State of Origin III (2013)...

Got the last leg of a multi/parlay pending with the Maroons to win SU, so effectively have Queensland H2H at $2.50 for 5 units.

May make an individual play or play a few exotics closer to game time.

Blues have lost a ton of 'competitive class' with Hayne and Gal-roid out, just can't see them troubling the Maroons too much.

Queensland 10-4-2 SU in the 16 'deciders' played since Origin began in 1980 and 2-0 SU the last two played at ANZ.

The 'Spines' of either team (1,6,7,9) have these combined W/L records in Origin games...

NSW 6-16 (Dugan 0-2, Maloney 1-1, Pearce 3-8, Farah 2-5)

QLD 56-31 (Slater 13-8, Thurston 17-9, Cronk 8-3, Smith 18-11)

Hard to argue with the wealth of experience in key positions for the Maroons...

Slater, Inglis, Hodges, Thurston, Cronk, Smith

With gallen and hayne out i couldn't even tell you the blues best

Find it helps a lot to compare were the money is going and what movement you see.

Hard to play at 120% for the full 80 minutes and that's what NSW will have to do. Could see the 1st half being played on adrenaline but the class and experience of the Maroons should win out in the end. James McManus ? Loz needed to put a 'game breaker' in there like Uate, the Scotsman was the 'safe' option and 'Snake' would have been the better choice at fullback than Dugan, dude hasn't played a game in over 2 weeks. Roaches squad definitely lacks class whereas the Toads are riddled with it.

As for the line, from memory this is probably the biggest dog they've been in Sydney since the inception of Origin, at least in the last 15 years anyway...

These are all the kind of things that were said before QLD went on this streak. All good things must come to an end and i feel that happens tonight.

It is crazy in sport how the loss of one big star gets the rest of the team to a level they do not usually play at. I see big Andrew F having a huge game tonight and playing like he has never played before.

The halves now have 2 games at this level together. James knows both feelings and he knows what he must do. 

I just have a small feeling that QLD may think we rolled them last game and this game will be closer but in the end out game breakers wil lget the job done. They wil lleave it to others and that would just be enough.

But this is why they have forums so people can have different opinions. 

My guess is i am one of only a few on NSW tonight

It does have to start somewhere but the Maroons have kept their core nucleus throughout whereas the Blues chop and change constantly. Fancy the Blues chances next year as opposed to this year in all honesty. Todd Carney and Adam Reynolds should be the halves pairing, imo. They are both wizards with the boot, something this current NSW duo extremely lacks. 

I see the opposite in league with the 'star player out' angle, only pro-sport with noted success in this instance is the NBA. For the most part teams in the NRL crap the bed when their best is not there, imo (yeah, the Chooks beat Manly without Maloney and Pearce a few weeks back but that's because they're not the 'best' players at the club, that honor falls on SBW with the rest of that forward pack being the 2nd 'best'). Hayne is NSW's best back and Gal-roid is their best forward. Team lacks the x-factor with Jennings being the only true 'game breaker' but he is often half-behind at best.

 i would love nothing more than a blues victory but i just can't see Pearce and Maloney leading us there

You are the only one and that includes theprofits.com and the-thinker.org who I regularly follow.

BUT....  most people lose betting.  Getting considerable + money on the home team in the decider is a rare event.  I don't think I will be able to resist $50 on MSW 1-12 at over $3.

I see Luxbet have abandoned their bonus bets on the result in favour of a MVP offer.  My guess is that they got taken to the cleaners the last two times with NSW 1-12 in Game 1 and QLD HT/FT double in Game 2 both paying out.

GL to all....

Cheers.

Most of the stats are personal ones that I have taken note of throughout the last 5 seasons but a lot of the quirky ones are from various sites around the net, pretty easy to find if you look. RL stats on Twitter are a good one...

Got it wrong. NSW were a 6 point dog in Game 3 at ANZ in 2010 although Queensland had already won the series having won the first 2 games so motivation could have been a factor, the Maroons won the game 23-18...

Leggo !

Grats Queensland. Won in the face of adversity tonight, well done lads...