Super Rugby semi finals

When I projected the lines for this weekends games I came up with Crusaders -8.5, Waratahs -7.5. My book has put up 1 point less for each game. I won't be betting ATS on either game as I don't see any decided advantage at the starts on offer.

I haven't seen any O/U lines yet but I'm expecting a low scoring game at Christchurch and a reasonably high scoring affair in Sydney.

Last time the Sharks played Saders they put up the best super rugby performance for years playing 14 and for 10 minutes 13 against 15, on the Crusaders patch and still taking home the bickies. Crusaders have improved since then and Sharks have probably slipped a bit. What it did show, however, is how committed the Sharks can be in defence. The Sharks will try to turn this into a forwards battle and out tough the Saders pigs. Their outside backs will be up fast, playing outside in defence and try to force the point of attack back inside where the pack will back themselves to hold firm. Won't be pretty but it's their best chance to win. Against such tactics, and their scrambling defence is superb, tries will be hard to come by. I'm hoping the O/U line will be more than 42.5, and if so I'll be on Under.

As for the Sydney game, the opposite applies. While it will be a good battle up front for possession, both sides will be looking for their potent backlines to run in tries. Plus some of those big Tahs forwards are likely to crash through and score, particularly with big Will coming on late in the game. In this one I'm hoping the O/U line will be less than 50.5 in which case I'll be on the Over.

I expect both favourites to win but if forced to bet a side (which I'm not and I almost certainly won't) I would have something small on Brumbies H2H @ $2.75. While I don't think they will win they are nevertheless a genuine chance at a good price.

Good punting all