Posted:
#176
Professor Van, is it good to bet under 2 1/2 for - 118 ?
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Copa America tournament thread....
Posted:
#178
Quote Originally Posted by holiday-styles:
My local has it at Argentina -1 (-180) and Argentina ml -305
That's a bit less advantageous than Pinny's offerings... if you are in Canada it would behoove you to join Pinnacle for best lines anywhere outside of market sites.
I was quoting Van's play of -1 -1.5 which he got -105.
The ML for that game is well under -300 on Pinny at present. 
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Posted:
#181
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:
gl van i am playing
Arg ht/Arg ft -102 for 1 unit
Draw first half/ Argtenia ft +324 for .31 units
gl van i am playing
Arg ht/Arg ft -102 for 1 unit
Draw first half/ Argtenia ft +324 for .31 units
Professional,
I was tempted to take that bet on 5dimes last night, but I crunched some numbers:
This is like a "double chance" bet.... but your effective odds are in the ball park of -295
go to "odds calculator"
scroll down to "double chance" and pop in your prices in decimal form
You are better off taking Argentina ML -259 at this point, just in case Colombia pulls a "Bolivia" on you and goes up 1-0 at HT
Good luck either way
Those prices are +105 and +327 respectively now
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Posted:
#182
I think Arg HT and Arg FT isn't really a "double chance" as they are STRONGLY correlated. There is let's say a 80% chance that if Arg is up at HT, they win game (probably more like 90%). What's probability Arg is up in 1H - if you think it's 60%ish (then that's 48%+ this hits so -102 is close to right line). And I know NOTHING about soccer (only players I know are Pele, Ronaldo, Beckham, and Adu - seriously), but I do know a little math and just remember we have to be careful about the correlations. Yes, teams come back - a la Chile 2-1 vs Mexico reserves.
Hope this makes sense.
And Bakemcbride, Professional1 - I read ALL your stuff - love both of your guys work!!!!
Hope this makes sense.
And Bakemcbride, Professional1 - I read ALL your stuff - love both of your guys work!!!!
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Posted:
#183
Kvs, thx for the kind words.
By "double chance", I was referring to the fact that Professional is making 2 separate prop bets:
Arg HT/FT -102 and
Draw HT/Arg FT +324
Those 2 bets together are creating a double chance of sorts. My point was basically pointing out that betting Argentina ML costs less
And I want to be clear I am not advising anyone how to bet. Merely the costs involved in this "combo" wager.
Again, good luck to you guys.
By "double chance", I was referring to the fact that Professional is making 2 separate prop bets:
Arg HT/FT -102 and
Draw HT/Arg FT +324
Those 2 bets together are creating a double chance of sorts. My point was basically pointing out that betting Argentina ML costs less
And I want to be clear I am not advising anyone how to bet. Merely the costs involved in this "combo" wager.
Again, good luck to you guys.
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Posted:
#184
Quote Originally Posted by happycap:
That's a bit less advantageous than Pinny's offerings... if you are in Canada it would behoove you to join Pinnacle for best lines anywhere outside of market sites.
I was quoting Van's play of -1 -1.5 which he got -105.
The ML for that game is well under -300 on Pinny at present.
Thanks....what does -1, -1.5 mean ? how does the bet have to play out for you to win.....
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Posted:
#186
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:
Kvs, thx for the kind words.
By "double chance", I was referring to the fact that Professional is making 2 separate prop bets:
Arg HT/FT -102 and
Draw HT/Arg FT +324
Those 2 bets together are creating a double chance of sorts. My point was basically pointing out that betting Argentina ML costs less
And I want to be clear I am not advising anyone how to bet. Merely the costs involved in this "combo" wager.
Again, good luck to you guys.
Kvs, thx for the kind words.
By "double chance", I was referring to the fact that Professional is making 2 separate prop bets:
Arg HT/FT -102 and
Draw HT/Arg FT +324
Those 2 bets together are creating a double chance of sorts. My point was basically pointing out that betting Argentina ML costs less
And I want to be clear I am not advising anyone how to bet. Merely the costs involved in this "combo" wager.
Again, good luck to you guys.
hey thanks for checking the odds out I appreciate that. yes if argentina is losing at the half then i am screwed but i am taking the chance they will be winning or worst case tied at the half gl.
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Posted:
#187
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:
I think Arg HT and Arg FT isn't really a "double chance" as they are STRONGLY correlated. There is let's say a 80% chance that if Arg is up at HT, they win game (probably more like 90%). What's probability Arg is up in 1H - if you think it's 60%ish (then that's 48%+ this hits so -102 is close to right line). And I know NOTHING about soccer (only players I know are Pele, Ronaldo, Beckham, and Adu - seriously), but I do know a little math and just remember we have to be careful about the correlations. Yes, teams come back - a la Chile 2-1 vs Mexico reserves.
Hope this makes sense.
And Bakemcbride, Professional1 - I read ALL your stuff - love both of your guys work!!!!
I think Arg HT and Arg FT isn't really a "double chance" as they are STRONGLY correlated. There is let's say a 80% chance that if Arg is up at HT, they win game (probably more like 90%). What's probability Arg is up in 1H - if you think it's 60%ish (then that's 48%+ this hits so -102 is close to right line). And I know NOTHING about soccer (only players I know are Pele, Ronaldo, Beckham, and Adu - seriously), but I do know a little math and just remember we have to be careful about the correlations. Yes, teams come back - a la Chile 2-1 vs Mexico reserves.
Hope this makes sense.
And Bakemcbride, Professional1 - I read ALL your stuff - love both of your guys work!!!!
thanks for the kind words!
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Posted:
#188
good luck van
what would the book have to offer you pricewise
for you to make a play on the -1.5 ?
just wanted to get your thoughts there 
fuck all the bullshit , you're more interesting than the dosequis guy
wallstreetcappers craps in his draws and pees fuckin backwards from his vaj with a squirt.
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Posted:
#189
BakeMcBride - gotcha, thanks.
You are correct, it is 74.1% combined which is -286.
I set up a ton of calculators in an Excel spreadsheet (basically same place I try to handicap games).
For the -102 and +324 you can just "plug" those into let's say Cell B5
And then your B5 formula should be: =IF(B5>0,100/(100+B5),(-B5/(100-B5))). That gets you 50.5% for -102 and 23.6% for +324. Then, you just add and put in 74.1% in Cell B8 (for example). Your B9 formula should be: =IF(B8>0.5,(-100*B8/(1-B8)),(100*(1-B8)/B8)).
So basically if you copy what I write for B6 and B8 in Excel - you can put in the odds in B5 and B7 and do it yourself.
I understand so many sites have these calculators - but I like to do my own ML/RL/parlay/double bet/factor calculators so I can see for my self the inputs and how each factor weighs in.
Again, love both of your guys work.
You are correct, it is 74.1% combined which is -286.
I set up a ton of calculators in an Excel spreadsheet (basically same place I try to handicap games).
For the -102 and +324 you can just "plug" those into let's say Cell B5
And then your B5 formula should be: =IF(B5>0,100/(100+B5),(-B5/(100-B5))). That gets you 50.5% for -102 and 23.6% for +324. Then, you just add and put in 74.1% in Cell B8 (for example). Your B9 formula should be: =IF(B8>0.5,(-100*B8/(1-B8)),(100*(1-B8)/B8)).
So basically if you copy what I write for B6 and B8 in Excel - you can put in the odds in B5 and B7 and do it yourself.
I understand so many sites have these calculators - but I like to do my own ML/RL/parlay/double bet/factor calculators so I can see for my self the inputs and how each factor weighs in.
Again, love both of your guys work.
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Posted:
#191
Quote Originally Posted by happycap:
-117 on Pinny as of 11 pm EST. Gonna join ya before it goes any higher Van, GL to all
-117 on Pinny as of 11 pm EST. Gonna join ya before it goes any higher Van, GL to all
And the dope that I am - the line is back down to +100.
Im done making predictions on line mvmts in intl soccer tournies. It is flipping coins.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#193
Quote Originally Posted by spockgato:
good luck van
what would the book have to offer you pricewise
for you to make a play on the -1.5 ?
just wanted to get your thoughts there
fuck all the bullshit , you're more interesting than the dosequis guy
Good question.
This all depends on the total, and likelihood of goals - but normally it is right at about 30 cents. I actually am a little bit heavy on the -1.5 as opposed to -1 because I got +142 when the 1 and 1.5 was -108. I took the 34 cents for a little bit more than I did the split line.
Stay thirsty my friend.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#194
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:
BakeMcBride - gotcha, thanks.
You are correct, it is 74.1% combined which is -286.
I set up a ton of calculators in an Excel spreadsheet (basically same place I try to handicap games).
For the -102 and +324 you can just "plug" those into let's say Cell B5
And then your B5 formula should be: =IF(B5>0,100/(100+B5),(-B5/(100-B5))). That gets you 50.5% for -102 and 23.6% for +324. Then, you just add and put in 74.1% in Cell B8 (for example). Your B9 formula should be: =IF(B8>0.5,(-100*B8/(1-B8)),(100*(1-B8)/B8)).
So basically if you copy what I write for B6 and B8 in Excel - you can put in the odds in B5 and B7 and do it yourself.
I understand so many sites have these calculators - but I like to do my own ML/RL/parlay/double bet/factor calculators so I can see for my self the inputs and how each factor weighs in.
Again, love both of your guys work.
BakeMcBride - gotcha, thanks.
You are correct, it is 74.1% combined which is -286.
I set up a ton of calculators in an Excel spreadsheet (basically same place I try to handicap games).
For the -102 and +324 you can just "plug" those into let's say Cell B5
And then your B5 formula should be: =IF(B5>0,100/(100+B5),(-B5/(100-B5))). That gets you 50.5% for -102 and 23.6% for +324. Then, you just add and put in 74.1% in Cell B8 (for example). Your B9 formula should be: =IF(B8>0.5,(-100*B8/(1-B8)),(100*(1-B8)/B8)).
So basically if you copy what I write for B6 and B8 in Excel - you can put in the odds in B5 and B7 and do it yourself.
I understand so many sites have these calculators - but I like to do my own ML/RL/parlay/double bet/factor calculators so I can see for my self the inputs and how each factor weighs in.
Again, love both of your guys work.
Love the math - and love the fact that I didnt have to get involved and use my brain!
Great work.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#199
Fortmax - the over is not a smart play here because the most likely scenario for this match is one where Argentina is the only team that scores. If that is the case, then you have bet Argentina -2.5 as opposed to Argentina -1 or -1.5 as vanzack has posted as his play. This is a mistake I see friends make often because the notion of laying goals in soccer seems to bother people, but when you think about it, you're making the win harder than it has to be.
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