ITM Cup Week 3

ITM Cup YTD 7-9 -3.70 units

Well what a horrible midd week performance that was. I cant belive that neither the overs cashed in either game as both had looked so good and how did the bay not cover. Oh well have to get past that and as you boys pointed out bounce back is about to begin.

Having a look over the game at the moment but with Otago getting 3 AB's back for the game and looked very impressive against Northland i think they could be the way to go getting 5 points as well. I had expected them to be favs for this one.

Whats everybody think for this one.

BOL

While otago did impress against Northland, they looked shaky and it was more about Northlands inability on defense that cost them. They threatened otago every time they got the ball but otago had the better discipline/d. Also they are getting one all black back because thomson and ellison were already playing, I do think Ben Smith is a livewire.

The bay blew every 2nd opportunity they got last week, on paper they dominated that game. With Sam Cane back, a Latimer/Cane/Braid loose trio is going to kick some serious ass.

I'd be leaning the bay -4.5 and the over

Well i am going to respond to this as for a change was contructive. The loose fowrads for Otago are also very handy so really no big advantage their. I give the advantage in the pack to Otago which is always huge when trying to get go foward ball. The Backs for both teams look exciting and explosive so really i believe this game should be a pk.

So in my thinking im getting 5 points of value really. This BOP team is not the same as has been in previous years when they have been successful.

But this is all one mans opinion.

Have been looking over the game and have decided to make some plays after the lean i listed above.

Picks:

Otago +5.5 1 unit @ $1.90

Well lets start with Otago won their first up game over northland and looked very good. They get back some AB's tonight and well last week the BOP D was less than to be desired. I think even though BOP are at home this game should be a PK so i will take the 5 points of value here.

Otago/BOP Over 52.5 1 unit @ $1.90

Now have been burned the last 2 nights on the Over play but this game should go Over. Both teams first round games went over and in recent times the teams have played high scoring games. Also of note both teams have players all over the park who can create something from nothing and could expect a few tries in the game tonight.

BOL

agree with snake. i also like otago as well. their backs r beter than the bay. otago +5.5 seems pretty good

Otago with better backs and BOP with far better forwards. It's a tough one and fuck I'm sick of getting burnt on these overs haha still trying to toss up sides 

spot on phatty.

Snake, were u really born in the bay of plenty?

I was born in the mighty town of Whakatane

Rugby Fan

Phatty

Rostos

Na mate as i have stated many times on here i bleed RED BLACK AND YELLOW. Hamilton boy and love my MOOLOO MEN

THE BAY

man oh man first week got off to a great start and now has just be a down hill slide.

ITM Cup YTD 7-11 -5.70 units

Luck has to turn sometime soon because at the moment could not get much worse

Otago

Over

Counties are in a prime position to beat hawkes bay on the short turnaround

Yea they do look like a really good bet tmrw and i will more than likely pound them

Yea going to hit Counties well tonight 

Phatty

Well going in large on the game tonight as its the POW in my mind.

Pick:

Counties Manakau +3.0 3 units @ $1.90

This is biggest bet i have laid in a few weeks. Counties looked super good on sunday and now get to play Hawks Bay off the back of 2 losses in which both games they only really showed up for 40 mins of. The Counties team on paper looks really strong and they welcome back their captian tonight which will be a huge benefit to them for the game tonight.

BOL

Counties out to +4.5 now. 

BOL on the big play bud

Lakey

ROD

Yea should have waited but did not want to wait and the line go down. All the same like my line and still really like the play

I'm chasing the over. Good Luck Snake.

Yea i will be as well mate. Just waiting for the MLB games to finish. Have been out at golf all arvo on the piss with some clients from work. So have a good strong buzz and going to wait to see what happens with these MLB bets to see how big i go.

Lunchbox

Play off 3 mate. Have been playing for around 8 years since i was a little guy. Now im a very big boy.

Love my golf ae, have club champs starting tmrw so really looking foward to that and hoping can get a good first round under my belt and kick on from their.

Now onto the game tonight. Have been taking a pasting of late but im going with the same formular tonight.

Pick:

Counties Manakau/Hawks Bay over 52.5 1 unit @ $1.90

If this game does not go over then i am done with totals in the ITM cup. So far have been robbed almost every game and this is my last throw of the dice. Both these teams should look to play expansive footy and hopfully we will see some points tonight and a care free over.

BOL

3   , That's great golf. BOL