Posted:
#1
No time for lengthy write-ups, so I'll just post my leans.
Blues 1-12 @ 2.90
Both teams under strength tonight, but Crusaders more so. They are a menacing unit up front, but it will be interesting to see how they cope without Richie and Dan. The Blues are on home turf and with inclement weather forecast, I am not expecting a blowout. Traditionally, these teams play each other tight. I believe the last five contests have all been settled by less than 12 either way, so it's not a matchup prone to thrashings. Like the Blues to win, but would rather takle the 2.90 for less than 12 than the 1.67 ML.
Force @ 2.36 & Force +3.5 @ 1.91
Who are the Brumbies to be laying points to anyone? I understand they've had some good pre-season results, but this is a different ball game. I don't like betting on away teams in Week 1, but I think the Force represent good value here. Will probably be a scrappy game and I think the boys from Perth have them covered at the breakdown which will make it hard for the Brumbies. I won't be surprised if ACT win, but value with the visitors in a game that I think should be closer to a pick.
Sharks @ 2.05
Are the Bulls the Tiger Woods of the rugby world? Continue to be installed as favourite despite their best being behind them? I know Loftus is a difficult place to visit (especially on opening day), but I really like this Sharks team. Again... another match that should be a pick. If the Sharks don't concede penalties and let Steyn kill them three points at a time, they should win. I also LOVE "either team by less than 7.5" option @ 2.13, which provides cover if the Bulls nick it.
Stormers @ 1.18 as combo fodder
This might come back to bite me in the arse, but how do the Stormers possibly lose this first up game? The Hurricanes are near the bottom of my 2012 projections and I think they'll have a very difficult season. I know they requested a first-up road trip to Africa for team bonding, but are they really expecting to win this? It's being played in the early hours of Sunday morning (AEDT), so I'll throw this in to whatever else I'm backing at the time.
No real opinions on the other matches.
Lean Waratahs at home, but I like them more with Barnes (although the 1.91 on them against a Cooper-less Reds is tempting)
Lean Lions at home, but want to see both these sides play before I back them
Lean Chiefs at home, but the Highlanders have always been hard to work out
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