expected Goals (xG) : analyse and predictions for Euro2020

I heard already few time before about xG but I just start to interest much more with the euro2020

You can use infogol.net for the euro https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/european-championship-finals-group-stage-2021/231

or FootballxG.com for world games data and forecast

I have checked group stage for euro2020 about expected goals and analyse deeply this

I am beginning with that so it is a test but I already find one idea to find some potential of teams.

We will see how it is work...

It stays tonight games for the last qualification places so I will update these datas after games of groupeE+F will be finished..

Here is  teams that I believe they have the potential to make upset and win outrights the Euro2020.

1) Netherlands : +2.43 xG above the average level  ( odds @12.58 / +1158)

2) Spain: +2.4 xG above the average level  ( odds @ 10.54 / +954)

3) Denmark : +2.33 xG above the average level ( odds@ 22.33 / +2133)

4) Portugal : +1.43 xG above the average level ( odds @ 11.25 / +1025)

Others team's trends (For info):

Italy: +0.43 xG

Wales : +0.33xG

Switzerland : -0.17 xG

Belgium +0.2 xG

Finland: -1.73 xG

Austria: -0.83 xG

Ukraine: -0.97xG

England: -0.13 xG

Croatia: -0.8 xG

Czech Republic: -0.2xG

Sweden: -0.13xG

Slovakia:-2.07xG

Poland: -0.3xG

France: -0.43 xG

Germany : +0.33xG

Hungary: -1.23 xG

Note: Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Ukraine are the worst on this ( and bookies agree with that on their standing outrights winner)

BL

Been noticing a trend where a lot of games in this tournament where the team with the higher xG has been dropping points fairly consistently. Not sure why but to me, I read that as the teams who park the bus and pay conservatively have been rewarded for their strategy. Going to keep watching the xG results for the knockout round. BoL 

I love the IDEA of XG, but I have yet to find a practical implementation of it in my handicapping.

A couple of reasons....

1.  XG itself - the measurement that feeds the stat - is an inexact science.  It is largely determined from location on the pitch where the attempt at goal was made, but only secondarily takes in to effect all of the other determining factors like positioning of defense, situation, is this a primary of secondary chance at goal etc.

2.  It is skewed by PKs and free kicks

3.  The two above are on the collection of the stat itself (which is flawed and inexact), but this is based on the application of the stat.  If a side has a high XG, but is scoring below that XG value - is that a sign that a team should be sided with in an individual match?  In other words, Spain is second in the tournament in XG (2.4 above average), but have only scored 1 goal.  What does that mean practically to me?  It could mean that Spain just hasn't hit their chances but are "due" to make more goals because they consistently get chances, OR it can mean that Spain is just horrible at converting chances and shouldn't be bet.

That being said....  I look at XG.  It is part of my process and important to see between the lines.  But I am not totally convinced that a flawed statistic that is more art than science can be applied accurately to be a predictor of future events.  I think it is one ingredient in a complicated soup - but just my opinion.

Thoughts?

It is the problem with stats numbers usually , we can read it on differents way...

where do you find the 2.4 xG above the average for spain? because it is the same result of my calculs so if the work is already done in other website I would like to have it if possible.

I have seen videos on youtubes that xG are balanced on long term so we can expect + for the retarding xG I guess even it is not exact science( look scotland I had for them +1.03 xG above the average AND they finished last...  but here it is not long term view on 1-2-3games...

What we could say also about teams who are qualified for next round and have a negative xG( below the average level) ...

That could mean these teams are talented more than the average and/or they had "more luck" for the moment

Where is the Truth...? that is good question may be without reply :)

For me xGD( differential xG) is a "joke", it is more complex that that on my mind to forecast next.

Now with the xG..  Who is surprised of the score of Spain against Slov? 

For European Big , this website is very good for xG, there is historical last years xG results

https://understat.com/

Here is the update of xG after the last  group games played

1) Spain: +3.67 xG above the average level ( odds @ 8.71 / +771)

2) Netherlands : +2.43 xG above the average level ( odds @9.92 / +892)

3) Denmark : +2.33 xG above the average level ( odds@ 19.34 / +1834)

4) Portugal : +1.97 xG above the average level ( odds @ 11.67 / +1067)

Others team's trends (For info):

Italy: +0.43 xG

Wales : +0.33xG

Switzerland : -0.17 xG

Belgium +0.2 xG

Austria: -0.83 xG

Ukraine: -0.97xG

England: -0.13 xG

Croatia: -0.8 xG

Czech Republic: -0.2xG

Sweden: -0.13xG

France: -0.27 xG

Germany : +0.33xG

I don't know if it makes sens but I will try to make to see xG bests potential defenses now

Here is the xG to see the potential Defensive of teams

1) Italy : -3.17 xG below the average level of Defense

2) England: -1.83 xG below the average level of Defense

3) Netherlands : -1.7 xG below the average level of Defense

4) Germany : -1.47 xG below the average level of Defense

5) Austria : -1.1 xG  below the average level of Defense

6) Spain: -1.07 xG below the average level of Defense

7) Belgium: -1 xG  below the average level of Defense

8) Switzerland : -0.7 xG below the average level of Defense

9) France: -0.6 xG  below the average level of Defense

10) Denmark : -0.47 xG below the average level of Defense

11) Ukraine : -0.43 xG below the average level of Defense

12) Sweden: +0.37 xG above the average level of Defense

13) Portugal: +0.5 xG above the average level of Defense

14) Rep Czech:  +0.63 xG above the average level of Defense

15) Croatia: +0.7 xG above the average level of Defense

16) Wales : +1.33 xG above the average level of Defense

Italy seems to have the best potential defense and Wales are the worst on this sector

Regarding OFFENSE+DEFENSE xG may be I should consider ITALY also to win Outrights odds @7 / +600)

Netherlands and Spain seems teams to have the most potential balanced off+def

Wait and see...

 ITALY also to win Outrights odds @7 / +600)

For the final ITALY 2.69 xG vs 0.79 xG  England, Italy deserve to win the final Forza ITalia

https://www.infogol.net/en/matches/results/yesterday

Note: I think that without penalties shoot against italy, spain is the best on xG but it is knock out tornament so