Copa America tournament thread....

Actually - both lines have moved against me again.  The over is now +100 and Paraguay is now +108

I wish I would have waited, but am not going to add anything today - have enough as it is.

Very surprised to see both lines move against you Van ... who is playing Ecuador here?

i don't get why Paraguay line moved to +108

Yeah this is very strange, I got a terrible price at my book and now it is down to -110

Insane line move

Kap hey bro.  My thoughts as well, except that people may be thinking this could be a 0-0 yawner unless Paraguay can nick a late goal..

 

very weird line movement van...not sure i've ever seen you pay 35 cents more than the final price... +111 on 5dimes now. I never saw this coming and I know you probably didnt either.

I will most likely end up tailing you on this anyway as i value your capping skills in International play.

Happened with the Argentina game too - both lines moved against me 50 cents!

I have certainly not been getting the best lines, but line prediction is very hard in these one off tournaments.  

+111 now on Paraguay, and -115 on the over

Paraguay should maintain possession, and Equador should be on the back foot all day.  The potential issue is Paraguay just not being able to score - but I am going to take my chances here - they should have a lot of the ball and a lot of the chances on net.

Im not happy about the line move - but like I said in the previous post - it is really difficult to guage line movement in a tournament that is only played every so often, with an international betting public, and in games that there is no history.  So while I am pissed, I really cant be mad at anything I did because it is just as likely to go the other way - the only thing I can and should do is bet more - but I dont have the stomach for that this early in the tourney.

GL

question vanzack

Brazil vs Venezuela last 7 matches 25 goals total.

Brazil first game of meaning without defensive minded coach Dunga - have been talking in the press about the importance of returning to true Brazilian football - free flowing offensive style.

Venezuela always plays open style - in their last 8 intl games, the games have had a total of 29 goals, for an average of about 3.65 per game.

And to answer your question directly, I do think there is a decent chance that Venezuela does score - Brazil should be open and attacking - and I do think Venezuela will have their chances on net too.

Gun to my head, I think a 3-1 Brazil final would be my prediciton.

so how about venezuela team total over 0.5? its +137

I took "No" on the will both teams score a goal in the Paraguay/Ecuador game...with the way you're talking about the team you favor to win the game possibly not scoring, seems like a good play to me.

BOL Van

Why is this Brazil game so sloppy? Could easily be 2-0 before 10 minute mark.... 

Good luck today on Paraguay van, I added a unit at the new prices after the huge line movement.  Very interesting it moved so much but I'll gladly re-invest at a greater price.  2-0 Paraguay I'm thinking.

I'm the mush that bet the first half, you guys will hit over in the second.

Is Brazil really this bad?  possession? barely. Chances? none of quality......what a barn burner !!!!!!!!!!!

another fixed soccer match!

soccer is horrible!

argentina was not impressive either

betting soccer faves will kill a gambler's bank roll in the long run.

Between -600 Brazil and -500 argentina, a bettor with two seemingly "safe" bets would be down 1100 units in 2 days...

I know its frustrating, but thats what make soccer capping so intriguing...there is so much more to it situationally speaking.

paraguay so close to scoring there

Can I have that 4 hours of my life back?

Jeesh.

That was awful.

Record:
3-2
Up: .28 Units

Future:
A. Columbia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

Results
1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
3. CR / Columbia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS

Monday July 4th
6.  Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units)
7.  Chile -160 (1 unit)

I fear that I am falling in to a trap here - I dont like betting favorites or teams with a lot of hype in the first round of intl tournaments.  As you can see - the games are usually low scoring - and technically lacking - as we saw so far in all 4 games played.  So dogs and unders should be the order - but I am having a tough time ignoring these prices.

I felt like a tool all day today after ignoring all of my own advice to not bet overs and favs - and watching time and time again Brazil and Paraguay not possess the ball because they are not used to each other yet - and I wanted to kill myself.

That being said, Chile is in great form, playing an under 23 side for Mexico.  That should equal a win, but Chile has a new coach and is holding them back from their attacking style that made them a force - and there could be an adjustment there.  I love the big 3 of Uruguay (Forlan, Cavani, Suarez) - in good form they would torch Peru - who also has injury issues to their best players.

We will see - long tournament - but today stung and I am a little gunshy.

good luck vanzack.  Uruguay kills it tomorrow

hard to argue with those picks for tomorrow.