Super 15 Week 3

Super 15 YTD 4-4-0 -1.35 Units

Horrible week last weekend, lets hope can get the bounce back going with a couple plays that like a lot.

I will make mention however to the fact that there has been a large number of low scoring games to open the season, which does surprise me a little as this is the time of year for the best open and running games were more tries would be scored you would think.

Have just the three plays for right now but may have another 1 or 2 up. Perhaps a little early weekend parlay for the fans out their.

Picks:

Reds +7.5 7 units @ $1.80

I really like the Reds tonight. Yes they are on the road and the Highlanders can not afford to start the season 0-2 but I think that may well be the case. Will take the Try start however just for insurance. Reds were very poor week 1 and they will be the first to tell you that but last week showed some heart and played well. I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt and go with them this week. Highlanders played poorly last week and really were lucky to get the 1 bonus point. Yes they will be better for the hit out but good enough to start converted try favourite, I do not think so. May I also point out that the last 4 matches between these 2 sides has been won by the Reds!

Blues/Cheetahs Over 52.5 5 units @ $1.90

When these 2 teams get together the winner over the past 5 has been the home team. While I can not see that changing tomorrow morning, I also believe that this will be a points feast. When these 2 have hooked up in recent times the scoring has been free flowing and seen a lot of points. I do not have an exact figure on it but I would venture to guess the Cheetahs play the highest scoring average games of any team in the Super competition. Just think this game will have plenty of points in it.

Chiefs -3.5 5 units @ $1.80

Yes the Crusaders got on the board last week but in my opinion they had a lot of good fortune go their way including some refereeing decisions. Chiefs eeked out a win in a game really they had no right to win. That is the class of the side and think they will be better for the hit out. They get their first home game of the season and the fans will be ringing the cow bells loudly for them. Hamilton will be rocking.

BOL

Reds game will be interesting with O'Connor finally making his debut, Thomson against his old mates, the Karmichael Hunt effect on the team, Kerevi v Fekitoa, plus other good man on man match-ups.

I won't be betting either of this pair until I see some consistency (be it good or bad) from them, but am certainly looking forward to the game.

By the way, last night I watched a replay of that Bledisloe when Eales kicked the winning penalty after the bell. Fantastic game, interesting to see how the game has evolved since (probably not for the better) and good to watch some of the stars of old.

Good punting mate

 

GDaymate

The more that i have looked over the opening game of the round the more i like the over. Seems a little high at 54.5 to pull the trigger however if you wait and buy a little time into the game you maybe able to get a number around 49.5 in which case i would live bet and jump all over that. 

My lean is also to the Over - currently 53.5 NSW TAB

GL

     

Super 15 YTD 6-5-0 +4.50 Units

The 2 SA games tomorrow look very tough and really have no lean or feeling about them for tomorrow, going with just tonight.

Pending:

Chiefs -3.5 5 units @ $1.80

Picks:

Chiefs/Crusaders Over 44.5 5 units @ $1.90

Love this play a lot tonight. Such a low total and I know these teams have played a lot of games in recent times that have not gotten over this number but have a very strong feeling that we see a few points tonight. Great weather and both teams look to open up the game and score some tries.

Rebels/Brumbies Over 45.5 5 units @ $1.90

The average score when these 2 hook up has been 49 and for that reason I am going to have another dash at an over. From the looks the books have made a move downward due to lower scoring games and think tonight is the perfect conditions to take advantage and see some points.

BOL

the rebels over 45,5 the pitch, nothing happens, solid pick this week

always have to run on the books, the under / over

Super 15 YTD 8-6-0 +8.00 Units