NRL Week 16

Well going to lock down the under.

Chooks/Knights under 38.5 5 units @ $1.83

Like this play as i said both teams have been under teams this year. Feel the knights will struggle to score with no reall good ball player in the halves and not alot of experience there either. The Chooks have ha troubles on attack so expect a score line of 18-8 to the Chooks

BOL and go gettm Chookies

NRL YTD 73-60 +29.93 units

Panthers

Well chooks look shot atm but my under is looking good. Come on the Chooks to keep my sweep going.

NRL YTD 74-61 +24.08 units

Chooks

Under

Well that was so shocking how can the Chooks not even be on the bottom the table by a far and away.

Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:

i lost heaps...when i will i learn...so f'n gutted right now

Im happy didnt lose heaps and i have had another very good w.e

Up 27 units ruffly for the w.e making that 3 in a row now where have been able to make so good good money.

Thanks Blackcrow

We both had good w.es for 2nd w.e in a row

haha thanks for that.

Well tonight we have a great match. Should be very good viewing and great game tonight. heres what i think so far.

Saints/Sea Eagles under 34.5 5 units @ $1.83

Well i like this play alot. Just feel there will be very few points in this game and be made up of alot of D. These teams are to very good teams this year in D. Saints are 6-8 on totals and the Sea Eagles are also 6-8 on totals this year. MNF totals are 5-9 this year so so far the stats point towards the under. Even thou has been some what adjusted down from 37.5 but still like it alot. See in being a 12-10 game as was the closesness of the Titans and Saints last year.

Undecided on a team yet still trying to work out the best play. The stats point towards the Sea Eagles ATS but just dont know how they are going to get the win .Saints are so so very good at home. hmmm

Well im going to learn my leason from yestrday and take the stats play.

Pick:

Sea Eagles +2.5 5 units @ $1.90

Well just feel they will have enough to keep this game very close. IMO Saints have more players who are going to have Origin on their mind rather than this game as big as it is. Just feel the Sea Eagles have enough to keep this game very close and could be decieded by a field goal imo. Any way this year the Sea Eagles are 11-3 Su and 9-5-0 ATS. Saints are 10-3-0 Su and 8-6 ATS so have been good but have not covered the points as mush as would have thought. There is the MNF stat that is if u win MNF as a favourite the next week you are 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS and thats why im picking the Eagles. Just cant argue this stat as its hitting 100%. Although will note that in this point range ( 0.5-4.5) favs are 5-1-0 ATS this year. So there is something for the saints backers just cant see them winning.

Anyway should be a very good game. BOL to use all.

Well i really like the Eagles to some and get some points and get back into the game. They saints D has been good but will be very tired towards back end of the game.

Halftime Play:

Sea Eagles +11.5 5 units @ $1.90

NRL YTD 75-63 +18.23 units

Under

Sea Eagles

HT Sea Eagles

Well crap finish to the w.e but still another winning w.e. Didnt really think that saints really deserve to win by that much. Really they got lucky on the first try and about 4 run aways when defending there own line? wat does that tell u. Luck in key moments.

Mate, that is why the game is alot alot more harder to cap these days than say 6-7 years as i have stated.

I am about 60% this season, but back in the earlier part of the decade, i was honestly about 66-67%.

Reason is because the defenses are so good, because the (exchange rate - points scoring is alot lower) means that strokes of luck, error are determing games.

Its not nearly the same amount of luck involved in baseball, but the gao is narrowing.

Put it this way, in basketball, if a player makes an error, big woop. If a player makes 3-4 errors, big woop.

I a team makes 4-5 more errors than another team, big woop.

In baseball, if a team makes an error, just one, that often is the difference between winning and losing, not just the game but your bet as well. Furthermore, you cannot cap errors. Has anyone ever said.

Say for example, someone played the Bluejays yesterday, did they say, i am gonna back the Bluejays because i reckon the Cardinals ae gonna make an error? Hell no. Well, they made an error and it cost 5 runs, game over. Just 1 mistake.

In league, becuase tries are so hard to come by now, one mistake is all what it takes, furthermore, no one can cap tries off kicks. Yesterday i got my over in the Cows game cause Purtell dropped a bomb and in another case, Coote got a wicked bounce, the game is being determined more and more by luck as scoring opps become much much harder.

Back earlier in the decade, it was so much easier to cap, u knew which teams could score through legit tries etc...

This is the bookmakers ideal scenario