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Copa America tournament thread....

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Participants:

Posts: 633

gastown

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 763

Posted: Jul. 3, 2011 - 10:29 PM ET #151

Uruguay

If the final outcome is a draw I will be utterly shocked. Largest bet of the tourny for a modest profit

Surely Uruguay will win by atleast 2

Professional1

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 41623

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 3:32 AM ET #152

chile down to -133

don't tell me another draw

mapleleafsfan

Prospect

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 351

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 10:09 AM ET #153

Uruguay will own today.

BOL

ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 10:29 AM ET #154

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Can I have that 4 hours of my life back?

Jeesh.

That was awful.

No kidding..... 0-0 draws in Soccer or by far the worst...... unless you bet on that to happen.....

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 11:19 AM ET #155

Both lines AGAIN moving against me.

I am going to add on today - cant resist....

Monday July 4th
6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total
7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total

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bakemcbride

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 38084

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 11:34 AM ET #156

I would venture to say the betting public LOVES mexico, and probably hasnt read (or doesnt care) who starts for mexico.

That give Chile bettors some value on game day.

I also like URU and will tail you on the Asian Handicap van.

kvs23

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 776

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 12:12 PM ET #157

URUGUAY is -196 ML and -1 -108. So the ML suggests 66.2% of winning and the -1 -108 suggests 51.9% they need to win by 2. Doesn't the -196 bet have more value. There has to be a 15%+ they win by 1 goal. (I realize the risk/reward distribution different, but the expected value HIGHER in 2nd bet, no?)

Sure, you pay an extra 88 cents in case of a tie - but that is MORE than offset by collecting $ every time they win by 1 goal.

Am I thinking about this wrong as surprised so many people on the -1 but nobody on the ML.

sharpstick

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 8525

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 12:24 PM ET #158

Uruguay team total is 1.5 with the over favored at -120.

Peru team total is .5 with the under favored at -125.

Uruguay -1 is -115.

Seems like Uruguay is the play.

bakemcbride

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 38084

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 12:36 PM ET #159

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

URUGUAY is -196 ML and -1 -108. So the ML suggests 66.2% of winning and the -1 -108 suggests 51.9% they need to win by 2. Doesn't the -196 bet have more value. There has to be a 15%+ they win by 1 goal. (I realize the risk/reward distribution different, but the expected value HIGHER in 2nd bet, no?)

Sure, you pay an extra 88 cents in case of a tie - but that is MORE than offset by collecting $ every time they win by 1 goal.

Am I thinking about this wrong as surprised so many people on the -1 but nobody on the ML.

It simply depends on peoples' betting styles and the teams dynamics you're betting on.

Personally, I dont mind pushing some of my bets as long as i can keep my juice down to a minimum on the losses.

-200 losses will add up quickly over time....

ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 8:18 PM ET #160

can we really see 4 draws in a row?

someone just win, anyone....

arkadymo

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 5107

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 8:29 PM ET #161

I love Chile in this spot; think the value is increased a lot from Mexico being a public team and every favorite not finishing thus far.

Malachiwhy

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 7321

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 8:32 PM ET #162

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

I love Chile in this spot; think the value is increased a lot from Mexico being a public team and every favorite not finishing thus far.

Hope yer right Ark...seems like we're all on Chile here...

gastown

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 763

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 8:33 PM ET #163

I really really REALLY wish I would have looked back to the previous World Cup....same thing happened, draws and U2.5 goals in the first round .....would have already made serious money

ClubDirt

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2003

Posts: 28196

Posted: Jul. 4, 2011 - 11:43 PM ET #164

vanzack, these should carry you through the tournament

ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Jul. 5, 2011 - 12:46 AM ET #165

Quote Originally Posted by gastown:

I really really REALLY wish I would have looked back to the previous World Cup....same thing happened, draws and U2.5 goals in the first round .....would have already made serious money

No shit..... I saw this coming and still didn't bet it as hard (or as often) as I should have.....

First round of games in an international tourney, no one wants to get "eliminated" right away, play close to the vest plus the tightness that comes with playing in winter = recipe for unders and underdogs, especially in those first round of games. WC 2010 first rd of games was 14-2 unders and 6 draws out of 16 games. U could've blindly played under and draw for each game and made a profit. Same for this tourney. 5-1 unders and 4 draws out of 6 games.

2nd and 3rd round, however, things come back to earth when teams start to take chances and get acclimated to playing in the weather and each other.

Gbobgunn

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 4635

Posted: Jul. 5, 2011 - 7:13 AM ET #166

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 5, 2011 - 2:24 PM ET #167

Record:
4-3
Down: .59 Units

Future:
A. Columbia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

Results
1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
3. CR / Columbia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN

Wednesday July 6th
8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units)

I would have needed a real sanity check if Chile hadnt have scored those last two goals last night. I would have been close to jumping out of my window.

Looking back at the opening round 6 games, 5 underdogs and 5 unders covered - and I am sitting at slightly negative units. That seems impossible - and I want to shoot myself - because I know this is the way these tourneys go in the opening round - and I let myself ignore that somehow.

Argentina is my first big play of the tournament here. What a great spot. Argentina at home, with something to prove after a very bad performance, against a subpar Columbian side that just won and had a relatively easy game against 10 man Costa Rica. I would be shocked if Argentina isnt clicking on all cylendars here and just torches Columbia. Every matchup favors Argentina, and all of the intangibles do too - im looking for a 3-0 or 4-0 final.

GL all

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 5, 2011 - 2:26 PM ET #168

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

vanzack, these should carry you through the tournament

Thanks for the tip, never heard of these, will have to pick them up.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

ClubDirt

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2003

Posts: 28196

Posted: Jul. 5, 2011 - 3:48 PM ET #169

i found them at costco. give them a shot. they are pretty good.

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 5, 2011 - 4:42 PM ET #170

Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

i found them at costco. give them a shot. they are pretty good.

To Costco I go!

Maybe I wil run in to Casey Anthony there. She is bound to be super horny and might want a hummus chip or two. (I will keep my children away from her)

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.