USA vs. BELGIUM WORLD CUP PLAY

TOURNAMENT:  126-98-9 (BIG PLAY: 45-30-7)

Starting a new thread, the other one was not going so well both with plays and banter.  Not going to address the other thread any more than that.

This game between the USA & Belgium is going to be very hotly contested.  Not only because of President Trump meddling and aiding to have Folarian Balogun's red card overturned, but because it's a knockout game between the only host country left, and a team that feels it has been robbed.

On the surface, many of us will feel the USA should, and will, win this game.  It's hard to be in this country and not to feel a bit of biased given our opponent hasn't been playing all that great and, conversely, the USA have been.  I'm on that same bandwagon but when it comes to wagering, it changes things a bit.

Belgium has been the USA kryptonite for years.  We have lost each of the six H2Hs in all competitions while conceding 15 times across that run of reversals, that's not very good.  The USA’s last nine internationals have averaged 4.1 total goals per game and I think that continues here, in a game where the stakes are much higher, but could be more reminiscent of the game the USA played against Turkey. 

But the Turkey game was the last in the group we had already won and we had quite a few subs on the field for most of the affair.  Things will be different with today's lineup and seeing Balogun in it will surely provide a lift.  I have said for some time that his Belgian team is unimpressive and their coach is much the same.  This is an area I do think the USA has in the matchup, coaching.

OVER 2.5 (USA/BELGIUM) -150...BIG PLAY!!!:  This is for REGULATION TIME and doesn't include extra time.  I can see this going to extra time but that will not be because the USA have played to a 0-0 draw.  At least not in my opinion as Belgium have also averaged slightly over 3 goals a game at this tournament. 

YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE USA/BELGIUM (-190):.  I'm just going to post them if you have it in you to drop the juice, then do it b/c I find it extremely hard to see this game with either team sporting a clean sheet.

USA TT OVER 1.5 FG (-125)...BIG PLAY!!!:  Back to the well on this one.  This is including extra time so bet it accordingly.  I obviously dont' see a 1-1 draw but given that the difference in the vig is between -101 and -125 I'll pay a bit more for the insurance.

I have another one that I am going to post just want to get this published before I'm limited with how much I can post in one sitting.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

FWIW, I  like the picks.

I am going with USA ???? to advance parlay with Balogun's to anytime score. And just a straight USA ???? to advance 

I also love this little stat about Belgium: Belgium have managed a mere 2.6% shot conversion rate before half-time at the tournament so far (1/39).

To me, that again means the coach doesn't have them ready to roll coming out of the tunnel.  They will most likely be much more motivated due to them feeling as though they were robbed, but 2.6% shot conversion is awful.

The USA on the other hand, have come out strong in every game they have played thus far, winning the FH in 3 of the 4 games at this World Cup, with the one they didn't win being the game against Turkey where they had a rested unit.

USA FH (0) -135...BIG PLAY!!!:  Considering what I just wrote about the USA coming out strong, I don't see how that doesnt' happen again.  I'm tempted to take them at +200 as well, and might do so in a parlay of sorts, but the USA is so incredibly good playing in Seattle and in the FH of this Cup that I really find value in this.  I'm not sure if all the books offer this HT play but if they do, jump on it.  

CHRISTIAN PULISIC ANYTIME GOALSCORER (+170)...INCLUDING EXTRA TIME:  At some point, the USA will be awarded a penalty.  The referee from Jordan has already given one in the tournament.  If that happens, Pulisic will take it and score.  IF that doesnt' happen, and the USA score, he has as good a chance as any to get on the scoresheet.

I will wait to see how Belgium lines up in the FH but this should be all the plays.  Go check on the lines to make sure they are correct and up to your liking.  If you don't like the play, or see it loses, just keep your thoughts to yourself and move on.  I'm clearly not overly confident in the USA getting it done and moving on, probably b/c the other host nations also faced top teams and struggled.  But the USA I think are playing a team that is old, slow, and past their prime.  But the Belgians are experienced and have been here before. 75% certain the USA moves on to play Spain, but the other 25% keeps me from officially playing it...at least for now.

Yes, I like all these plays and I'm back to more familiar territory with the USA (though it didn't really help with France).  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..

@TJ-Sports

Funny thing is I too think Balogun scores but I feel strongly that Pulisic has to play to the level he can if we are to get through.

But it just seems, every time in sports or life, when something like this happens, the person who was maligned (in this case Balogun) feels less relieved and more motivated.  Good luck with your plays 

@LAGameofInches

 Thanks.  I can see balogun getting a shot. Like last night,  I thought that Brazil had a penalty kick and changed to that guy who missed the PK. 

Good thing we need both to score 

Hate Belgium but hope they stick it up baloguns ass tonight and send them home. Losers…..whole tournament is a sham after overturning that. 

Good luck tonite LA. 

TRUST THE PROCESS!!

LET'S GO!!!

 thats a bad night if Belgium puts BTA.  Good luck 

It’s gonna be extremely close I obviously hope the USA wins but it’s gonna be a tough one, but I will go with my heart. USA and overs. It’s just money we will make more tomorrow. Stock market is on fire making money hand over  fist. 

Agreed I’m all in on the over 2.5 but mine is minus 130. I think Belgium will at least get 2. They smoked the USA 5-2 in march

Luckily I checked on FanDuel and saw BTTS at -170 but...I'm hoping it's not reverse line action that means something.  I just can't (as much as I'd like to) see us putting up another clean sheet.  If that happens Matt Freese will be playing in Europe next year 

Not sure which Belgium team will show up. I think they are the better team and they should win. But I my gut feeling has the US winning for some reason. 1-1 and it ends in ET? If the US manage to win, Spain should cook them next game. 

In a friendly. Lord. 

I literally never post, but I've really enjoyed following along and reading your analysis.  That other thread was getting crazy.  Just wanted to show my appreciation.

FWIW...  I parlayed (Over 1.5 goals) and (Belgium over 3.5 shots on goal) @ -145.  GL to us both on that over.

@vaas187

Belgium should have lost to Iran with the sham that VAR has been and the terrible offsides set piece Iran scored on

@Bill_Money

 To compare a friendly which is a meaningless game to the last 16

in the world cup is ridiculous. 

@LAGameofInches

 GL dude, I'm with you on everything you said. They can get this done, and should.. They WILL. You need to believe they can.  

@vaas187

 Dude if you know anything about soccer you know that was NOT a red card to Balogun! It was not even given as a yellow card in real time! Yellow Card yes No chance in Hell it was a Red card! So that was the correct decision to overturn the Red card. You want to beat the US with are best team out on the Pitch if Belgium win good for them but to try and get our best player suspended for the wrong decision is just plain BS! Go read the rules before making stupid comments!

@vaas187

@vaas187

 I agree. When coaches or players complain in professional sports you get fined or suspended for making such comments about the league, but yet when the president makes them they re-write the rules ? Other countries have a right to be upset about an amendment to the rules that wouldn't have applied to them had their best player gotten suspended. This is not political, it is simply the truth. 

Wow I can't believe I made it home before kick off.  

After my last call I looked at my watch and then realized it was 4:10 and the game was at 5pm NOT 6pm!  Plus I had to get to the dispensary.  And I had to stop at the bank.  And the dispensary is 6 stops up the freeway.

Well then my lady walks in, early in fact, so I was happy to see her.  She then said Oh let me save you a trip to the bank I have $200.  Awesome!  

I get in my car and try to dart up there but there was no resistance, no traffic, and the one light I was afraid of was green when I was pulling off the freeway.  Also the dispensary had the order ready and I somehow scored a $100 discount.

An omen?  Let's hope...but either way I'm high as a kite about to watch the USA make history