Posted:
#26
GOOD LUCK 
World Cup 2010 Solid Pick(s)
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by 3rdpig:
I would hate to write of Spain, they are the defending European champions, and the did participate in the South African Confed Cup last year with Brazil, Italy and USA.
I would hate to write of Spain, they are the defending European champions, and the did participate in the South African Confed Cup last year with Brazil, Italy and USA.
3rd pig yes I am writing off Spain to win the tournament but I will be on their side in the group stages. You are right when you say they are European champions and they is no more talented side in the tournament. The big problem Spain have is defence. When Carlos Puyol is your best defender you know you have problems.
In 2008 their best player IMO was Marcos Senna. He would sit in front of the back 4 and break down so many opposition attacks. His role was simple but he was so effective. Now it seems something is cleary wrong with him this season as he wasn't even chosen for Spain's 23 man squad.
I expect Spain to do what they always do. Look a million dollars in the group stages and last 16 and then lose a game they should never lose in either the last 8 or last 4. I just can't see how Spain can win a world cup with that defence.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
"Game 3: I am playing Brazil to win by 2 goals EXACTLY @ + 300..Really not sure what to for for here."
Hey Mack, if that's the play, wouldn't it make more sense to play the exact scores instead? I don't have the juice in front of me, but I'd have to imagine that Brazil 2, DPRK 0 and Brazil 3, DPRK 1 would probably be higher than +300?
"Game 3: I am playing Brazil to win by 2 goals EXACTLY @ + 300..Really not sure what to for for here."
Hey Mack, if that's the play, wouldn't it make more sense to play the exact scores instead? I don't have the juice in front of me, but I'd have to imagine that Brazil 2, DPRK 0 and Brazil 3, DPRK 1 would probably be higher than +300?
Good point Kap. Brazil v North Korea a tough game to call. Brazil could go won 6-1 EASY or of course could have problems breaking down a blanket defence first game. I thought of playing Brazil -2 @ evens. I just don't have a strong feeling either way Kap so deceided to take a chance on Brazil to win by 2 goals. Brazil to win 2-0 is +450 and 3-1 is + 1200.
Maybe the 2-0 should have been the best way to go, but to win by 2 goals covers both scorelines above for +300. In a game I don't know which way to go I will take a small chance on that. I also just put 10 bucks on Brazil to win 6-1 @ +5000. You never know :-)!
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:
ok Day 5..I have to be honest and don't have the same feeling for tomorrow's games as I did for today's which I murdered..So I will be playing low stakes tomorrow. There are better days ahead from a gambling prespective and I don't want to undo all the good work thus far betting alot on games I don't have a real strong feeling for..
Let's start with Slovakia v New Zealand. Quite frankly a cappers nightmare...The trend so far with most matches is too play the under, especially with the poor teams. The under 2.5 goals is evens here. I found this strange and wouldn't think you would get such a good price for it...For me this is a NO PLAY. In these games where I honestly don't have a clue I tend to fade myself so will play the over 2.5 goals @ evens. Low stakes only an interest (tail someone else this game!)
On to game 2 which is Ivory Coast v Portugal. I really see a tight game here. Both teams know if they lose this game, essentially their world is over. My first reaction to this game is that it looks a draw written all over it and that's what I am going to play. I am also going to take a chance on Cristano Ronaldo to score anytime. Again guys sorry I can't be more confident I am just not feeling it.
Game 3: I am playing Brazil to win by 2 goals EXACTLY @ + 300..Really not sure what to for for here.
So tomorrow's plays are:
1) New Zealand v Slovakia Over 2.5 goals @ evens
2) Portugal v Ivory Coast to draw @ + 250 and C Ronaldo to score anytime @ +150
3) Brazil to win by exactly 2 goals @ +300
Sorry, I have nothing more concrete guys. Just don't like tomorrow's games..Gl with what ever you go with..
Finally found a bet I like today!
Brazil -2 on the Asian Handicap @ -160. Have also bet Brazil to win exactly by 2 goals as stated above. All this means that if Brazil wins by more then 2, I win my main bet (the Asian Handicap). If they win exactly by 2, then I get my main bet stake back (The Asian Handicap) and win the exact Brazil wins by 2 bet...
Basically if Brazil win by 1, then I lose all bets on this game...
So very similiar what I did with Italy last night. Say you have 1200 bucks..
1000 on Brazil -2 Asian Handicap @ -160
200 on Brazil to win by exactly 2 goals @+300.
My gamble today is that Brazil wins by 2 goals or more. If this happens yippee. If they win by 1 or its a draw then it's a loss..
If feel the combined bets above are a very solid play. You can't guarentee anything guys as you know but I feel quite good about this play..
Giving the other 2 small stakes as I already suggested. Brazil will carry my hopes today
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by taurus:
Good Luck , Mack.
I'm impressed so far, and will be a regular visitor to your thread. Might even ask you some stupid questions. Like - I played Italy PK at 5Dimes at -188 today. It was a push with the draw. I think this was the essentially the same bet you made, correct? ( I did not bet on the final score)
BTW, I agree with your starting your own thread. Once again, good Luck.
Taurus yep more or less the same bet.
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by frankierizzo:
Big Mack,
NK vs. Brazil
What is your opinion of NK to win @ +2000 moneyline ??
Or draw @ +750 moneyline ????
I hear they play solid defense. And they are very secretive....
Big Mack,
NK vs. Brazil
What is your opinion of NK to win @ +2000 moneyline ??
Or draw @ +750 moneyline ????
I hear they play solid defense. And they are very secretive....
I don't see it myself mate but you never know. There hasn't been a real shock in the world cup since Senegal beat France but N Korea would be a FAR even bigger one. Normally, I would say North Korea don't have a snow balls chance in hell,l but there is something unknown about them. Brazil could take them too lightly, focusing on other games. I can't see how you can go wrong putting 10 or 20 bucks on both the draw and win. I don't think Brazil romps this so you should get a bit of value for the play...
I have already committed on Brazil but I certainly would not talk you out of taking a chance. This world cup hasn't taken off yet and tonight who knows we may see the biggest shock in world cup history. I hope not! GL 
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:
Are you parlaying every game you like today with Andre Ward?
I'm not Danno...I am not very confident on the first two matches. All the plays there will be for small stakes. I think I have figured a good way to make money on the Brazil match as written above.
The Ward/Alexander parlay is a rare parlay for me. I have Ward Parlayed with some other stuff (sports you guys would never have heard of!) but not much. As you know I have quite a bit invested in the Ward and Alexander parlay. The value is gone now though. I see Ward as -800 in some places and -700 for Alexander. I am hoping the Ward line goes back down to maybe -600 before fight time as I'm sure alot of boxing fans will see some value in Allan Greene and his power in both hands (I don't).. I can't see the Alexander price going back down,. if anything it will keep rising. Kotelnick doesn't have the power to hurt Devon and Devon is the superior boxer.
In general I don't parlay boxing and soccer bets...World cup soccer is one of the toughest things to Cap. As you will see from the 2nd rounds of matches and onwards..I have put my money where my mouth is, but if Brazil only won by a single goal I would not be overly stunned. Let's hope the samba boys can light it up!
I am heading to a Brazilian party tonight! Hot chicks and anything over a 1-0 scoreline for Brazil and those Caipirinha's will sure taste nice!
Posted:
#44
This is why you bet low stakes on Games with teams like Slovakia and New Zealand. The books cheered that last goal I tell you! That would have cost them millions, then come that equalizer.
I lost my over bet but I only had little on it and I hope people listened to my advice and bet low here. Brazil on the Asian Handicap -160) and to win by exactly 2 (+300) as specificed above. That's where my action is today and I have quite a bit on it.
Anything from Ivory Coast v Portugal is a bonus (another small stake on bith my posted bets) but my day will be decided by the Samba boys from Brazil hopefully winning by 2 or more..!
Posted:
#47
So far today's plays have gone:
1) New Zealand v Slovakia Over 2.5 goals @ evens LOSE (€30 bucks loss)
2) Portugal v Ivory Coast to draw @ + 250 WIN (€50 * +250 = €125 win) and C Ronaldo to score anytime @ +150 LOSE (€50 loss)
The draw came in @ a tasty +250 so that puts me up overall on the day..Not much though..
Ok tonight is the big bet. I have Brazil (-2) on the Asian Handicap -162. I have also Brazil to win by exactly two goals.
So I have €1300 to win €800 IF Brazil win by more then 2.
I have €200 to win €600 if Brazil win by exactly 2 goals. The Asian handicap bet I get my money back. So lets go through the various scenario's...
1) North Korea win or Game Draw I Lose €1500
2) Brazil win by 1, I lose €1500
3) Brazil win by 2, I win €600
4) Brazil win by more then 2, I win €800 - €200 = €600 again!
Brazil 3-0 after 20 minutes would be nice ...
Good Luck guys with all your plays...
Posted:
#49
Guys I am out tonight so going to post tomorrow's plays now..
First game is another game I HATE! Chile v Honduras. I don't even know where the F%^& Honduras is! Again a low play here for me and probably a NO PLAY. Just don't like the games like this..Maybe the under 2.5 which is hitting all tournament or both teams NOT to score in the game at the same price -150. Honestly it's Blahhhhh for me this game..Final decision NO PLAY..
Game 2: I like Spain but -400! Man there are NOT good odds. Going to mix and match here again like I have been doing so far to look for some value. Basically, I like Spain in the group stages. Always have and I think they have a better team then Switzerland. There is always the fear of Switzerland putting 11 guys behind the ball. They are strong enough to frustrate Spain for 90 minutes, so I will be cautious enough here, especially with my Brazil bet pending..
Going to Play Spain (-1) for -150 on the Asian Handicap for 600 and Spain to win by EXACTLY 1 @ +230 for 150. It will work out as 600 to win 400 if Spain wins by more then 1. If they win by exactly 1, I win 345...Anything less then a Spain win then I Lose..
Game 3: I have always hated Uruguay pre tourney and I honestly believe South Africa has a good chance to qualify. Uruguay are favourites, but I honestly don't see anything special about them.
I am playing South Africa 0.0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap for -125. Basically I am playing on the fact, I don't think Uruguay is going to win this game.
I also can't escape the under in the this game for -200..
Good Luck dudes. I am heading out to party with some Brazilians 
Posted:
#50
To get everyone in the mood for Brazil game later!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qssHLXa_0Jk&feature=related
Adriana Lima @3:52! Just unreal beautiful
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