Posted:
#1576
book is letting me parlay a italy or spain in 90 and to lift the cup? is that a mistake or legitimate ?
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Euro 2012....
Posted:
#1578
Fuck it I'll watch some Soccer (Futbol
)........
I'm rollin with ya Van and wish you tons of luck. My biggest win was a futures bet on Green Bay to win the SB a couple yrs back. That was the toughest game to watch of my life and they pulled it out for me. I hope you get to feel that rush at the end of the game. 
100/240
0
Posted:
#1579
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
Dude, it seems like you're asking about every bet under the sun, like a sad little puppy begging for a play.
I'd say it's a good bet he has no interest adding any bets whatsoever, especially one like a first half draw or other random shit you keep asking about. Sounds like you've been following the thread, and if so you would know that.
But hey keep trying I guess.
Dude, it seems like you're asking about every bet under the sun, like a sad little puppy begging for a play.
I'd say it's a good bet he has no interest adding any bets whatsoever, especially one like a first half draw or other random shit you keep asking about. Sounds like you've been following the thread, and if so you would know that.
But hey keep trying I guess.
OK.
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Posted:
#1580
Good luck on your monster play Van! And huge thanks for kindly sharing your knowledge with us!
One quick question before the big game. If I'm not mistaken when you are wagering if you are playing fav you place x units and when playing dog you also place x amount of units. If I got that right, don't you that way over-betting dogs (or under-betting favs)? Shouldn't one play to win x amount of units regardless what the odds are?
One quick question before the big game. If I'm not mistaken when you are wagering if you are playing fav you place x units and when playing dog you also place x amount of units. If I got that right, don't you that way over-betting dogs (or under-betting favs)? Shouldn't one play to win x amount of units regardless what the odds are?
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Posted:
#1582
Well - not that much fun in the end, and not profitable either. My downfall was the futures - too much lumped in to the anti-Enland basket. Will learn from it for next time.
That was not a typical 4-0 scoreling - it really could have been totally different with a few breaks - but it goes this way sometimes.
Its been a lot of fun. Now - about 6 weeks with nothing to do!
GL all - until next time...
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#1587
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:
If you got Italy at 14/1 ...
If you got Italy at 14/1 ...
Spain to win the Euro is currently -175 (or 63.6%) at Pinny.
You've risked 1 to win 14 with a current prob. of 26.4% to win the wager. Therefore, current EV of the wager is:
(14 x 26.4%) - (1 X 73.6%) = 3.70 - 0.74 = 3.06
Theoretically you have won 2.96.
Max. win from this pt. is 14 - 2.96 = 11.04
Max loss from this pt is -1 - 2.96 = -3.96
Right now your initial wager is equal to a wager of 3.96 to win 11.04, with 2.96 in your theoretical acct.
Perfect hedge is a wager of 11.04 to win 3.96 that Italy does not win the Euro.
Personal preference will rule on any hedge.
To win a min. of 3.96 with a -175 line you must wager ~7.
Dangerous math on that one, I think. "Won" amount under a perfect hedge I think would have been closer to 4.45 units, I think. Not a whiz with this stuff, could be wrong, I just do a lot of quick math with arbs, and think it would have been closer to that.
Didn't post in the thread, but kept up with it fairly consistently. Very entertaining, great capping, you've gotten a lot of thanks for the time you put into it, one more, thanks for posting Vanzack
I especially liked your perspective on whether to hedge in this situation. The "utility" angle was something I've never really considered in my decision process. Obviously, with hindsight, hedge would have ended up more profitable, but in the end, it was just 2 units, for the chance at 28...very tought to move away from that, especially when you thought Italy had value
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Posted:
#1588
Quote Originally Posted by Wake2002:
Dangerous math on that one, I think. "Won" amount under a perfect hedge I think would have been closer to 4.45 units, I think. Not a whiz with this stuff, could be wrong, I just do a lot of quick math with arbs, and think it would have been closer to that.
Didn't post in the thread, but kept up with it fairly consistently. Very entertaining, great capping, you've gotten a lot of thanks for the time you put into it, one more, thanks for posting Vanzack
I especially liked your perspective on whether to hedge in this situation. The "utility" angle was something I've never really considered in my decision process. Obviously, with hindsight, hedge would have ended up more profitable, but in the end, it was just 2 units, for the chance at 28...very tought to move away from that, especially when you thought Italy had value
Thanks for the compliments. No regrets on my end.
Now - a 6 week vaca from all sports.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#1589
Quote Originally Posted by Wake2002:
Dangerous math on that one, I think. "Won" amount under a perfect hedge I think would have been closer to 4.45 units, I think. Not a whiz with this stuff, could be wrong, I just do a lot of quick math with arbs, and think it would have been closer to that.
Didn't post in the thread, but kept up with it fairly consistently. Very entertaining, great capping, you've gotten a lot of thanks for the time you put into it, one more, thanks for posting Vanzack
I especially liked your perspective on whether to hedge in this situation. The "utility" angle was something I've never really considered in my decision process. Obviously, with hindsight, hedge would have ended up more profitable, but in the end, it was just 2 units, for the chance at 28...very tought to move away from that, especially when you thought Italy had value
Dangerous? OK.
Now, show me your math.
0
Posted:
#1590
You will not last 6 weeks
Aug 5 in when NFL starts and even though you are ex-Prem player, you will not be able to resist betting until then.
Sell Newcastle Points next season
Sell Fulham Points next season
I told you to hedge todays bet - ah well c'est la vie. I admire you for your guts
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Thanks for the compliments. No regrets on my end.
Now - a 6 week vaca from all sports.
0
Posted:
#1591
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:
Dangerous? OK.
Now, show me your math.
I might be wrong, I probably should have just not said anything, main purpose of my post was to thank Van for all his work in this thread, I just am a little OCD when it comes to probability/statistics. I may even have misintepreted, definitely not looking to argue on it. Since you asked though, my math was:
1 Unit at +1400 on Italy (1 to win 14)
9.54 Units on Spain at -175 ( 9.54 to win 5.45)
If Italy wins, you win 14, but lose 9.54 - net +4.46
If Spain wins, you lose 1, but win 5.45 - net +4.45
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Posted:
#1593
Quote Originally Posted by moslo35:
Maybe u should have watched the games 3 more times and u would have hedged with Spain. Oh well all that blah blah blah posts can still be put to good use...print and use for toilet paper. Enjoy sir.
Eat a dick.Maybe u should have watched the games 3 more times and u would have hedged with Spain. Oh well all that blah blah blah posts can still be put to good use...print and use for toilet paper. Enjoy sir.
Sincerely ,
Lunatic
Max Miller a great member of congress!
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Posted:
#1594
VanZack 0 Spain 99..
Spain did you bro.
I never followed when you went against Spain.
Is easy bro.
Spain is the best team of the world by far.
Every team just plays defense against Spain.
Spain scored first and football did us football fans a favor.
Nothing else to say.
Paraguay and Italy are the same shi>>>>>>
0
Posted:
#1595
Quote Originally Posted by Wake2002:
I might be wrong, I probably should have just not said anything, main purpose of my post was to thank Van for all his work in this thread, I just am a little OCD when it comes to probability/statistics. I may even have misintepreted, definitely not looking to argue on it. Since you asked though, my math was:
1 Unit at +1400 on Italy (1 to win 14)
9.54 Units on Spain at -175 ( 9.54 to win 5.45)
If Italy wins, you win 14, but lose 9.54 - net +4.46
If Spain wins, you lose 1, but win 5.45 - net +4.45
You are just trying to equalise your return(same profit whatever the outcome). I'm calculating what the original wager is worth at the time of the hedge(using the -175 line). That amount is 2.96. If you want more out of a Spain victory - that is one's choice. I'm leaving more value on an Italian victory, which was the intended purpose of the original wager. A hedge is to minimise risk(2.96), not wipe it out completely.
0
Posted:
#1596
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:
You are just trying to equalise your return(same profit whatever the outcome). I'm calculating what the original wager is worth at the time of the hedge(using the -175 line). That amount is 2.96. If you want more out of a Spain victory - that is one's choice. I'm leaving more value on an Italian victory, which was the intended purpose of the original wager. A hedge is to minimise risk(2.96), not wipe it out completely.
I think the error in your calculation was using 73.6% and 26.4% when translating the -175 money line. Should have been 63.6% and 36.4%, I think. If you used those percentages, the same calculation you presented would have calculated a worth of the original wager of 4.46 (i.e., the value of a "perfect hedge" in that situation.)
The rest of your post may have looked to do more than wipe out risk entirely, (I wasn't thinking about that angle, I usually like to wipe out risk as much as I can when I do arbs) but I still think your initial calculation was incorrect
0
Posted:
#1597
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:
If you got Italy at 14/1 ...
If you got Italy at 14/1 ...
Spain to win the Euro is currently -175 (or 63.6%) at Pinny.
You've risked 1 to win 14 with a current prob. of 26.4% to win the wager. Therefore, current EV of the wager is:
(14 x 26.4%) - (1 X 73.6%) = 3.70 - 0.74 = 3.06
Theoretically you have won 2.96.
Max. win from this pt. is 14 - 2.96 = 11.04
Max loss from this pt is -1 - 2.96 = -3.96
Right now your initial wager is equal to a wager of 3.96 to win 11.04, with 2.96 in your theoretical acct.
Perfect hedge is a wager of 11.04 to win 3.96 that Italy does not win the Euro.
Personal preference will rule on any hedge.
To win a min. of 3.96 with a -175 line you must wager ~7.
Nice catch. Brain cramp - no idea why I used 73.6 when I had 63.6 to begin with.
I apologise. My calculations fit for a -183 line. 
Thanks Wake.
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Posted:
#1599
Results:
15 - 11.5 - 3 WLP
+4.62 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
15. Ukr/Fra over 2 -120 3 units - PUSH
16. Sweden +.5 -130 1 unit - LOSS
17. Rus/Gre - No bet
18. Pol/Cze - No bet
19. Ger/Den over 2.5 -115 for 2 units - WIN
20. Portugal PK +103 4 units - WIN
21. Spain -140 for 2 units - WIN
22. Ireland +1.5 -115 1 unit - LOSS
23.France -150 for 2.5 units - LOSS
24Under 2.5 -115 for 2 units.WIN
25 Czech +.5 +115 1 unit.LOSS
26 Greece / Germany under 2.5 -110 2 units.LOSS
27France +.5 +115 in 90 mins for 3 units.LOSS
28 Italy big tomorrow - 4 units in regulation time at a PK, PUSH
29 and 2 units to advance. WIN
30 Spain in 90 -100 for 2 unitsLOSS
31 Germany -.5 -105 to win in 90 for 2 units.LOSS
32 Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units..LOSS
1 - 7 WL-18.29 units
Final Record
16- 18.5 - 3 WLP -13.67 units
15 - 11.5 - 3 WLP
+4.62 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
15. Ukr/Fra over 2 -120 3 units - PUSH
16. Sweden +.5 -130 1 unit - LOSS
17. Rus/Gre - No bet
18. Pol/Cze - No bet
19. Ger/Den over 2.5 -115 for 2 units - WIN
20. Portugal PK +103 4 units - WIN
21. Spain -140 for 2 units - WIN
22. Ireland +1.5 -115 1 unit - LOSS
23.France -150 for 2.5 units - LOSS
24Under 2.5 -115 for 2 units.WIN
25 Czech +.5 +115 1 unit.LOSS
26 Greece / Germany under 2.5 -110 2 units.LOSS
27France +.5 +115 in 90 mins for 3 units.LOSS
28 Italy big tomorrow - 4 units in regulation time at a PK, PUSH
29 and 2 units to advance. WIN
30 Spain in 90 -100 for 2 unitsLOSS
31 Germany -.5 -105 to win in 90 for 2 units.LOSS
32 Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units..LOSS
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 unitsLOSS
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 unitsLOSS
England not to win the group at -210. 2 unitsLOSS
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 unitsLOSS
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 unitsLOSS
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units LOSS
Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units. win
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.LOSS
1 - 7 WL-18.29 units
Final Record
16- 18.5 - 3 WLP -13.67 units
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