World Cup 2014 Thread....

Friday June 10

 

Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) – See this line and total as being just about right.  Think the most likely result is a draw here, so would also advocate the draw at about +215 or so but will have my money on Cameroon.  I think size in the air and speed in transition might just be the undoing of Mexico – and while the Cameroon drama of not wanting to get on the plane scares me – the drama and pressure of Mexico make me feel at ease.  Mexico has been in horrendous form as of the last year or so – and I just don’t see how they flip the switch.  Predicted final score Mexico 1 Cameroon 1.

 

Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) – I have been back and forth on this game for about a month now – not on who I like but on how much I like them.  As I wrote in my preview, this is a game for the lovers of tactics out there – possession vs counter at its finest.  I am sticking with my gut here and my belief that Diego Costa will make a big difference up front for Spain – and they will turn the 70% possession in to goals.  The Dutch will be playing defense – but I don’t see where they have it to withstand the pressure for 90 minutes.  For me – I land right in the middle of my wager size I had considered for this game – and probably close to my max for a first round game…  Predicted final score Spain 2 Netherlands 0

 

Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) – I am a little concerned about laying so much chalk in a first round game, but this is as nice of a spot to do it as any.  Chile will attack all game.  It is 90 minutes of hell for the opponent.  Australia has a new squad with a really bad run of form – and Chile will know that goal differential in this first game might be the difference in getting out of this group.  They wont be happy with a 1 goal win.  Mismatches all over the field, but laying the -218 to take back something on a 1 goal win….  Predicted final score Chile 3 Australia 0.

Very interesting...

And at first thought I have no idea how to play it.

I would say if you like Brazil, can get Brazil at +300 and get your money back if you lose in penalties - that sounds like a pretty damn good deal.

Van, when you say,

"Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit)"

Do you bet it a .5 unit on each side?

OK - can see this question coming...  Nothing personal as I know a lot of people are new to betting soccer....  So I will write this with the thought of cutting and pasting as the question comes again.

In soccer handicaps, you can have half goals, and you can have whole goals.  For instance, a team can be -.5 goal or -1 goal or -1.5 goals.  This is pretty easy to understand.

But because goals are at such a premium, and the difference sometimes between -.5 and -1 is so great - the handicaps are sometimes "-.5 AND -1".  This is a single bet where half of your wager goes on -.5, and half goes on -1 BOTH AT THE STATED ODDS.

So if a team is PK and +.5 -101, this means if you bet 101 total - you would have 50.50 on PK and 50.50 on +.5.

Some example scores:

Draw means you would push on the PK bet but win the +.5 bet.  So you would profit 50 on a 101 bet.

A win means you would win both bets, profiting 100 on a 101 bet.

A loss means you lose both bets, losing 101.

Great, thanks for the clarification.

One last question,

When you bet Chile to win at -215 (1 Unit) I assume you are betting 2.15 units to win 1?

Thanks for the thoughts Van -- I think the Chile/Australia game should be one where Chile controls from the opening whistle, so I would be shocked if they didn't come away with three points there. Laying over -200 is nothing I want to do on a regular basis, but that talent differential is so massive that I think there is value backing the Chileans on the ML.

JT: Out of 100 cappers using american-style pricing, 98 would answer positively to the last question.

Vanzack...THANKS for being cool and taking the time to post your insights. I'll be checking this thread on a regular basis.

I thought this article at ESPN was interesting https://www.espnfc.com/story/1727352. It basically says that the heat and humidity in some locations will have a big effect on play. Games played at locations like Manaus will be played at the hottest time of the day to catch the biggest TV audience, Europe. Might this make for  some more under plays? Maybe even 2nd half unders because you know teams playing in tropical jungle conditions are going to be gassed 2nd half.

Again thanks, looks like you will hit the 100,000 views mark, you have already flown by 10,000 and the cup hasn't even started.

Correct.

GL

Van = 

Thx for posting  your plays for the hilton contest last season

  Best of luck Van.  

The article states -- The 2014 World Cup in temperature terms will therefore be similar to the three North American World Cups – Mexico in 1970 & 1986, and the USA in 1994 – where matches were played in extreme heat and humidity, and perhaps not coincidentally where the Europeans have also failed to win.

The Europeans didn't win.  But they were 2nd place in each of those finals. Not only that, in USA, Europeans were also 3rd and 4th place (Swedes and Bulgarians).  So 3 of the 4 semi-finalists came from Europe in '94. 

I am curious which teams are likely to do better in higher heat/humidity venues.  African teams? 

Smallest as in short? The Ghana players looked 3-4 inches taller than the SK players.

Sorry guys, got into this thread late as I haven't been around much on Covers lately or betting a lot. So this is going all the way back to page 2 in this thread concerning the Ribery injury for France.
Just wanted to say that as a big France supporter I am not worried about this and in a way kind of happy about it. Do not underestimate Antoine Griezmann who will no doubt take his spot on the field. Ribery has been inconsistent on the international level and I'm happy to have Griezmann in his place to try and show off his great talent!

Other than that, great thread! Thanks for posting all the analysis Vanzack and company! 

Van,

Those wagers you have, are they all regulation only? My book is only offering regulation wagers at this point

Truly amazing. Thanks

all the group stage games are regulation only i guess, no OT in group stage. generally its 90 min in soccer betting except for who will advance bet.

yea you are probably right..totally forgot about that. Brain freeze

Van:

Vanzack top goal scorer?

Hey van

Thanks for posting
Im new to soccer and been running bad. No disrespect but on your pre tournament betting, how did u do in 2010 worldcup? Im just deciding to see if I should follow u on all or it. Just curious since ive been running so bad lately