Euro 2012....

This preview and power ratings are designed as a snapshot PRE TOURNAMENT.  Things happen quickly – injuries, playing form, suspensions etc – so please read this only as wagers and rankings that are being made as of today pre-tournament.  I will update as we move through the tournament.  I don’t have the time or energy to write up every team for every group.  I have opinions about all – doesn’t mean I haven’t done the work – just finding it hard to find the time to put on paper.  Will discuss if asked……

Overall tournament notes:

·         England is overrated.  Again.  How England can be 4^th favorite in this tournament is beyond me.  Does anyone look at the roster?

·         Poland is very short priced and are a sexy pick.  Will pick spots to bet against them.

·         Ukraine is basically made up of Dynamo Kiev (9) and Shakhtar (5) players.  Works for Spain and Germany, maybe will work for the Ukraine as well.

·         France will put WC 2010 behind them.  This squad is loaded and should do very well.

·         Russia is the class of their group.

·         It’s a shame Croatia is in a group with Spain and Italy.  I will pick my spots with them.

·         Italy for me is the cheapest of all contenders.  I will have them at 14-1 to win the tournament.

·         Groups A and D are far inferior to B and C.  Should present some good value in the knockout stage.

·         The first round in intl tournaments have turned in to under fests.  WC 2010 was under 2.5 14-2, and Euro 2008 first round was under 2.5 6-2.  When in doubt, bet under in the first round.

Group bets, future bets etc:

·         Italy to win the tournament +1425.  2 units

·         England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600.  3 units

·         England not to win the group at -210.  2 units

·         England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150.  3 units

·         Ukraine to advance from group D +145.  2 units

·         Russia to win group A +170.  3 units

·         Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125.  3 units.  There will be a big ROI on ROI coming in last.

·         Denmark to finish last in group B -167.  2 units.

Predicted order of finish in each group:

Group A:

Russia  7

Czech 5

Poland 2

Greece 1

Group B:

Germany 9

Netherlands 6

Portugal 3

Denmark 0

Group C:

Spain 7

Italy 5

Croatia 4

ROI 0

Group D:

France 9

Ukraine 6

Sweden 1

England 1

Opening Power Rankings:

1.  Spain +270  98

2.  Germany +300  95

3.  Netherlands +750  90

4.  Italy +1400  89

5.  France +1150  86

6.  Russia +2650 85

7.  Croatia  +5800  81

8.  Portugal +1700  80

9.  Ukraine +5400  76

10.  Sweden +7600 74

11.  England +1150  72

12.  Czech +10000 68

13.  Poland +5000  67

14.  Greece  +100000  65

15.  Ireland  +100000  60

16.  Denmark +100000 58

Opening round game bets:

Poland vs Greece:  Poland come in as co-hosts for the tournament, and are probably going to be overpriced most of the way.  So what happens when two counter-attacking teams play each other?  Greece will sit back and defend all day.  They hope to keep it 0-0 or steal one at 1-0.  For as much as I think Greece are shit – the one thing I can’t get out of my mind is that they were in the same qualifying group as Croatia – and drew with them on the road – and then in the second to last game that would decide sure qualification – beat Croatia 2-0.  The game was played like they always play – counterpunching – but to beat a side of that quality in a match of that importance can’t be written off.  Maybe they will join Chelsea in the year of anti-football success.  In qualifying – 14 goals scored and 5 conceded in 10 matches.

Poland will play similarly, with Lewandowski as the lone man up front hoping to counterpunch.  Lots of pressure on the young home side.  I just see a lot of play in the midfield, with few opportunities or space.  Given that this is the opening game – and both teams will play not to lose – I see the most likely result as a draw.  Therefore, I will be on Greece +.5 at +112 for a small 1 unit.  I also like the under but since it is 2 and giving juice – I will stay off of that.  Most likely result Greece 0 Poland 0 .

Russia vs Czech:  The Czechs aren’t much to speak of – anchored by a decent defense and probably the best goalkeeper in the world – they will play defensively.   I just don’t buy that Rosicky is going to be able to quarterback this side to go very far without anyone up front that is a finisher.  Russia on the other hand are loaded – and their usual weakness – defense – seems to have been shored up lately.  I see Russia with the bulk of possession and chances in this one.  I would have liked to have seen this match later in the group calendar – but I will still be on Russia to win at +128 for 3 units.  Most likely result Russia 2 Czech 0.

France vs England:  Im going to post this one early without a writeup, because the line keeps moving….  France PK -120 (I started betting it back at +110 all the way to -110, but I think this is good all the way to -150) for 5 units.  Big one off the bat.  Most likely result France 3 England 1.

I will be updating this thread throughout.

More first round games will be up soon - as I get the energy.  Most of my bets are already in for the first round.....

Forgot to finish the brakets:

Russia vs Neteherlands

Spain vs Ukraine

Germany vs Czech

France vs Italy

Russia vs Spain

Germany vs Italy

Spain vs Germany

Germany wins.

Yeah.  Without the Bayern players, that will happen.  They lost 5-3 to the Swiss the other day without Neuer, Badstuber, Boateng, Lahm, Kroos, Mueller, Schweinsteiger, or Gomez. 

Please.

Thanks Bracks - to me - there are 4 legit contenders - Spain, Germany, Italy, and the Dutch - so I will take Italy with the best odds of the group.  Look - anyone who gets in the final 8 is only 3 wins away from the title - so anything can happen - but I just think Italy at 14-1 is silly.

Agree with your comments about Spain.  Not sure how you go 4 years without a break and those expectations might finally catch up to them.  Also agree about their possible lack of scoring punch as their potential weakness.  Man for man - they cant be beat - but in any 90....

Looking forward to your picks.

Well, this is how they could line up:

--------------Hart--------------
Johnson Terry Cahill Lescott
Parker  Gerrard  Young  Downing
-------Carroll  Walcott -------

Throw in Oxlade-Chamberlain,  Cole, Wellbeck, and Milner as possibilities.

Where are you seeing strength?  Where are the goals going to come from?

Stewart Downing played a full season at Liverpool - NOT 1 GOAL AND NOT 1 ASSIST.  That seems impossible for a non-defender.  That almost seems impossible for a goaltender.  Im not sure that has ever been done before.  Rooney is out for the first 2 games.  Their one potential is speed - if they play O-C and Wolcott at the same time, that is speed to burn - but thats about it.  Carroll?  Wellbeck?  I just dont see goals coming on the world stage.

Their defense might be strong enough to keep them in games, which is a big turnaround from WC 2010 when their defense was the issue.  But not good enough to take on the offense they will see in this group.

Interested to hear your thoughts - or anyones thoughts on this.

BTW - I think Belgium will expose them on Saturday.  I dont bet friendlies generally - but will have a bet on Belgium for sure.  I think Belgium is way undervalued - and in a perfect spot to get a result.

Everyone else - thanks.

Here's to a great tournament.

BTW - I am not making the trip to the games.  Some personal stuff keeps me at home this time.