Super rugby playoffs week 1

Finished the regular season 10 from 17. Not great but with an average price of around $1.95 finished just a little in front.

There is still an injury cloud over both Pocock and Toomua although I'll be surprised if Pocock doesn't play. Brumbies have become very one dimensional as the season has progressed, relying on their forwards and their rolling maul for tries. It will be interesting to see if they are allowed to get away with illegally joining the maul that has stood them in such good stead over recent weeks. Refs have been instructed to be more diligent in enforcing the maul laws and with Peyper having the whistle they may run into problems. Stormers gave their starters last week off so they will be fresh and of course at home and history has shown how difficult it is to cross the Indian Ocean and win.

All in all I think there are enough plusses for Stormers to suggest that they will win this and probably cover.

The -4.5 @ evens looks pretty good value to me and is my bet.

The other game is the one I'm really looking forward to and I may post a bet on this one closer to kick-off.

Good punting all.

Pocock and Toomua in, Vermeulen out. Odds have changed accordingly and better than what I've taken is now readily available. Vermeulen is a huge loss but the positives still outweigh the negatives for the Stormers. Home advantage and superior scrum likely to lead to more penalties for Stormers and they have arguably the best kicker in the competition. Likely to be a bit of a yawn with ref's interpretation maybe the most interesting (and deciding) aspect of the game. 

In Dunedin I'm taking the under 46.5. I'm not convinced that this will be the running spectacle that many are hoping for, with Chiefs backline severely depleted through injuries. McKenzie loves to attack but he's been shuffled back to fullback and the intention will be to keep the ball well away from him. The Chiefs will try to win this one up front. Both sides backs defence is excellent and I think backline tries will be hard to come by.

Good punting all