Ok, here we go,
3-0 this weekend, 8 - 1 in my last 9.
There has been a flood of under the past 3 weeks.
It is pouring down here in Sydney. The TAB opened the O/U at 36.5 then suspended it. It is now at 32.5 That is very very low.
Mmmm, might have to wait till second half.
Very very strong lean on over in the Storm game.
These 2 teams played the Gf in very similar conditions last year, there were was 38-40 points scored in that game.
However, that game had NO right going over, first of all, Dragons got 6 points 2 tackles after Brett Morris had half his body over the touch. I was sitting 50 metres away on the same side as where Morris got put into touch and the touchy was 1 metre away and he didnt see it? 
Secondly, Lelua plants the ball on a dragons player, knocks it forward, but they give it a try.
Thirdly, Dean Young knocks the ball onto a Roosters player but they give it.
All up, 16 points scored that should NEVER have happened, and that is the difference between winning and losing an over under.
Oh wait, according to Hirshfelder, it is possible to cap those 3 blatant ref errors. When deciding over and under in that game, if you looked at the mean and variance of ref errors, u should have allowed for 16 points to come from ref errors.......
I DONT GIVE A F### what anyone says, if you bet over that game, U GOT LUCKY, If u bet UNDER that game, U were UNLUCKY. Its as simple as that. Under was the correct play that game.
Ace
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