World Cup 2014 Thread....

To quote John Sebastion.

Van do you still like France with the Ribery injury? In other words, would you still make the same bet today knowing he was out? Thanks for all the info and gl.

While I mean no disrespect to your acumen, please keep in mind that Ghana was a Uruguayan hand ball and a penalty kick that hit the bar away from reaching the semi's last time.

Van when are we getting your first round of group stage picks? Anxiously awaiting to compare them to mine so I can start placing before too much line movement

Just want to say following the world cup for me will be twice as much fun with a capper like Vanzack to guide the way. Thank you very much.

Agree on Russia making a strong point in this tournament! Watch out!  We are on a nice run this year - winter olympics, hockey championship... why not make some noise in Futbol!!

Good article from Pinny regarding heat and travel 

have to say the write-up done by VAN was a great read..... was wondering if any of the final 4 picks have changed now?  look forward to reading 

Van great analysis,  do you take into consideration about soccer being very corrupt?  Brazil going to let Argentina win on their soil. Has to be considered imo 

You have a much better value in the WC betting the losers rather than the winners. Iran Australia and the US are likely not to advance (or even win a match) and that's where the smart money goes.

On the flip side..Japan winning the group at +420 is like stealing money.

I haven't followed football at all for years now, but I did bet on Japan in their latest friendly. Could the true value be in backing total OVER in each of their group games?

Great stuff van

Meaning you would bet on US, Iran and Australia to advance from their Groups?

Hey guys...  Just getting back from a weekend vaca...

Yes - very concerned about Shirikov.  Very concerned about Ribery.  But all of my bets will go as planned for now...

I am not big on worrying about the weather.  It is there for everyone.  I don't think that I would ever make a bet based on speculation of who will handle it better - but certainly if I see something I will adjust accordingly.  But total crystal ball stuff is not what I like to do....

 

Working on first round game write-ups as we speak.  Should have something up by tomorrow.

Thanks everyone for the comments - I will be much more active now that I am locked in for the WC...

Kapono - a note about lines and what I actually bet....

I have learned at my time here at covers that the best strategy to help people bet is to round things off, make them simple, and post widely available lines at American facing sportsbooks (like 5d for example).  If I post a bet that I make on Betfair or Pinnacle it doesn't do everyone here a whole lotta good.

So when I post units and bets - they are pretty close to what I am actually doing - but not exact.  Sometimes I do worse, sometimes I do better (more often better than worse because of the availability of books that I have).

It makes things livable here at covers.

Thursday June 9

 

Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) – The opener has the hosts against a Croatia side without their starting striker Mandzukic (out with suspension from qualifiers).  I love when motivations align – and this is a nice spot for both teams to come away happy.  Brazil will be happy with a win, any win – and Croatia will be happy with a close loss.  I fully expect Croatia to defend and counter – with Brazil having all of the possession and chances.  I will take my chances that the goal comes late enough that it turns in to a possession-fest for Brazil – and both teams wind down a 1-0 Brazil win.   Opening round games are usually tight and played in midfield – so unless Brazil convert a lot of chances – see this going under the 2.5.

 

I liked Croatia at +1.5 at around even money which was to be had a few weeks ago, but I think that ship has sailed now and am not interested in paying around -130 for the goal and a half.  Predicted final score Brazil 1-0.

 

Van, i really enjoy reading your writeups and you have some great knowledge on these world cups.Looking forward to your picks!

Yes definitely.

And I would bet as much as you can, and then go bet Brazil -1.5 at about +110 and voila - free money.

But if you are just looking to bet a side, I think Croatia +1.5 at anything less than -105 or so is a good bet.  Nothing to go overboard about - but definitely a bet.

A million thanks in advance for all the work you put in.

I loved the question that Nepatriots asked and wanted to get your opinion on that. I know you will be sticking with your current wagers but if you were going to be putting down all of your bets tomorrow how would you approach France? Would you still make all of the same wagers you currently have involving them? Would you scale back units on any of the plays?

going to be on that UNDER in Brazil myself...only wager of any interest in that one for me...GL

Yikes,     Sorry Van, Zamigo,  etal........betting on under 2.5 on Brazil's opening game against Croatia seems " highly illogical ", as Spock would say. Goals matter ! Brazil has a wealth of offensive talent. Croatia aren't known for superior defensive, rather their offensive exploits. I'm very curious as to any reasoning you might offer.