Just about got through long write ups on 2 games this weekend when computer shut down. Not typing them up again at this stage but in short Crusaders will win and cover against Blues (I'll probably take -7.5 @ $2.20) and Brumbies will win and cover against Force (I'll take -6.5 @ $1.95).
Happy to run through my reasoning if anyone is interested.
Snake - I disagree on Crusaders. They showed much more flare than Blues who were boring and predictable (Weepu looping his 5/8 4 times - come on). Highlanders defence was impressive although I thought that the outside backs were probably lucky not to be pinged for offside on a few occasions, but I think they were flattered by the Blues attack (or lack thereof). Crusaders up against the Champs still looked like winning, until the intercept, despite missing their 1st 8 penalties. A bit of brilliance from Fruean, an intercept try, all those missed penalties - Crusaders could have won by 20+. Sir John will need to work miracles during the week and I don't think he's got the cattle to do it. Crusaders will come out humming and take this one comfortably.
Tahs played scrappy against Force and still had 20 odd points to spare. Brumbies were solid enough against Reds and the loss will have them itching for a win. Brumbies will finish top 2 in Aus conference and Force will be last. A pretty handy side against a poor one and only a converted try in it? I don't think so.
The 1st 2 rounds have shown that nothing is certain but I am very confident about these 2.
Brief comments on other games-
Rebels/Cheetahs - I'll probably tail Snake on Over 49.5
Stormers/Hurricanes - I try to avoid Canes games as they can be a 50 point different team from 1 week to another. No bet.
Chiefs/Highlanders - were Highlanders any good or were Blues just that bad? No bet game for me.
Waratahs/Reds - Tahs have the best team in comp on paper but very scrappy last week. Always a tough game to pick and this time is no exception. No bet game.
Bulls/Lions - haven't seen any SA games but Bulls traditionally hard to beat at home. Bulls may just be a bad side this year but I'm only going on results. If anything I'd take Lions with the start but probably a no bet game.
In summation - play these games small if you must but save the big bikkies for Crusaders and Brumbies.
Good punting all
Just noticed - after a loss apiece NSW tab odds to top the Aus conference have Brumbies $4, Force $126. They clearly agree with my opinion of the relative merits of these 2 teams yet have only 6.5 point the diff for this weeks clash, with Force favourite at that start.
Go work that one out.
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