Rugby World Cup 2023 hedge/value tips

Hi,

Here are my WC 2023 tips, which are doing well so far.

So far I have bet around 2,500 euros in back bets in total on England(@7.8 dec.), SA(got them @8.8), and Wales (@26.8), which have all started to move as expected and at this point I can lock in around 700 euros in profit on these bets, but I expect them to shorten more so I'll let them run until the tournament is closer.

Here are the tips (in UK odds), originally posted July 4th on my Minds.com wall (@amicusmedia):

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Wales currently excellent value at 25/1 at William Hill, Boylesports and SBK. Expect this to come down to around 12/1 to 14/1 by the start of the tournament. SA also still good value at 6/1, England will also shorten from current 5/1 to 7/2. I predict Australia and Ireland to drift from current 11/1 and 8/1 respectively as big four time their runs in the run-in to the tournament.

My odds predictions for Sept 1st 2023:

New Zealand....3/1 (drift slightly)

France...............7/2 (drift slightly)

England............7/2 (shorten)

South Africa ....4/1 (shorten)

Ireland..............10/1 (drift)

Wales...............14/1 (shorten heavily)

Australia..........15/1 (drift)

Predict England to go on a run with warm up games and possibly Six Nations 2023, seeing them come in to around 7/2, possibly 3/1.

Note these are my predictions for the odds come the end of August 2022, not the tournament winner. My tournament winner prediction: SA.

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Ireland and France haven't started moving yet, and I think Ireland may even shorten a little this year, but I do expect them to drift by the time the tournament comes around.

On my wall there's one there on the Six Nations 2023 as well if anyone is interested. I backed Wales at 18/1, and they have since shortened a little to 16/1. I expect them to shorten more through this year going through the Autumn Internationals.

@Amicus

 Wow, your insights on the RWC 2023 odds are spot-on! It's exciting to see your bets moving in the right direction. ???? I'm particularly intrigued by your predictions for England's performance. Let's hope your winning streak continues!

@debbie290

Odds started coming in later than I thought, and Wales even went out to 50/1 at one point so I got more on them.  Didn't trade out in time with Wales though, as I thought they'd beat Argentina.

I still made a profit of around 25,000 GBP on the WC in all though, after a few match bets on England, SA, NZ and a couple of specials, and picking SA for the win (which I got at 8/1 ages ago mainly). If Pollard had missed that goal kick at the end of the England math I would have made around 60,000 after trading out the back bets I had on England, or around 80,000 if they had won the final. So that penalty (which wouldn't have been a penalty if the scrum contest were properly officiated in rugby) basically cost me about 25,000. 

I didn't see your post otherwise I'd have gotten back with some predictions about England.

I learnt a lot this WC.

Roll on 2027.