I retire. Meet the new KING.
How did you manage this? Im 9-2?!?!?!?
Impressive!
Results:
9-2-1 WLP
+12.02 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 units
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 units
England not to win the group at -210. 2 units
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 units
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 units
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units
Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units.
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.
Upcoming:
13. Italy / Croatia: Italy will feel good about themselves having the beast of the group under their belt – but knowing that the game against Croatia is a must win game. Italy played basically 3 in the back, with the outside backs moving up almost in to winger roles when play pushed forward. They were able to do this because of Spains lack of width (read below in Spain preview) – and because of their confidence in DeRossi to play “sweeper” and hold the back together. This is not the Italian way, but proved very effective against compact Spain.
I question whether they will continue with this formation – but it seems from what I read that they will. Pirlo played quarterback to perfection – feeding the ball up through space to Cassano and Balotteli – and eventually sprung DiNatale for the Italian goal. For all of Balotellis ups and downs – the part of him I cant put up with is his lack of movement when Italy has the ball and he doesn’t. He doesn’t seem to want to move in to space, or take a few steps to make a passing lane open for a teammate. Some of his actions bordered on the laughable today – from the ridiculous slow motion one on one to the sublime skill he showed to keep a ball in bounds – you just don’t know what you will get. But the substitution sparked the Italians, and DiNatale might just be in there to stay.
The giveaways from Italy give me pause. Time after time – they cheaply gave the ball to Spain – and that will eventually cost them unless they shore that up. Chalk it up to a first game – against the talent of Spain – and I get it, but if they think they can do that for long – they will be out of this tournament sooner rather than later.
Croatia played well against Ireland – but I feel like they got the most out of it and Ireland got the worst of it. Modric was often pushed back in to a very defensive position – but when he got the ball he started the Croatia moves by almost always choosing the correct outlet to go to. He wasn’t directly involved in the offense very much – but he always set up the play at the start. Srna was the man of the match for me – totally neutralizing any Irish threat down the flank.
I expect to see an open game – and there should be goals. I see Italy with the possession advantage, the talent advantage, and I think this is where Croatia will sit back and try to counter – and it wont work against a defense like Italy. Im on Italy Pk and -.5 -101 for 4 units. Most likely result Italy 3-1. I also like the over here – but will stick with just the Italy wager.
14. Spain / Ireland: Spain has spent the last 4 years playing a style that has been very successful for not only winning trophies – but for the skills the Spanish players possess. But I think their tactics have been figured out – and a blueprint has been created for containing them.
Spain and Barcelona are best when they use width and depth mixed in to the passing game. If you look at the Italy game – you see no width and no depth – basically a blob about 20 yards by 20 yards moving up the field with 5 or 6 Spanish players trying to move the blob up the field and pass the ball in the net. There is virtually no wing play to speak of, and there is virtually no separation between the midfield and the strikers (if there was actually a striker). This worked several years ago – but Italy (and Chelsea) showed that even when faced with the best players in the world, with the most potent passing attack in the world – a one dimentional offense that goes up the middle every time can be contained. Pack it in, pack it back, and defend in numbers.
Once down a goal to Italy – Spain quickly countered – but it was the same type of move they tried all game – it just happened to spring through and work. Right afterwards – they brought in Navas for Silva – which was obviously a move to bring width. Right away – you could see the moves up the right flank with Navas – but the playmaker Silva was gone – and Navas had no target for anything in the middle because of the lack of striker. Hence – enter Torres – which was really the game changer for me.
Once Torres was in – there was depth. And now the good chances came – which unfortunately for Torres – seemed to fall in the lap of a striker who just cant finish for some reason. But they had suddenly had the depth and the width they needed. It didn’t hurt that Italy kept giving the ball away – time after time after time – in fact on Torres best chance that he tried to chip and went over the bar – it was a free kick for Italy that was inexplicably given directly to a counterattacking Spanish side – and a pass or two later (using the space created by Torres depth) Torres was in on Buffon only to miss.
I will say it as simply as I can – Spain needs space between the midfield and the forwards (if they play forwards at all) – and they need space to stretch the defense to cover wings. Without it – they are predictable – and can still overcome less talented sides – but will struggle against the best. The days of passing the ball in to the net might be over.
I felt Ireland were a bit unlucky in their loss to Croatia. All 3 Croatian goals came from ugly defensive lapses – and while they did nothing to deserve a result – on a better day might have come away with a point. Ireland are one dimentional – they aren’t good enough to be anything else. They don’t have a playmaker – so they rely on two defensive minded banks to feed a lone striker or use set plays to get a quick strike. In fact, their lone goal came on a free kick header which was poorly played by the Croatian defense.
But their own defense let them down. Ireland are never going to come back from being down a couple of goals, and very simply the defensive lapses were their undoing. But I said before the game that these are not top notch players – they are average at best. Stephen Ward – who assisted Croatia’s second goal with his swipe backpass – plays for Wolves, Dunne for Aston Villa, St Ledger for Leicester City, Keane for LA Galaxy and so on. You should get the picture. This is a side that only has one option – to defend and counter – and Im not sold that they are even good enough to pull that off.
So the big question for me is how the Del Bosque decides to set up the formation to play Ireland. If he comes out with the 6 midfielders again, I can see Ireland packing back Chelsea style and clogging up the middle. I think this plays right in to Irelands hands. I would much rather see him start Torres and Navas and a left wing minded player – and stretch them out.
This is the big uglies vs the artists. I just cannot come up with a way that Ireland is able to stay with Spain for 90 minutes – especially given the fact that they really need a win and not a draw. Im willing to give the goal and a half here, because if the first one comes early enough in the game – Ireland will be forced out of their shape and then the avalanche might start. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units. Most likely result Spain 3-0.
I expect to see an open game – and there should be goals. I see Italy with the possession advantage, the talent advantage, and I think this is where Croatia will sit back and try to counter – and it wont work against a defense like Italy. Im on Italy Pk and -.5 -101 for 4 units. Most likely result Italy 3-1. I also like the over here – but will stick with just the Italy wager.
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