Copa America tournament thread....

mexico sux and are costing me two units vs peru 

had uru/ chile over 2 so it was a push. i have been following you the whole copa tourney. keep your had up van you will bounce back. have you been betting the women's world cup? I have had good results betting England.

Record:
5-6
Down: 6.06 Units

Future:
A. Colombia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

Results
1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
3. CR / Colombia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN
8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units) - LOSS
9. CR +.5 -120 (1 unit) - WIN
10. Uruguay / Chile over 2 and 2.5 -102 (2.5 units) - HALF LOSS
11. Peru / Mexico draw +227 (1 unit) - LOSS

Saturday July 9

12.  Paraguay +1 -118 (3 units)
13.  Equador / Venezuela over 2 -115 (2 units)

GL all

I think Paraguay surprises the public today with a strong showing.

 

 

(and by strong in this tournament, a draw would be acceptable!)

Van what are your units here relative to other tournaments you have done? I remember you saying your units in some other tournament weren't nearly as big as your champions league units, so just curious how these are relative to your other soccer bets.

Thanks.

At 2-1 Paraguay, it is going to be hard to lose this bet.

This is how it has worked out over the past year and a half.....

Not amounts, just ratios:

WC 1.00
Champs League .6
Copa / Gold Cup .5
Typical EPL or league game .3
Europa League .25

Gotcha, so these units are very close to champions league units.

I was gonna take that Paraguay +1 but it jumped all the way up to -140 by gametime so I took the +0.5 at +150. (obviously dropped pretty big too)

Thanks, and nice hit.

One note....

This is a bit of an odd tournament for capping these group games in the 3rd round because 2 of the 3 best THIRD place teams go on to the quarterfinals.

So - a lot of times you can assume if a team gets down by a goal, and they are in the 3rd position in the group - that they will throw everything forward to score - but in this tournament that is not necessarily the case.  They might be happy to lose by a single goal, and play tight.

Add to all of that that the games are not played on the same day - meaning group C will know what the 3rd place teams of group B and A have BEFORE kickoff.

So be careful - and take this in to your calculations.

Group B - for unexplained reasons - plays last - so they play after A and C.

Why am I surprised.  This tournament has been fucked up from the start.

Couldn't have said it better myself

Record:
5-6
Down: 6.06 Units

Future:
A. Colombia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

Results
1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
3. CR / Colombia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN
8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units) - LOSS
9. CR +.5 -120 (1 unit) - WIN
10. Uruguay / Chile over 2 and 2.5 -102 (2.5 units) - HALF LOSS
11. Peru / Mexico draw +227 (1 unit) - LOSS
12. Paraguay +1 -118 (3 units) - WIN
13. Equador / Venezuela over 2 -115 (2 units) - LOSS

Sunday July 10

Im taking a pass on Columbia and Bolivia.  I was tempted to take Bolivia, and will if I can get +1 at -110 or less - but I doubt it will get to that.  Columbia is in the quarters basically already - I cant see 4 points not getting in to the quarters - so a draw would suit them fine here - I dont think they will have too much urgency.  But I think the price is right on the game and total - so I will wait for good games to come - and I have one in my sights already.....

And BTW - why the fuck does Argentina get the advantage of having the other group game played the day before?

WTF is that?  They should know what they need to do to advance before kickoff - I havent really seen this in the last 20 years of tournaments.

And another thing.....

As of today - Argentina would be eliminated.  They are the 3rd place 3rd place team - Brazil and Uruguay would go through based on goals scored.

I saw that as well; home field advantage at its finest.  That's just ridiculous. 

What do you think of Argentina to win the group at +225.  Isn't that a great deal considering a parlay of Boliva +.5 and Argentina ML is around +170 ish?  I'm thinking same about Colombia; they don't have much to play for and Bolivia should be able to at least snag a point.  If that's the case, a simple win by Tina should put them at the top.

No play on Tina? or the Over? Seems like a good time after Unders have gone 11-2 this tourney, right? 

I was eying the under here honestly; Argentina has absolutely no reason to run the score up and CR could theoretically advance with a loss if it's not substantial.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see 0-0, 1-0 type of game...

hi guys

 

new in this platform

Record:
6-7
Down: 5.36 Units

Future:
A. Colombia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

Results
1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
3. CR / Colombia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN
8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units) - LOSS
9. CR +.5 -120 (1 unit) - WIN
10. Uruguay / Chile over 2 and 2.5 -102 (2.5 units) - HALF LOSS
11. Peru / Mexico draw +227 (1 unit) - LOSS
12. Paraguay +1 -118 (3 units) - WIN
13. Equador / Venezuela over 2 -115 (2 units) - LOSS

Monday July 11

Im taking a pass again.  I was waiting for line movement on Arg / CR - but nothing ever became attractive enough.  How could Argentina NOT win this game?  I will be amazed if they dont, they really have to to advance - but Im not interested in the price - and the total seems just about right.  At first I thought under - but if Tina gets up - CR should throw everything at net because they really have nothing to lose - and could see it going over with late goals.

Anyway - better games to come.

Take this with a grain of salt since you know about 7,000 times more about Soccer than I do.....but I really thought you would like the +2 at about -108 currently.

Still dont understand how these group final games are not siumultaneous.  Big advantage to the teams in the second games.

You know what?  I am not afraid to admit it - I am snakebit on Argentina.  I am second guessing everything I do with this team - because of my history with them over the past year or so.  So I feel like I am doing the smart thing by just sitting out.

Honestly - if it is 1-0 or 2-0 Tina - CR will bomb the net late.  I would hate to get pipped at the death with a moose - but can totally understand that lean on CR.  If it wasnt the last game of the group, I would be right there with ya.

Thanks Van, appreciate the comments. Never a bad idea to lay off when you don't feel right about the play.

Looking forward to seeing which future game you are feeling so strongly about.

Final question for today I think. Is there a price at which you would play +2 today? Or are you laying off no matter what?

Record:
6-7
Down: 5.36 Units

Future:
A. Colombia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

Results
1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
3. CR / Colombia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN
8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units) - LOSS
9. CR +.5 -120 (1 unit) - WIN
10. Uruguay / Chile over 2 and 2.5 -102 (2.5 units) - HALF LOSS
11. Peru / Mexico draw +227 (1 unit) - LOSS
12. Paraguay +1 -118 (3 units) - WIN
13. Equador / Venezuela over 2 -115 (2 units) - LOSS

Monday July 11
PASS

Tueday July 12

14.  Peru / Chile Under 2 and 2.5 - 110 (2 units)
15.  Uruguay -1 -119 (3 units)

Welcome to squaresville, population Vanzack.

In short, Peru and Chile both benefit from a draw.  Neither side will benefit from an all out offensive attack - I see something very similar to what we have seen all tournament - lots of defensive play with nobody in a big rush to do anything - even if a goal is scored, this really should be a go through the motions type of game.

Uruguay is so obvious, that it is so obvious I will be kicking myself afterwards - but I cant resist.  Uruguay, in an absolute must win - against under 23 Mexico?  Sorry, but I cant get off of that one.

GL