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Battler's NRL 2009 Futures

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Posted: #1
My favourite time of year is here ...
 
...and I'm nore excited about 2009 than I have been for a season in a long time. Bennett to St George, Folau to Brisbane, Barrett to the Sharks (along with some notable extras) and Kimmorley to the Dogs. Every season the salary cap seems to further spread the talent pool and bring the teams closer, and while the merits of the cap in it's current state are worthy of a thread of its own, you can't help but be excited about season 2009.
 
I'm going to throw maybe 10 units at some futures and would be interested in the opinions of all the covers NRL boys. I'll start by giving my fearless predicitions of the fate of all the NRL combatants this year, to see if we can't unearth a few gems.
 
From Manly down to the Dogs, here's what I reckon 2009 may hold:
 
 
 
Manly: Deserved title favourites imo. You have to admire what Max and the administrators have done with this club. Last years premiership was about 4 years in the making, harking back to when they signed the likes of Orford and Kennedy. They have lost more than they've gained, which is inevitable when you win the comp - look at Melbourne - but they should still be top 4 certainties. Chris Bailey is a good signing for them, he can play 6 (or lock) and leave Lyon in the centres. I'll probably have a dabble on them to repeat. 
 
 
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Melbourne: I think the best years of this dynasty are behind them. They'll be very competitive of course - any team with Slater, Inglis, Cronk and Smith will be - but look at who they've lost: Jeremy Smith, Antonio Kaufusi, Israel Folau, Michael Crocker, Matt Geyer. Who have they added? Nobody of note. I think Melbourne go backwards this year. They'll make the 8, maybe the 4, but they'll be having none of my money.
 
 
Cronulla: The big movers in the player market. Will have arguably the best backrow in the comp. Corey Hughes will be a good signing too, as much as I hate the prick. Will all this give them that elusive premiership? Nope. They will miss Kimmorley HEAPS and no way would I trade a crafty halfback for a ball-running 5/8. They should make the 4, but won't win shit. Again. Oh, and Stuart is still the coach, so...
 
 
Roosters: Another club who have lost more than they have gained. Playing Sa at 5/8 so Anasta can play lock? So that they can sign Carney? No way do the NRL let Carney play, unless the Roosters sign him and take them to court for restarint of trade. Another side who I believe will go backwards. They also signed the most promising junior from up this way, whom the Knights were monitoring very closely, just because they can. Pricks.
 
 
 
 
 
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Brisbane: Will struggle big time to repeat what they did in 2008. Obviously no Bennett, but also no: Hannant, Ennis, Boyd, Stagg, Kemp, Carroll and Eastwood to name a few. Lockyer's lost his protector, apparently they'll play Parker in the 4 slot. Folau and Hodges may well be the most feared centre pairing in the world (if Folau even plays centre) but I just don't see this young side backing up week after week. Cusp of the eight.
 
 
Canberra: My favourite side to watch last year. Unfortunately, I don't see as much hope this season. Like Brisbane, they've lost their coach and then some: Zillman, Weyman, Best, Costigan, Withers, Chalk, Goodwin. They've added some quality, and should still be good at home, but until they can win away they won't figure. Had them pegged as making the 8 @ $3+, but have since scrapped them.
 
 
St George: Ah, St George. The most underachieving side of the last decade (Melbourne aside). I like them this year. Bennett obviously the big factor, but I think they have bought well in Jeremy Smith, Michael Weyman (great buy imo), Luke Priddis, Neville Costigan, Darius Boyd, Mickey Paea, Mathew Head et al. The halves still concern me, but I'm rock solid that they'll make the 8 and that will be one of my bets. The 4 might be a good wager if you can get it as well. They have a backrow rotation to rival anyone imo, with Smith, Creagh, Costigan, Young and the rest (Scott and Prior)...
 
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New Zealand: Definate dark horses. One of the few teams from last years top 8 who I think are actually stronger this year. They lose Wiki yes, massive blow, but they get STACEY! And Lillyman, and Denan Kemp. If they can learn to win away from New Zealand, they'll be definate top 4 candidates. I'll have money on them, just not sure in what capacity yet. 
 
 
Newcastle: The Knights had a successful 2008 during the rebuilding under Brian Smith. They haven't added too much to the squad, the main buy being Isacc De Gois for a certain D. Buderus. They also picked up Ndaira (Smith wants Hilder to play as a backrrower) and Rogers. I must admit, I'm sceptical about Rogers, but time shall tell. They should finish around the cusp of the 8 at worst, maybe top 4 if they can put it all together. I still think they are another half (Carney2010?) and outside back (Hodges) from being a real threat, but they'll compete and be tough at home for any visiting team. $2.10 to make the 8 offers no value though, imo. 
 
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I'll chuck my two bob in re the Gold Coast Titans if I may AB,

Gold Coast : A club on a mission. It may only be the Titans' third season in the NRL, but the pressure is on EVERYONE, from Scott Prince to the front office receptionists, to make the playoffs in 09. The offloading of some "dead wood" in the off season has given way to a host of talented young guns from the under 20's to push for positions in the top team. David Mead (formerly David Moore) is one to look out for, a young winger who represented PNG at the world cup and is training the house down. Chris Walker also returns after missing all of last season due to an achilles injury, and you better believe he's hungry. So hungry, he slapped a complete media ban on himself until he logs his first minutes in an NRL game. New recruit Will Zillman will be an asset, and Sam Tagataese should provide some impact off the bench. As always, the key will be Scott Prince, and whether he can escape the injury curse, but with Ian Lacey, Brad Davis and Jordan Rankin waiting in the wings, there's some capable backup if the worst should happen again. Expect this team to be very very hard to beat at Skilled Park.

likely line up: 1.Preston Campbell  2.Chris Walker  3.William Zillman  4.Brett Delaney  5. Brenton Bowen  6. Matt Rogers  7. Scott Prince  8.Luke Bailey  9.Nathan Friend  10. Brad Meyers  11.Anthony Laffranchi  12.Mark Minichiello  13.Ash Harrison 

bench: Aaron Cannings, Daniel Conn, Sam Tagataese, Josh Graham

 
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Now, now AB mate, no need to get all hussy on the Chooks because they stole the Knights' eyeballer.
 
We all know Freddy knows exactly what he's doing and will lead us to the Promised Land.
 
Either him or rubbing Fitz's head 300 times for mystical magic before every match.
 
HAR HAR HAR...
 
Enjoy the season buddy...
 
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Posted: #7
JT, Zillman is a great buy. They have a good pack and a brilliant halfback. Chris Walker and Brenton Bowen don't scare me though - they need some more strike
 
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HoH - it had to be the Roosters didn't it? The team that have scrapped their junior development program in favour of the smash and grab approach
 
 
Here's to a great season mate...
 
 
 
 
Oh, and pencil in the weekends of May 15 and July 31
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

HoH - it had to be the Roosters didn't it? The team that have scrapped their junior development program in favour of the smash and grab approach
 
 
Here's to a great season mate...
 
 
 
 
Oh, and pencil in the weekends of May 15 and July 31


Newcastle/Sydney is always a good scrap.  It's usually tit for tat.

I do agree with you though.  I think my Chooks are on the way down as opposed to up.  Last season was an amazing go especially with Anasta playing out of his mind at times.

We've gotta work on that 2nd Half bit though.  1st Halves were brill followed by the biggest steaming dumper of the round. 
 
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Posted: #10
Penrith for the wooden spoon  
 
Terrible off season in terms of player gains - losses.
 
They look really weak
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

 
 
Manly: Deserved title favourites imo. You have to admire what Max and the administrators have done with this club. Last years premiership was about 4 years in the making, harking back to when they signed the likes of Orford and Kennedy. They have lost more than they've gained, which is inevitable when you win the comp - look at Melbourne - but they should still be top 4 certainties. Chris Bailey is a good signing for them, he can play 6 (or lock) and leave Lyon in the centres. I'll probably have a dabble on them to repeat.

Hard to repeat, hasn't been done since 92-93. Better teams then Manly have been up there and failed to repeat. Melbourne and Roosters made 3 GF's in a row and 1 Premiership. Brisbane couldn't do it either. (not to mention Sydney, West Coast and Geelong in the AFL). They will be up there though
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

Melbourne: I think the best years of this dynasty are behind them. They'll be very competitive of course - any team with Slater, Inglis, Cronk and Smith will be - but look at who they've lost: Jeremy Smith, Antonio Kaufusi, Israel Folau, Michael Crocker, Matt Geyer. Who have they added? Nobody of note. I think Melbourne go backwards this year. They'll make the 8, maybe the 4, but they'll be having none of my money.

The class is still there but the depth is gone. Numbers 14, 15, 16 & 17 used to be as good as the starters, but no more. Too much class to fall too far, still top 4. Only injuries and rep season will hurt them
 
 
Cronulla: The big movers in the player market. Will have arguably the best backrow in the comp. Corey Hughes will be a good signing too, as much as I hate the prick. Will all this give them that elusive premiership? Nope. They will miss Kimmorley HEAPS and no way would I trade a crafty halfback for a ball-running 5/8. They should make the 4, but won't win shit. Again. Oh, and Stuart is still the coach, so...
 
Sharks best players last season - Kimmorley, De Gois, Gallen and Bird. Only 1 left. Barret is going to have to have a career year to match Kimmorleys form from last year. Is Topou (a Roosters bench player) really an upgrade on an Australian start in Bird? When was the last time Matua put in? Hughes is a downgrade on De Gois. Ben Ross in the front row? And where are the points? And Ricky Stuart
 
Roosters: Another club who have lost more than they have gained. Playing Sa at 5/8 so Anasta can play lock? So that they can sign Carney? No way do the NRL let Carney play, unless the Roosters sign him and take them to court for restarint of trade. Another side who I believe will go backwards. They also signed the most promising junior from up this way, whom the Knights were monitoring very closely, just because they can. Pricks.
 
Mason, O'Meley are past it, Fitzgibbon is on old legs, Pearce is only a kicker. Fittler plans to play his best player out of position at lock? Will Mini regain old form? My numbers had them, along with the Sharks, over achieving last year. They will regress

Start looking for a 2010 coach Politis
 
 
 
 
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Will get back to you soon with the others Battler. Found a nice bet too
 
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Manly: Deserved title favourites imo.




A bit off-topic, but I have to ask anyone who might know. Anyway, the wife bought herself a Manly jersey on Oz Ebay (as she's a lifer Manly fan) for $70, signed by all the players. She mentioned something about the same jersey was going for like $120 in a shop somewhere.

Question - is it worth it?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by SecondAgain:

Will get back to you soon with the others Battler. Found a nice bet too


I want some respect for the Warrior....
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

Brisbane: Will struggle big time to repeat what they did in 2008. Obviously no Bennett, but also no: Hannant, Ennis, Boyd, Stagg, Kemp, Carroll and Eastwood to name a few. Lockyer's lost his protector, apparently they'll play Parker in the 4 slot. Folau and Hodges may well be the most feared centre pairing in the world (if Folau even plays centre) but I just don't see this young side backing up week after week. Cusp of the eight.

Will miss the 8. Bennetts lose is being under-estimated. Lockyer is getting injury prone and I have a suspicion he will only worry about rep games this year before going to England next year. Stagg and Caroll gone is a massive hole, that's 90-100 tackles a game gone that somebody has to fill. I really think they don't have the forwards to compete. It's no use having the best backs in the comp if the forwards do nothing.
 
 
Canberra: My favourite side to watch last year. Unfortunately, I don't see as much hope this season. Like Brisbane, they've lost their coach and then some: Zillman, Weyman, Best, Costigan, Withers, Chalk, Goodwin. They've added some quality, and should still be good at home, but until they can win away they won't figure. Had them pegged as making the 8 @ $3+, but have since scrapped them.

Made a killing backing this mob last year. Some of those loses are no that great. Zillman, Withers, Chalk and Goodwin were all gone during the great run last year. Weyman was becoming a liability with penalties, suspensions and injury. Haven't really looked at who they have gained. Canberra will not get under oppositions gaurds this year, and Campese is a marked man. May sneak into the 8, probably won't
 
 
St George: Ah, St George. The most underachieving side of the last decade (Melbourne aside). I like them this year. Bennett obviously the big factor, but I think they have bought well in Jeremy Smith, Michael Weyman (great buy imo), Luke Priddis, Neville Costigan, Darius Boyd, Mickey Paea, Mathew Head et al. The halves still concern me, but I'm rock solid that they'll make the 8 and that will be one of my bets. The 4 might be a good wager if you can get it as well. They have a backrow rotation to rival anyone imo, with Smith, Creagh, Costigan, Young and the rest (Scott and Prior)...

This backrow, not the Sharks is the best in the comp. The in's far outweigh the outs in my opinion (including Gasnier and Ryles in that statement). They have brought in both quality and depth. The front row lacks some size in the starters, but Bennett will solve that. The question mark revolves around Head. If fit, especially at the back end, we could be looking at the Premiers. Importantly, Bennett will play guys in their right positions, unlike the goose before him. In saying that, we maybe a year too early

Take the $1.85 at Centrebet of St George finishing the regular season ahead of Parra
 
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Quote Originally Posted by SecondAgain:

Will get back to you soon with the others Battler. Found a nice bet too

Looks like we are more or less on the same page

 
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Quote Originally Posted by norseman67:

Manly: Deserved title favourites imo.




A bit off-topic, but I have to ask anyone who might know. Anyway, the wife bought herself a Manly jersey on Oz Ebay (as she's a lifer Manly fan) for $70, signed by all the players. She mentioned something about the same jersey was going for like $120 in a shop somewhere.

Question - is it worth it?

Would it be worth pissing on a Manly jersey if by chance it caught alight? No.

 

Is $70 a fair price to pay for an authentic jersey, let alone one personally signed by the team? Yes

 

 
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$70.00 for a jersey auto'ed by the whole squad!?

WOWOWOWOW!

Nice!
 
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Good Afternoon ole Chaps
 
great to see some debate about the league rolling in
 
i can't wait for the kick off and some quality returns for 09.
 
 
will be back with my thoughts in due time, just checking in at the moment. Adios Amigos
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

New Zealand: Definate dark horses. One of the few teams from last years top 8 who I think are actually stronger this year. They lose Wiki yes, massive blow, but they get STACEY! And Lillyman, and Denan Kemp. If they can learn to win away from New Zealand, they'll be definate top 4 candidates. I'll have money on them, just not sure in what capacity yet.

Forget the in's and out's at the warriors, forget the coaching. It all comes down to one thing - how the warriors handle the loss of Sonny Fai. He was a hugely popular player at the club, much like Sonny Bill at the Dogs 3-4 seasons ago. If they can harness this emotion they are a definite Top 4, maybe top 2 team. However, if their emotions get the better of them then it could be a long season. I suspect the latter
 
 
Newcastle: The Knights had a successful 2008 during the rebuilding under Brian Smith. They haven't added too much to the squad, the main buy being Isacc De Gois for a certain D. Buderus. They also picked up Ndaira (Smith wants Hilder to play as a backrrower) and Rogers. I must admit, I'm sceptical about Rogers, but time shall tell. They should finish around the cusp of the 8 at worst, maybe top 4 if they can put it all together. I still think they are another half (Carney2010?) and outside back (Hodges) from being a real threat, but they'll compete and be tough at home for any visiting team. $2.10 to make the 8 offers no value though, imo.

Oh dear, AB's talking up the Knights. Firstly, forget Carney, he's going to a team that has won a premiership this decade Ben Rogers is there to bulster the NSW Cup team. If he makes an appearance in first grade then fade. Vuna is a loss for the season. A decision needs to be made on who is the leader of this team Mullen or Gidley. Until then they will contiune to be a rabble in offense. De Gois is a good gain, very under-rated pack. Looking good for the 8

 

 
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Wests Tigers: Spoon contenders imo. Take Marshall or Farah out of this side and they'll struggle, obviously. Lost their heart and soul in Hodgson, also lost the very promising Ben Teo. Will be interested to see how Ellis goes though. Miss the 8 by plenty.
 
 
Parramatta: Absent from the player market. Like St George, have underachieved given the talent they've had available ever since they were bitch slapped in the 2001 GF. Michael Hagan looked like he wanted out for a large part of last season, and it showed in the side. Have a good back line, terrier at halfback, class in Mateo. Question mark over their forwards though. Anderson will help, but how much? As Second suggested, St George to finsh higher then them looks mighty good @ $1.85. Cusp of the 8 at best.
 
 
Penrith: Next
 
 
Gold Coast: See Jive_Turkey's post above. If Prince stays fit they'll go ok, but I probably don't share JT's optimism
 
 
Souths: Basically a complete overhaul of this squad, so hard to guage how they go. They do have a good mix of young kids and old heads though. They'll beat a few home, but I can't help but look at the South Sydney setup and think circus. Jason Taylor is an idiot also, which doesn't help.
 
 
 
 
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Down to last and second last of 2008. They won't be there in 2009 wat ch....
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
North Queensland: Should improve plenty if they can have luck with injury. Biggest signing for them is Neil Henry as coach. What he was able to do with that Canberra team, particularly on the offensive side, should bode well with Thurston and Bowen. If you watched some of the lines the Canberra back rowers ran last season - this team could be a real handful. They've added Tonga at centre and some class and mongrel in the pack. Top 8 definately, higher if injuries and rep duties don't hurt them too much. 
 
 
Bulldogs: Along with Cronulla, the biggest movers in the player market. A couple of real good buys too, with Kimmorley, Ennis, Hannant and Stagg all very shrewd moves. If you browse their top 25, they are as strong as many sides, on paper at least. Kimmorley will be the key though. What they lacked most last season was direction in the halves. He'll give them that, along with a solid tactical kicking game to help them tie down and pressure teams in their own half.
 
I think the $3.00+ available for them to make the 8 is great value.
 
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Oh dear, AB's talking up the Knights. Firstly, forget Carney, he's going to a team that has won a premiership this decade Ben Rogers is there to bulster the NSW Cup team. If he makes an appearance in first grade then fade. Vuna is a loss for the season. A decision needs to be made on who is the leader of this team Mullen or Gidley. Until then they will contiune to be a rabble in offense. De Gois is a good gain, very under-rated pack. Looking good for the 8

I thought I was very objective

Newcastle don't have a NSW Cup side this year. Vuna should be right in 10 weeks. All noises from within the club are good.

Gidley is captain and leader until Mullen can show he is ready. As I said, they are still short a decent halve to partner Mullen. They beat every top 8 side except Brisbane last year. If they can learn to beat one of the big boys in their own back yard, they'll make the 8.

I agree, pack is very under-rated. In fact, I'll go as far as to say there are only a handful of packs that could put it over them this year.

 
 
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Titans v Knights in round one AB  
 
 
 
 
 
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