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    All Forums | Soccer

    World Cup 2014 Thread....

    «First Previous 345 ... 404142 Next Last»
    vanzack
    MuggsyBogues
    composite
    TRAIN69
    sharpstick
    ...
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    Search
    Views: 207547
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    «First Previous 345 ... 404142 Next Last»
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 6:51 PM ET #51

    Some interesting notes about first round games....

    In 2010 - 8 games were under 2 goals, 6 had exactly 2 goals, and only 2 had more than 2 goals.

    In those games - 11 of the 16 games had one team that did not score.

    So the under 2 goals bet was 8-2, while the under 2.5 bet was 14-2.

    In 2006 - 10 of the 16 games had one team that did not score.

     

    Very limited sample size obviously - not sure if this is of use at all - just interesting.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply

    Some interesting notes about first round games....

    In 2010 - 8 games were under 2 goals, 6 had exactly 2 goals, and only 2 had more than 2 goals.

    In those games - 11 of the 16 games had one team that did not score.

    So the under 2 goals bet was 8-2, while the under 2.5 bet was 14-2.

    In 2006 - 10 of the 16 games had one team that did not score.

     

    Very limited sample size obviously - not sure if this is of use at all - just interesting.

     
    MuggsyBogues
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 7:15 PM ET #52

    Identifying the tight-behind teams could make a bank. See Greece (both official and friendly matches in the past 5-6 years.... or more)
    Reply
    Identifying the tight-behind teams could make a bank. See Greece (both official and friendly matches in the past 5-6 years.... or more)
     
    composite
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 7:41 PM ET #53

    vanzack - any concern about Russia losing Roman Shirokov?

    Reply

    vanzack - any concern about Russia losing Roman Shirokov?

     
    MuggsyBogues
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 8:23 PM ET #54

    Vanzack. There's a game going on right now. Japan was a heavy fav (-200) to beat Zambia... who scored first two goals of the game fairly quickly.

    Based on your description of the team as strong offensively and sketchy on defense, I think OVER is a very strong bet in this friendly. It's 1-2 halftime right now and Zambia's main goalkeeper got injured/substituted in the 30th minute, just before Japan pulled one back from a penalty kick.

    O4.5 goals in match pays around +118

    Reply
    Vanzack. There's a game going on right now. Japan was a heavy fav (-200) to beat Zambia... who scored first two goals of the game fairly quickly.

    Based on your description of the team as strong offensively and sketchy on defense, I think OVER is a very strong bet in this friendly. It's 1-2 halftime right now and Zambia's main goalkeeper got injured/substituted in the 30th minute, just before Japan pulled one back from a penalty kick.

    O4.5 goals in match pays around +118

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 9:06 PM ET #55

    Portugal WC Champs +2500 interest you at all? Any darkhorse predictions, ie a team that could get hot and win a couple they shouldnt?

     

    Van

    Reply

    Portugal WC Champs +2500 interest you at all? Any darkhorse predictions, ie a team that could get hot and win a couple they shouldnt?

     

    Van

     
    MuggsyBogues
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 9:07 PM ET #56

    I started out betting this game 'Japan to win to Nil'... lost it before 10th minute... and got everything back (with inplay wagers) now that the game is 3-2 to Japan.
    Reply
    I started out betting this game 'Japan to win to Nil'... lost it before 10th minute... and got everything back (with inplay wagers) now that the game is 3-2 to Japan.
     
    MuggsyBogues
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 9:19 PM ET #57

    I just have to laugh at Japan's effort. I actually have a bet that pays roughly +700 and is now hinging on this game ending in a draw.
    3-3 with 2 minutes to play. WC is still a week away and I'm already profiting from your advice.

    Reply
    I just have to laugh at Japan's effort. I actually have a bet that pays roughly +700 and is now hinging on this game ending in a draw.
    3-3 with 2 minutes to play. WC is still a week away and I'm already profiting from your advice.

     
    sharpstick
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 9:40 PM ET #58

    Ribery is a great player, but it is France.

    Let's be real, they will replace him with another great player, and now their may be even more value on France.  
    Reply
    Ribery is a great player, but it is France.

    Let's be real, they will replace him with another great player, and now their may be even more value on France.  
     
    MuggsyBogues
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 10:26 PM ET #59

    How much value is Ribery on defense? A little more than I am?

    I hate that he is injured but if noone can score on you, you're bound to win.
    Reply
    How much value is Ribery on defense? A little more than I am?

    I hate that he is injured but if noone can score on you, you're bound to win.
     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 11:13 PM ET #60

    Van, What can I say.. You 'da man when it comes to soccer.  Great analysis as always and you dissect to great levels.

    Ribery it seems a huge disappoint for the French today with his withdrawal..  

    I'm going against with you on this one, but I see the Mexico advancing on a top-heavy group that obviously has the Brazilians.  They lose their last two games (before 8-unbeaten games), but I see the Mexicans to advance to 16.

    Let's get this cup started !!!  

     

    Reply

    Van, What can I say.. You 'da man when it comes to soccer.  Great analysis as always and you dissect to great levels.

    Ribery it seems a huge disappoint for the French today with his withdrawal..  

    I'm going against with you on this one, but I see the Mexico advancing on a top-heavy group that obviously has the Brazilians.  They lose their last two games (before 8-unbeaten games), but I see the Mexicans to advance to 16.

    Let's get this cup started !!!  

     

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2014 - 11:19 PM ET #61

    For those of you doubting Ribery's impact for France, he was Europe's third leading scorer this year  , behind Ronaldo & Messi.... 

    That is huge.

    Reply

    For those of you doubting Ribery's impact for France, he was Europe's third leading scorer this year  , behind Ronaldo & Messi.... 

    That is huge.

     
    composite
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 12:06 AM ET #62

    Croatia lost their Danijel Pranjic, one of their defenders, in today's game and he's out for the world cup.  Does that matter?

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/soccer-pranjic-injury-mars-croatias-warmup-win-over-010428905--sow.html#IZo4tuX

     

     

    Reply

    Croatia lost their Danijel Pranjic, one of their defenders, in today's game and he's out for the world cup.  Does that matter?

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/soccer-pranjic-injury-mars-croatias-warmup-win-over-010428905--sow.html#IZo4tuX

     

     

     
    Jimmag
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 10:33 AM ET #63


    Great write up best of luck Van.

    5 days to go.

    Go USA!
    Reply

    Great write up best of luck Van.

    5 days to go.

    Go USA!
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 12:11 PM ET #64

    Thank you very much Van for your thoughts here, I'm sure I'm not the only one who has been waiting for this set of posts for damn near 4 years now.

    Always love reading your thoughts, thank you for sharing


    Reply
    Thank you very much Van for your thoughts here, I'm sure I'm not the only one who has been waiting for this set of posts for damn near 4 years now.

    Always love reading your thoughts, thank you for sharing


     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 12:16 PM ET #65

    Van --

    Quick thought on one of your plays. If you like Croatia to advance from Group A at +115, wouldn't it be smarter to take the dual advance play of Brazil/Croatia and instead get +130? Extra 15 cents of value.
    Reply
    Van --

    Quick thought on one of your plays. If you like Croatia to advance from Group A at +115, wouldn't it be smarter to take the dual advance play of Brazil/Croatia and instead get +130? Extra 15 cents of value.
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 12:18 PM ET #66

    The same thinking Van would apply to you "Netherlands will not advance" play at +135 -- why not instead go "Spain/Chile to advance" at +170?
    Reply
    The same thinking Van would apply to you "Netherlands will not advance" play at +135 -- why not instead go "Spain/Chile to advance" at +170?
     
    mikebdb
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 12:25 PM ET #67

    good insight ... but i disagree that the usa have no scoring threat as you say...but good luck to you
    Reply
    good insight ... but i disagree that the usa have no scoring threat as you say...but good luck to you
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 12:29 PM ET #68

    Quote Originally Posted by mikebdb:

    good insight ... but i disagree that the usa have no scoring threat as you say...but good luck to you


    Who is their scoring threat? Please don't say Altidore.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by mikebdb:

    good insight ... but i disagree that the usa have no scoring threat as you say...but good luck to you


    Who is their scoring threat? Please don't say Altidore.
     
    mikebdb
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 3:19 PM ET #69

    every heard of a guy name dempsy
    Reply
    every heard of a guy name dempsy
     
    lbcake
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 3:59 PM ET #70

    oh my


    Anyhoo...who's this Van-sack fella?

    Reply
    oh my


    Anyhoo...who's this Van-sack fella?

     
    HatOnBed
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 4:12 PM ET #71

    BOL Van!  Truly is the "greatest sporting spectacle"
    Reply
    BOL Van!  Truly is the "greatest sporting spectacle"
     
    Barnstorm
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    Posted: Jun. 7, 2014 - 6:00 PM ET #72

    Good stuff Van.

    Just pointing out that based on odds to win it all, your biggest drawdown is on Columbia. Columbia is 26-1 to win it all and you don't have them getting out of their Group - being bested by Japan (126-1) and Greece (201-1).

    Only other "upsets" you have down the road are Japan over Italy and France over Brazil.

    Are you entering Mega Justo for a chance at $100 Million to be paid in BitCoin?! Somebody will win it even if there is no Perfect Bracket, unlike that Cheap skate Warren Buffett!

    GL!
    Reply
    Good stuff Van.

    Just pointing out that based on odds to win it all, your biggest drawdown is on Columbia. Columbia is 26-1 to win it all and you don't have them getting out of their Group - being bested by Japan (126-1) and Greece (201-1).

    Only other "upsets" you have down the road are Japan over Italy and France over Brazil.

    Are you entering Mega Justo for a chance at $100 Million to be paid in BitCoin?! Somebody will win it even if there is no Perfect Bracket, unlike that Cheap skate Warren Buffett!

    GL!
     
    Rave_Green
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2014 - 2:55 AM ET #73

    Hey Vanzack.

    I just bumped the hot seat thread with a few questions. So, whenever you get time, it would be appreciated.

    Finally, Altidore breaks out of his slump! Hopefully, it's a good sign.

     

     

    Reply

    Hey Vanzack.

    I just bumped the hot seat thread with a few questions. So, whenever you get time, it would be appreciated.

    Finally, Altidore breaks out of his slump! Hopefully, it's a good sign.

     

     

     
    yestoeverything
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2014 - 3:53 AM ET #74

    Quote Originally Posted by franz555:

    Vanzack,     Some interesting thoughts. Appreciate the time and effort you put in. I think you over valued Portugal, and under valued your USA team. Also like South Korea to make some waves. And that is part of the appeal to such an international extravaganza, anything can happen, and usually does. I look forward to seeing your game by game picks. 

    BOL 
    I agree Portugal is vulnerable, and I think Ghana can beat the USA. If Ghana can draw with Portugal, they might sneak in the back door. They will also be less affected by the heat than any other team in the group. Half unit to advance at +262.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by franz555:

    Vanzack,     Some interesting thoughts. Appreciate the time and effort you put in. I think you over valued Portugal, and under valued your USA team. Also like South Korea to make some waves. And that is part of the appeal to such an international extravaganza, anything can happen, and usually does. I look forward to seeing your game by game picks. 

    BOL 
    I agree Portugal is vulnerable, and I think Ghana can beat the USA. If Ghana can draw with Portugal, they might sneak in the back door. They will also be less affected by the heat than any other team in the group. Half unit to advance at +262.
     
     
    yestoeverything
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2014 - 4:14 AM ET #75

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Pre-tournament bets summary:

     

    Croatia to Advance +115 (1.5 units)

    Mexico to finish last +270 (.5 unit)

    Netherlands not to advance from group +135 (1 unit)

    Japan to win group +420 (1 unit)

    Columbia not to win group -110 (1 unit)

    Uruguay to win group +190 (1.5 units)

    France to win WC +2500 (1 unit)
    France to win group -130 (3 units)

    France / Switzerland to advance +110 (.5 unit)

    France to reach quarterfinals +100 (1 unit)

    Germany / Portugal to advance -120 (1 unit)

    USA to finish last +120 (1 units)

    USA under 2.5 points +110 (2 units)

    Russia to win group +240 (1.5 units)

    S Korea to come in last in group +220 (1 unit)


    From an investing point of view, I am inclined to tail it all. I suspect it will produce profit, and I would encourage others to do the same. Let this strategy be known as buying "The Vanzack Index".

    Good luck to all.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Pre-tournament bets summary:

     

    Croatia to Advance +115 (1.5 units)

    Mexico to finish last +270 (.5 unit)

    Netherlands not to advance from group +135 (1 unit)

    Japan to win group +420 (1 unit)

    Columbia not to win group -110 (1 unit)

    Uruguay to win group +190 (1.5 units)

    France to win WC +2500 (1 unit)
    France to win group -130 (3 units)

    France / Switzerland to advance +110 (.5 unit)

    France to reach quarterfinals +100 (1 unit)

    Germany / Portugal to advance -120 (1 unit)

    USA to finish last +120 (1 units)

    USA under 2.5 points +110 (2 units)

    Russia to win group +240 (1.5 units)

    S Korea to come in last in group +220 (1 unit)


    From an investing point of view, I am inclined to tail it all. I suspect it will produce profit, and I would encourage others to do the same. Let this strategy be known as buying "The Vanzack Index".

    Good luck to all.
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