Super 15 Week 17

Super 15 YTD 56-35 +102.08 units

Well this year the super 15 has been very good to me. Have some tuff games this week to cap so will be relying on the stats alot this week as dont have to many feelings on the games have looked at. Still reckon can turn another good w.e

Picks:

Rebels +11.5 5 units @ $1.80

Well i know how bad the Rebels have been this year but they will have good memories from the last time they played the Brumbies early in the season where they got their first win on a very contraversial penalty. But was a win all the same. The Brumbies are 1-4-1 SU and 1-5-0 ATS in their confrence. On the other hand the Rebels are 2-4-0 ATS and SU. Both victories coming by one point. interesting. Anyway the Brumbies are in a massive let down spot here after a big hard fought win over the Reds they will now be thinking sweet have the poor rebels and after last week should be an easy win. This is why i expect this game to stay within DD. The books have over adjusted after the Brumbies win last week. There is the factor of revenge to consider as it was the the Brumbies who gave the Rebels their first win but i would have ecpected the Brumbies to be laying a try and no more so will take the value and hope the Rebels show up a bit.

Lean: Rebels/Brumbies over 51.5 5 units @ $1.83

Both these teams have shown a lack of D all season. Both teams are 4-2 on totals in their confrence and i expect this game to be a try feast. Just a lean atm but will lock in later after done a bit more investigation.

Lean: Chiefs/Canes over ? 5 units

I expcet this total to drop from the 38.5 which it is at atm. The rain in coming down and will wait to make a play near to game time. Will post if lock this in. The only over in confrence for the Chiefs was the last time these two teams played in wellington. These are two teams who like to throw it round and have a go from anywhere on the field. This is what i expcet tonight as both teams are playing for pride. The Chiefs are 1-6 on totals and the Canes are 2-3 in their confrence. But i expect alot of points even with the rain.

Thats it for now have not made up my mind yet on a side for this game. Will give the stats and my lean atm and will let know bit later on a lock.

Lean: Chiefs -6.5 5 units @ $1.90

Expect this to come down as opened at 8.5 adn the rain will drive it down. Interesting to note that last time these to played the canes were -7.5 favs and now they are getting that. So that is a 14 point swing. seems fishy to me. The Chiefs have improved but the canes have players back now and have improved alot since that loss to the Rebels. The canes are 1-4-0 SU and 0-5-0 ATS. The Chiefs are 2-5-0 SU and 4-3-0 ATS. This is mainly because the Chiefs have been Dogs against the NZ teams. But they have done good job keeping games close and staying in the games.

Sorry for all the leans atm just been busy with doing research into game 5 of the NBA today.

GO HEAT.   

BOL all and will be back to make locks.

06lochie

Havnt had much chance to look those games over but just from a quick look the saders maybe laying couple to many points. Feel that line maybe inflatted due to the Blues loss to the chiefs. I expect that game to be a close one mb like a 3 point win either way. But remember that is just at first glance. The Blues had their first loss in confrence last week and now sit 5-1-0 ATS and SU. They did beat the saders by 2 last time in a game the saders had control of. Both teams coming off a hard loss so expect them to both come out and really play hard D.

Lions have been good cover machines of late and have a slightly better ATS record of 4-3-0 ATS compared with sharks at 3-3-0 ATS.

Not sure on the lions sharks game but from little work have done Blues +7.5 looks good.

Now back to my plays for tonight was spot on with the poor weather the start is already down to -5.5 and i expect this to drop mb to even -3.5. So just going to hold off and wait for more line movement. Its poor weather today but prior to today had been sunny so field will be wet but not a mud pit.

Bet365

They offer good live betting on all sports

Snake, the o/u is 36.5...

I heard it is raining there, are u in Hamilton?

Na im not but my uncle lives down the road from the staduim. It has been raining all day but now has sort of stopped but he said to expect to see paddles.

Locking:

Chiefs -5.5 10 units @ $1.80

They will have to much class in the tron. They will want to put on a big game for there home town. IMO they do it by DD.

Chiefs/Canes over 37.5 5 units @ $1.83

Going to go out on a limb here and play the over. feel even with the bad weather should be a few points in this game. wont be the same defensive game as last week.

BOL to you all.

Davopnz

Blackcrow

Rostos

Super 15 YTD 56-37 +82.08 units

Rebels  ( going to call this one early its a blood bath )

Chiefs

Over

Well great start to the w.e ae. My god going to have to do some massive research for tmrw nights games after my bloody exam tmrw moring.

Yea mate happens to me every year ae. Not sure y or how but it does, its only commercial law so just remember the cases and ur good to go.

Well that was a poor start to the w.e on Friday night but have a few games like the look of tonight.

Picks:

Crusaders/Blues under 46.5 5 units @ $1.83

LAst time these two teams played eachother the score was 24-22 to the Blues. Just under the total but dont expect to see that many points this time. These two teams are off the back of losses the Blues on 3 game losing streak and the saders loss to the Reds which was BS. any way the saders are 2-3 on totals in confrence and 6-2 outside so they play NZ teams with tuff D. The Blues are in a similar position going 1-5 on totals in confrence and 6-1 outside so they also play NZ teams with tuff D. I expect these teams to come out and play the game leading with there D first as they are the two best Teams in NZ. Also it is fine weather in Timaru but expected to get down to 0 degrees tonight. Not the best conditions and will make for alot of dew and not beneficial conditions to a running open game.

Leans:

Blues +7.5 5 units @ $1.80

Highlanders +7.5 5 units @ $1.90

Wish had brought this earlia as was at +9.5 but will hold off and hope it goes back up. Like the Highlanders to bounce back tonight.

Lions +9.5 5 units @ $1.80

They have been playing great rugby of late and will be happy to be home and playing infront of a home crowd. I expect them to keep the game close but not win. Just dont see the Sharks winning by DD with revenge on the mind of the Lions after a good road trip.

Stormers -4.5 5 units @ $1.90

They will be to good. enough said.

Will be doing all my write ups and plays later just thought would post some of my thoughts and see what you guys think. Havnt looked at totals yet but will have a look and see if there is any that look to good to give up.

Well have been doing my work and have these so far as locks.

Locks:

Blues +7.5 5 units @ $1.90

The Blues have been poor over the last few weeks and have not been able to get the win in hard fought games. But this is a game im sure they have been looking foward to. They always play the saders hard and these two teams are by far and away NZs best. The Blues are 5-1-0 SU and ATS in the confrence with the only loss coming to the Chiefs last week. They got the saders last time by 2 so cant understand why the line is now 7 but im not going to complain will take the value. The saders are 3-2 Su and 2-3-0 ATS in the confrence. They have been ok in the NZ confrence but mainly got there big wins against the overseas teams. Look to see this game be decided by 3 points imo.

Reds -4.5 5 units @ $1.80

They will be on the bounce back this week and looking to play alot better than did last week against the Brumbies. I feel that loss is the reason for such a short line here and the fact the force have been much improved over the last few weeks. But i expect to see an angry Reds team come and show they are worthy of winning the comp. Their class will show. The Reds are 5-2 SU and 3-4-0 ATS in the confrence mainly due a few games of giving alot of points away. The force are 1-4 SU and 3-3-0 ATS so have not been good at all against the other ozi teams. Just feel the Reds come out with a point to prove tonight.

Highlanders +7.5 5 units @ $1.80

This is more a play on the fact of how bad the tahs have been outside the ozi confrence rather than how good the Highlanders have been. The Highlanders should be fired up for this one and keep it close. The Highlanders are 3-4-0 ATS and 4-3 SU. So they have been ok. The Tahs are 1-5-0 ATS and SU so have been very poor and dont expect that to change tonight. I feel the Tahs may edge this one out at home after there trip to SA but will be close. The tahs had to fly against time as well to get home so maybe get tired towards the end of the game.

No more plays on Totals dont really see anthink that stands out and most the teams are pretty even in terms of over and unders. Havnt really had a good look at the 2 SA games as of yet but lock those plays later in the night.

BOL to those tailing and hope we kill it tonight after poor one last night.

Davopnz this game will be very tight mate. Will decided in the last 10 mins imo but havnt had a good start to the w.e so maybe im fade material.

Super 15 YTD 58-37 +90.78 units

Blues

Under

Well another good start to a saturday night and hoping to continue on in a winning manner.