Some NRL Stats - O/U so far this year

Including last nights 2 games, there has been 44 overs and 66 unders so far in 2011.....In the last 42 games, 29 of those have gone under. Unders hitting at 60% YTD and basically 70% in the last 42 games. That is very abnormal

This even after the bookmakers have adjusted totals recently.

Common totals these days are around 36/37.

Surely, surely the points scored are gonna have to be reverting back to the mean soon.

Thoughts?

 

Yeah games have clearly been low scoring as teams copycat what St George did last year. Which is why I think the team that wins this year is one that can score points. That would be the likes of Cowboys, Sea Eagles and I would think the Storm is up there aswell.

I noticed last year with how I looked at matches that if I didn't like the over, it had a huge strike rate of going under - no diff this year.

Look for teams that match up well - that doesn't always translate over, hard to explain without current example. Scoring stats of last month or so in relation to season - home away, and is there a trend against better teams in the standings.

And how many times do we see them on or inside the 5 meter line, 3-4 tackle and they run right back to the defense where the last tackle took place with 4-5 players waiting.