Euro 2012....

Short writeups.  I need a day off.  I wish we had a break, my hanmstring is pulled....

15.  Ukraine / France - I keep hearing how France played vs England - the slow pace - the inability to create etc. But clearly the pace of that game was dictated by England - not France.

That is not how France wants to play.  And that is not how the Ukraine plays either.  This theme of this game will be space.  There will be space to operate where England allowed very little.  Ukraine gives up the space in a trade off with their counter abilities - and they dont mind just trying to outscore you.  Gusev goes up just about as much as anyone in football - and leaves space behind him willingly.

I do think France has the advantage here - and will win - but in a choice between the side and the total I decided to keep it all on the total.  I was very surprised to see this at 2, was expecting to see 2.5 juiced to the over.  But I was tempted to put money on France as well.  So for me it is Ukr / Fra over 2 -120 for 3 units.  Most likely result France 2-1.

16.  Sweden / England:  England has me nervous.  I am still a big seller on their talent - but I do believe they are playing a system - the only system - that they can possibly have success with - and they seem to be playing it well.  France had no ideas in the second half - and resorted to just shooting from range.  France simply could not break down the 2 banks of 4 for England - which by the way have been the most organized of any team in the tournament.  Every time France came down - you could freeze your dvr and count "1, 2, 3, 4" times 2 sitting back, compact, and no space between.  That is hard to break down.

But it is also hard to score out of that formation - unless you are OK with getting 3 shots hoping to score on 1 of them.  The balls came out of the back up to Young or Wellbeck who were often left facing 5 defenders by themselves.  Not going to work too often.

Sweden looked dangerous to the extremes against Ukraine - dangerous in the form of Ibrahimovic - and dangerous also in the back as they gave up way too much space and too many chances for the Ukraine.  This is not the Swedish way.

So for me - if England come out - play the same style - play for a draw and hope Rooney against Ukraine is their ticket to the next round - they will be hard to score on.  But being able to take a half goal in this one with Swe - I fell pretty good about that.  I only hope that when England get their limited chances - Sweden limits the quality of those chances - which definitely scares me. 

Im going with Swe +.5 -130 for 1 unit.  Most likely result 1-1.

*** I forgot to mention M'Villa - who has a very good chance of playing for France against Ukraine.  A definite impact player.

I dont think it is insane.

I will say this.  Mark the time of the first goal.  If Spain scores in the first 60 minutes, the chances of Spain winning by 2+ goals is very good.

I know that sounds obvious - and like a dumb comment - but I mean it to say that in this game - more than most - an early goal will determine the final.

GL

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Gotta love tournament play.  

Russia are huge favorites to win their Group as of now but they still could, in theory, not even qualify (if they lose to Greece & the Czech's beat Poland)

Netherlands have lost two straight and could easily qualify with a convincing win and some help from the Germans.

Good luck tomorrow van, I'll be rooting for Italy with you but against you in the late game.  I just don't think Spain's tic-tac passing will not be effective enough against the 11 man defense of Ireland; there just won't be enough room.  They don't have anyone that has the grit (i.e. Mario Gomez) to create a goal from a cross, set piece, etc.  With that being said, you're right about the timing of the first goal; if it's early I will hate the side I'm on.  If it's not 1-0 until the 80th then I'll like my chances...

Agree totally.

I will be a very interested observer when the lineups are announced.  If you read my rant writeup earlier in the thread about Spain - I think it is vital that they stretch the play out - and as you say limit the tic tac passing.  They need depth and width. 

So I hope to see Navas and Torres in there.  I hope not to see 6 midfielders.

Golf?  Whats golf?  I only know golf when soccer isnt on....

I dont really know about the trend of the totals - I do bet them.  Have Fra / Ukr over coming up.

Have noticed the upwards spike in goals.

Wow.  Big run on the Fra / Ukr over.

Up to -135 in the last hour.

I think I've enjoyed reading this thread more than I have watching the games.   I think you know more about Spain than Del Bosque does.  

Italy line dropping, Van. Just like the Russia play, where the weather conditions affected the line. Surely didnt affect the outcome though.

I may wait to lay it all on the PK instead of the pk, -1/2. Pinny showing PK -134 now. What do u think?

PS: Great job so far man. Your insight is much appreciated.

I hope he is reading and we see a striker and wingers today!

Thanks for the compliments - I re-read the spain rant I had,  and thought I sounded like a nut.

You can make your own PK line too....

Have noticed the line move.  They have moved against me more than for me unfortunately....

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

So freakin true. I think this year will have the lowest amount of wagering on a golf major in a long time,,,even with tiger being back in the conversation. 

Vive lé football 

Honeslty didnt realize there was a major this weekend until ESPN said yesterday that the soccer coverage was moving to ESPN2.

Thanks for the time that you've put into the writeups in this thread, vanzack---it's helped me out a great deal.

My book currently has Ukraine/France over 2 (-130)....but they also have alternate lines of Over 2, 2.5 (+106) & Over 1.5, 2 (-170).  I'm tempted to put some percent of my wager on the Over 1.5, 2 (-170) in order to win half of my wager if the game ends exactly on 2 goals.  My question is, what is the value of half of a goal in this situation---is it worth paying an extra 40 cents of juice for the Over 1.5, 2 compared to the Over 2?   

Italy and Croatia....  Both lineups unchanged from last games....

Balotelli in....

Kinda like asking "how much is a half point worth in the NFL?"

Its complicated.

First off - your lines are not unfair.  But just like the NFL, a half point on a total is worth more on a game where the total is 30 than the total at 55.  And then, it is worth more if it is on a key number.

In soccer - 2 is definitely a key number.

So it really comes down to your tolerance.  Remember - if you bet it at -170 at 1.5 and 2, and it goes to 3 - you have done yourself a disservice.  Bettors rarely look at it this way - but if you risked 170 to win 100, and it goes to 3 - you COULD HAVE made MORE profit for the same risk.  So while it is impossible to maximize your profit all the time - I think this game has a good chance of going to 3 - so for me I would rather lay 2.5 and get odds than lay 1.5 and give odds.

But once again - your lines are not unfair - it just comes down to tolerance.  If it lands right on 2 - you will be a happy man - but remember - 2 is the ONLY number that it could land on that would make your wager worth doing.  At 1, you lose more.  At 3, you win less.....

Im getting pretty pissed that I keep missing these line moves on my big wagers.

20 cents.  Jeesh.  Go Italy.

Im going with Swe +.5 -130 for 1 unit.  Most likely result 1-1.

^^^ Loving this bet will most likely be on it big on Friday

GL

Count the Italian unforced giveaways.

I have 2 in the first 4 minutes.

This has to stop.