Super rugby round 4

Good to keep the money coming in last week.

Cheetahs have been a surprise packet with 2 from 2. First up they knocked over the Sharks in Durbin but 1st round form was all over the shop. Coming off the bye they were lucky to beat the Blues. The Blues had already dropped 2 and beating them in SA doesn't rate highly with me.

Bulls first 2 losses looked poor form but Canes and Stormers have shown that they are both sides with legitimate play-off chances this year. In retrospect I rate those close losses as reasonable performances. The Sharks were better against Bulls than they were in the 1st round so I regard the Bulls win last week as better form than the Cheetahs 1st round win.

The above may seem disjointed but in summary I think Bulls form is better than it appears and Cheetahs form worse than it appears. The Bulls having won 1 from 3 are currently $19 to win the comp while Cheetahs with 2 from 2 are $67. This fairly reflects the relative strength of the two sides. Had this been the 1st game of the season the Bulls would have been giving 10.5 start to Cheetahs so 2.5 seems more than fair.

Having put my case in a roundabout way I am jumping on Bulls -2.5 @ $2.10

 Good punting all

BOL Bud, actually like the play a lot.

Going to be big time pressed for time now with the NRL firing up tonight. Lots of games to look over now.

Only one recommended bet this weekend (Bulls -2.5) but thought I'd post my thoughts on tonight's games for those that may be interested.

Last week Chiefs went out to make a statement and did just that. I'll be surprised if they have the same intensity tonight while Highlanders will be out to make a statement of their own. If Chiefs turn it on they could win by anything, while on the other hand Highlanders have enough spark to keep it close. Looking at all the betting options on this game I couldn't find a single one that appealed to me.

The Force have been predictably predicable of late and don't appear to have the flare to turn it around. Brumbies have tremendous attacking ability but it has been their defence that has stood out and hard to see Force scoring many points tonight. On the other hand Brumbies will settle for nothing short of a bonus point win. Assuming they can get say 45% possession they should run in at least the 4 tries giving them probably 30+ points. Brumbies are miserly on penalties conceded so allowing for maybe 1 try from the Force it is hard to see them putting up more than 16 points. I would expect the Brumbies to cover the 13.5.

Good luck with whatever you decide on.

Brumbies defence stood up again last night and paved the way for their win but it's very hard to back them giving big starts when they have so little of the ball during games. Last week against the Rebels 38%, last night 35%. Very few sides can win with so little of the pill let alone snatch a 4 try bonus point. Despite their unquestionable firepower it may be worth looking at the Under in their next couple of games.