Against these common pool opponents, NZ has won by an average of 29, Tonga has lost by an average of 7. So in a vacuum with no other context, I would expect NZ to be favored by about 36. But they have already clinched top of the division, and Tonga still has getting to third in the group and into the next WC automatically to play for (although it's a slim chance), so I'd move the line slightly towards Tonga.
Instead, NZ is favored by 39-42. What am I missing? Is Tonga looking like a good bet against the spread?
I know little about rugby union so feel free to correct my mistakes and sneer at my obvious ignorance.
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Question about New Zealand - Tonga
Against these common pool opponents, NZ has won by an average of 29, Tonga has lost by an average of 7. So in a vacuum with no other context, I would expect NZ to be favored by about 36. But they have already clinched top of the division, and Tonga still has getting to third in the group and into the next WC automatically to play for (although it's a slim chance), so I'd move the line slightly towards Tonga.
Instead, NZ is favored by 39-42. What am I missing? Is Tonga looking like a good bet against the spread?
I know little about rugby union so feel free to correct my mistakes and sneer at my obvious ignorance.
Hmm Romanian +3.5 free money then....
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