Uruguay / South Africa - Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) (also worth a look at +145 to win, I bet the PK, but think that the win price is great too) - This will be my biggest bet to date - think this sets up nicely for Uruguay - they did what they wanted to do against France and got the draw - and now will set Suarez and Forlan loose on a defense that will have lapses. Uruguay is solid at the back, and I dont think you will see the breakaways that SA got against Mexico - and I think now that the first game is out of the way for SA - emotions wont be as high. Im sticking to my pretournament guns on this - if I am wrong it will be a lump.....Predicted final score Uruguay 2 SA 0.
One can bet them +.5 and also to draw, but if paraguay wins, clearly you are just breaking even....
I probably didnt spell it out well enough....
But what I was trying to say is that I bet it at +.5 goal, but if you dont have that option (which lots have said they dont) then you can bet the draw and the win for paraguay in the right ratio to make it a +.5 goal.
I tried to make a short answer to proactively fend off a question about how someone can make the same bet because they bet with a local who only has a 3 way line....
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Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:
im just confused on the units maybe thats why.
One can bet them +.5 and also to draw, but if paraguay wins, clearly you are just breaking even....
I probably didnt spell it out well enough....
But what I was trying to say is that I bet it at +.5 goal, but if you dont have that option (which lots have said they dont) then you can bet the draw and the win for paraguay in the right ratio to make it a +.5 goal.
I tried to make a short answer to proactively fend off a question about how someone can make the same bet because they bet with a local who only has a 3 way line....
Basically crus a draw or a Paraguay you win the bet.
I personally hate the bet Vanzack has made on this game. If you like Paraguay why not play the 0-0 or 1-0 for Paraguay for far bigger value?. Ok sometimes you might lose to a 1-1 or a more unexpected scoreline (realistically though there wont be more then 2 goals in this game and I ceratinly can't see Paraguay scoring twice). Besides the poor value in Van's bet, I hate the idea of lumping money on average team like Paraguay.
I think there is a far better, safer way of making on this game. I really don't believe Italy will lose this game. If they do then this post is going to look very foolish and my profits thus far on this world cup honestly? very quickly wiped out.
However, I personally think Italy draw no bet for -200 is a Fantastic bet. I have quite a bit invested in this. If the draw hits you get your money back. I have also backed 0-0 and 1-1 both @ +500. So as long as Paraguay don't win then it should be quite a profitable game.
The reason I hate Vanzack's bet is that I feel he is on the wrong side here with Paraguay. Let me give you an example of how my thinking works...
Let's say, I am investing 1200 bucks on this game (I'm investing more but using this as my example).
1000 is being played on the Italy draw no bet @ -200...
100 on the 0-0 @ +500..
100 on the 1-1 @ +500...
If Italy wins thats 500 bucks win, -200 for the missed draw(s) so that's 300 bucks profit.
If the game ends up 0-0 or 1-1 you get your orginal bet back. You win 500 bucks -100 for the other missed draw so that's 400 bucks profit. If the game goes against the general train of thought and finishes 2-2 then your only down 200 bucks.
Of course Paraguay can win, there have been alot bigger shocks in world cup history. But with a team like Italy (great tradition, defending champs) I would rather be on there side then Paraguay's who are +300 and in World cup's more often then not fail to deliver after impressive qualifying campaign's in South America.
Thanks for all the advice. I think I might have a lot to learn from you, especially on things like combining a bet on a no draw and then betting 2 draw scores.
Can I make a suggestion? This thread gets too cluttered with all of the bullshit I post, so maybe it would be easier for me to learn from you if you just made your own thread, and then I can ask questions of you.
Please consider it. Of course - I would love to discuss stuff here - but general protocol is if you bring up new ideas, or want to track your own picks, you start your own thread. Try it, you might like it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:
Basically crus a draw or a Paraguay you win the bet.
I personally hate the bet Vanzack has made on this game. If you like Paraguay why not play the 0-0 or 1-0 for Paraguay for far bigger value?. Ok sometimes you might lose to a 1-1 or a more unexpected scoreline (realistically though there wont be more then 2 goals in this game and I ceratinly can't see Paraguay scoring twice). Besides the poor value in Van's bet, I hate the idea of lumping money on average team like Paraguay.
I think there is a far better, safer way of making on this game. I really don't believe Italy will lose this game. If they do then this post is going to look very foolish and my profits thus far on this world cup honestly? very quickly wiped out.
However, I personally think Italy draw no bet for -200 is a Fantastic bet. I have quite a bit invested in this. If the draw hits you get your money back. I have also backed 0-0 and 1-1 both @ +500. So as long as Paraguay don't win then it should be quite a profitable game.
The reason I hate Vanzack's bet is that I feel he is on the wrong side here with Paraguay. Let me give you an example of how my thinking works...
Let's say, I am investing 1200 bucks on this game (I'm investing more but using this as my example).
1000 is being played on the Italy draw no bet @ -200...
100 on the 0-0 @ +500..
100 on the 1-1 @ +500...
If Italy wins thats 500 bucks win, -200 for the missed draw(s) so that's 300 bucks profit.
If the game ends up 0-0 or 1-1 you get your orginal bet back. You win 500 bucks -100 for the other missed draw so that's 400 bucks profit. If the game goes against the general train of thought and finishes 2-2 then your only down 200 bucks.
Of course Paraguay can win, there have been alot bigger shocks in world cup history. But with a team like Italy (great tradition, defending champs) I would rather be on there side then Paraguay's who are +300 and in World cup's more often then not fail to deliver after impressive qualifying campaign's in South America.
Thanks for all the advice. I think I might have a lot to learn from you, especially on things like combining a bet on a no draw and then betting 2 draw scores.
Can I make a suggestion? This thread gets too cluttered with all of the bullshit I post, so maybe it would be easier for me to learn from you if you just made your own thread, and then I can ask questions of you.
Please consider it. Of course - I would love to discuss stuff here - but general protocol is if you bring up new ideas, or want to track your own picks, you start your own thread. Try it, you might like it.
Thank you VAN! I don't know anything about soccer. So when people start blogging and giving their opinions like this Mack guy it gets WAY TOO confusing. I may not know a lot about soccer but I do know that Brazil is going beat North Korea. That's your lock of the day!
Dude all I did was post winners! More then Van Has! I tried to help people. Let me repeat that. I TRIED TO HELP PEOPLE. As soon as people let me know they wanted me to do my own thread that is what I did..
I am baffled. I am hitting at 75% and 3 of those for big prices and all people want to do is hate on me!
I wish you luck Vanzack and everyone else. As I said my objective was to help people..Just disappointed people don't seem to see this...
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Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:
Thank you VAN! I don't know anything about soccer. So when people start blogging and giving their opinions like this Mack guy it gets WAY TOO confusing. I may not know a lot about soccer but I do know that Brazil is going beat North Korea. That's your lock of the day!
Dude all I did was post winners! More then Van Has! I tried to help people. Let me repeat that. I TRIED TO HELP PEOPLE. As soon as people let me know they wanted me to do my own thread that is what I did..
I am baffled. I am hitting at 75% and 3 of those for big prices and all people want to do is hate on me!
I wish you luck Vanzack and everyone else. As I said my objective was to help people..Just disappointed people don't seem to see this...
And I think I am dead even so far on the first 11 games on wagers - and have the following futures riding....
1. Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units) 2. Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit) 3. Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units) 4. Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units) 5. England to win group C -320 (2 units) 6. USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units) 7. Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit) 8. Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit) 9. Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units) 10. Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit) 11. Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS 12. Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units) 13. NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) 14. Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units) 15. NK zero points -140 (2 units) 16. Switz to advance +160 (1 unit) 17. Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked) 18. Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
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And I think I am dead even so far on the first 11 games on wagers - and have the following futures riding....
1. Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units) 2. Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit) 3. Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units) 4. Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units) 5. England to win group C -320 (2 units) 6. USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units) 7. Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit) 8. Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit) 9. Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units) 10. Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit) 11. Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS 12. Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units) 13. NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) 14. Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units) 15. NK zero points -140 (2 units) 16. Switz to advance +160 (1 unit) 17. Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked) 18. Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
If UK and USA win out, they wind up tied. Please tell me the "formula" for who gets #1 and who gets # 2. Like you, I have a financial interest in this situation.
Sometimes the goalkeepers put the ball in play by an NFL kick-off. Sometimes they punt it. Sometimes they throw it. Are there rules governing which type of entry release they must use? If not, why don't they use the same method all the time?
Thanks and Good luck.
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I would appreciate a little education, van.
If UK and USA win out, they wind up tied. Please tell me the "formula" for who gets #1 and who gets # 2. Like you, I have a financial interest in this situation.
Sometimes the goalkeepers put the ball in play by an NFL kick-off. Sometimes they punt it. Sometimes they throw it. Are there rules governing which type of entry release they must use? If not, why don't they use the same method all the time?
I dont think Slovenia get the same result against an angry England but who knows........Ingaland and USA qualify
Brazil game is loaded with bets Van............many props will go their way.....corners......maybe a small punt on them to score a penalty.....Maybe -1 @ h/t.........team goals over 2.5............will be similar to Germany vrs Aussies I think, hope.....:)
..but sometimes you need , I repeat, NEED to just enjoy a game without thinking about money to remind yourself how beautiful the game really is.......Peace out......great write up
If anyone is tailing VAN or anyone else blindly....................DO NOT COME HERE AND BAD MOUTH WHEN A PICK LOSES>>>>>>>>>>>>>YOU PUSH THE BUTTON SO YOU ARE THE ONE TO BLAME>>>>>>>>>>>>>Good luck with the vultures VAN......keep up the good work.....
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I dont think Slovenia get the same result against an angry England but who knows........Ingaland and USA qualify
Brazil game is loaded with bets Van............many props will go their way.....corners......maybe a small punt on them to score a penalty.....Maybe -1 @ h/t.........team goals over 2.5............will be similar to Germany vrs Aussies I think, hope.....:)
..but sometimes you need , I repeat, NEED to just enjoy a game without thinking about money to remind yourself how beautiful the game really is.......Peace out......great write up
If anyone is tailing VAN or anyone else blindly....................DO NOT COME HERE AND BAD MOUTH WHEN A PICK LOSES>>>>>>>>>>>>>YOU PUSH THE BUTTON SO YOU ARE THE ONE TO BLAME>>>>>>>>>>>>>Good luck with the vultures VAN......keep up the good work.....
SO your just dissagreeing with a bet he made weeks before the world cup started and after Germany won 4-0......Kinda like me syaing I dont agree with Japan to get 0 points after they won today.........Heck why dont we dissagree about Serbia winning the group too.......oh wait......its too late to agree/disagree after the result is in....
Jeez
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SO your just dissagreeing with a bet he made weeks before the world cup started and after Germany won 4-0......Kinda like me syaing I dont agree with Japan to get 0 points after they won today.........Heck why dont we dissagree about Serbia winning the group too.......oh wait......its too late to agree/disagree after the result is in....
If UK and USA win out, they wind up tied. Please tell me the "formula" for who gets #1 and who gets # 2. Like you, I have a financial interest in this situation.
Sometimes the goalkeepers put the ball in play by an NFL kick-off. Sometimes they punt it. Sometimes they throw it. Are there rules governing which type of entry release they must use? If not, why don't they use the same method all the time?
Thanks and Good luck.
Tiebreakers....
In the league format, the ranking in each group is determined as follows: a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches; b) goal difference in all group matches; c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches. If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows: d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned; e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned; f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned; g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.
2. the rule on GK's is 6 seconds - they are allowed to hold the ball for six seconds, and then must release it and cant pick it back up again until another player touches it and it comes back to him legally. They can distribute it any way they like - and it just is preferance whether to punt, throw, or kick - they dont use the same method every time because it is much more accurate to throw than punt for instance, but depending on game situations sometimes you want to do either.......
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Quote Originally Posted by taurus:
I would appreciate a little education, van.
If UK and USA win out, they wind up tied. Please tell me the "formula" for who gets #1 and who gets # 2. Like you, I have a financial interest in this situation.
Sometimes the goalkeepers put the ball in play by an NFL kick-off. Sometimes they punt it. Sometimes they throw it. Are there rules governing which type of entry release they must use? If not, why don't they use the same method all the time?
Thanks and Good luck.
Tiebreakers....
In the league format, the ranking in each group is determined as follows: a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches; b) goal difference in all group matches; c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches. If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows: d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned; e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned; f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned; g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.
2. the rule on GK's is 6 seconds - they are allowed to hold the ball for six seconds, and then must release it and cant pick it back up again until another player touches it and it comes back to him legally. They can distribute it any way they like - and it just is preferance whether to punt, throw, or kick - they dont use the same method every time because it is much more accurate to throw than punt for instance, but depending on game situations sometimes you want to do either.......
SO your just dissagreeing with a bet he made weeks before the world cup started and after Germany won 4-0......Kinda like me syaing I dont agree with Japan to get 0 points after they won today.........Heck why dont we dissagree about Serbia winning the group too.......oh wait......its too late to agree/disagree after the result is in....
Jeez
I know it came in late. But regardless of the 1st game results
I still would have picked Germany to advance, They are a good team and no one in the group matches their talent.
I was somewhat surprised to see him make that bet
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Quote Originally Posted by MWdePro:
SO your just dissagreeing with a bet he made weeks before the world cup started and after Germany won 4-0......Kinda like me syaing I dont agree with Japan to get 0 points after they won today.........Heck why dont we dissagree about Serbia winning the group too.......oh wait......its too late to agree/disagree after the result is in....
Jeez
I know it came in late. But regardless of the 1st game results
I still would have picked Germany to advance, They are a good team and no one in the group matches their talent.
me 
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