Round 5 Super Rugby

Chiefs v Force - The Chiefs are top of the try scoring pile so far in the competition with 19 whilst the Force are at the bottom with only 4. The chiefs have the most line breaks also with 49 in the last four rounds. The Force are notoriously bad at retaining possession which I think will prove costly against the best counter attacking side in the competition playing at home. The Chiefs have a point to prove after losing their first home game to the Lions in round 2 and are building momentum with away wins to the Kings and the Jaguares. The Force proved how feeble they are against the Hurricanes in round 4 and I think they will get beaten very well again this week.* Chiefs -17 *

Rebels v Highlanders - Both teams have won 3 out of their last 4 games with the Highlanders who have had to play the tougher games. The Rebels have only been tested properly once when they came up against a dominant Bulls side that beat them 45 - 25. Despite the fact that the Highlanders had a bumpy start to the season they seem to have settled in a bit more and will be looking to continue their winning streak. The Highlanders built up a 30 - 0 lead against the Tahs away from home last week and fell asleep at the wheel when they slowly let the home team back in the game after 56 minutes. They have shown that they can hurt a side from anywhere on the pitch and will be looking to see out the game earlier now and not letting their try bonus slip away like they did last week. The Rebels have come in to their own recently but I don't think they will be able to keep up with the Highlanders. *Highlanders -5*

Sunwolves v Bulls - This is one of the harder games to predict considering the Sunwolves are a brand new team and these teams have never faced each other before. The Sunwolves are on 3 game losing streak with all losses at home (wherever they consider their actual home ground). The Bulls have had mixed performances so far in the competition and haven't found any rhythm. I do think that the Bulls will win this but I think -17 may be a little too big a handicap. I would stay away from this game for its unpredictability but if I were to bet on it I would take the Sunwolves +17 because they have shown that they are capable of scoring points, especially against South 

African teams. ** Sunwolves +17 **

Cheetahs v Brumbies - The Cheetahs have started the competition very poorly with 1 win from 4 games which they picked up against the Sunwolves , a game in which they very nearly lost. The Brumbies on the other hand have 3 wins from 4 games, their first 3 were very convincing wins , beating the Force and the Tahs by 17 points and the Hurricanes by 42. They were pipped by The Stormers last week in a suprise loss. The Brumbies have won 8 of the last 11 times they have played against the Cheetahs with an average scoreline difference of 10 points with the Brumbies on top. I think from what I have seen of the Brumbies so far this season they are serious contenders for a place in the final and I think they will easily be able to deal with the Cheetahs as they have a much better kicking, running and defensive game. They will beat them by at least 15 in my opinion. **Brumbies -9**

Sharks v Crusaders - This is a game that I think will be a high scoring, fast paced game with lots of kicking and running reminiscent of their meeting last year. Although the Crusaders team looks a lot different to what it was last season they still show a lot of class and they have players that can create line breaks and finish tries. Mo'unga looks to be showing no signs that he is rookie he is very much so confident in his own skin and knows how to control a game. This is the Crusaders first away game of the season and I think they will sneak a win, from what I have seen over the last four weeks, the Sharks are doing well to be where they are in the table and I think they have been slightly over rated so far. ** Crusaders to win is a great price at 6/5 *

Jaguares v Stormers - Another game tough to predict for the fact that these sides have never met before. Going on last week's performances alone, I would say the Jaguares (who were very unlucky to have lost to the Chiefs) will set the pace of this match with their flashy, offloading style attacking from all areas of the pitch. The Jaguares went in to their maiden tournament as over rated slightly and haven't met the expectations the fans have predicted after Argentinas brilliant form at the recent World Cup. They do however have game breakers like Cordero, Landajo and Sanchez to name a few. These players are capable of creating something from nothing with inches of space to work with. The Stormers deserve credit for their performances, they are a hard opponent to rack a big scoreline against because they play a very clever tactical kicking game and take their 3 points when they are on offer. I don't think that they use their weapons (Cheslin Kolbe and Juan de Jongh) to punish teams in attack as much as they should. They will try to dominate the game with their big pack and slow the game down but I think(and hope) the Jaguares will be able to manage at scrum and ruck time and Sanchez will be more than able to keep them in the game off the tee. **Jaguares to win at 4/6 is a reasonable price, would not go Stormers +3 because I don't know how close it will be**

Reds v Waratahs - The Reds have finally broken their losing streak , albeit with a meagre 25 all draw against a sloppy Blues side. They have yet to taste victory in this year's competition but I do not see this week being their moment. They have a relatively poor record against the Waratahs (losing by 20 points already this season away from home). The Tahs have a point to prove after last week's disappointing performance against the Highlanders. They took 56 minutes to wake up and start playing rugby and managed to come within 4 points of the Highlanders who at one stage were up 30 nil. They are at a crucial point of their season with a rocky start to the season they will be looking to get a try bonus against the Reds who are weak and in a transitional stage with new head coaches. I think they will win by at least 14 points. *Waratahs -6 is a steal imho *

 

Also over 63.5 in the Canes game at 5/6 is tempting.

The only thing I am slightly apprehensive about this game is that Barrett's goal kicking might cost me the big handicap or over points, hopefully if they score enough tries that won't be as much of a factor though. Will be posting again tomorrow night for saturdays games

It's 3.41 pm in Wellington..not looking good.... If it rain will be close game...