All Blacks at Dunedin

Before looking at this game I've got to say I love the way Hansen publicly supported Cruden's piece of idiocy when he must have privately been tearing his hair out. He has great man management skills and his results reflect this, It is a shame for aussie rugby that Dean wasn't better in this area. 

Now I am really looking forward to this weekend's game for numerous reasons. Can the Poms carry on from last week? Are the many changes to the English side to England's advantage? Will AB's make the same tactical errors (it goes without saying that they won't make the same skill errors)? Savea v Tuilagi. And of course from a betting point of view - is 14.5 too many to give?

Last week the Poms really put in and probably deserved at least a draw. The AB's played badly - their skill levels were at a 10 year low, they kicked away far too much possession, they gave away scrum penalties etc etc yet they still managed to win! The Poms may well be jubilant about their performance but deep down they know "they just can't beat the bastards". As for the changes, Lancaster really had no choice, whether he wanted to make them or not. You can't have 46 players for 4 games is it, and only play half of them all tour. I believe the changes will work to AB's advantage. The one AB's change could make a mountain of difference. For starters it is only one player so the same bunch have the opportunity to redeem themselves and they will surely want to. Plus Smith is playing his best footie at fullback (and he's playing better than Dagg at the moment in any case) and Savea is a huge boost.

Last week the Pommie outside backs moved up very fast and the AB's either took them on wide out, where they had no room to move, or punched the ball in behind them. Neither tactic worked. I expect on Saturday they will keep the ball in hand and attack them back inside. Perhaps Cruden taking the line on more, perhaps popping to Savea coming in from the blind, perhaps the pigs punching it up more around the edges - whatever. They should (and I suspect will) keep the ball in hand, attack the inside, turn the defending outside backs around and then find some space out wide. This, in my opinion, will be the decisive (and deciding) change from last weeks game. 

Tuilagi to wing? How much did Conrad sling Lancaster for this one? He was the most damaging runner on the paddock last week and I can't see him getting anywhere near the same opportunities on the wing. Nevertheless his encounter with Savea  is tantalising and the winner of this battle could well decide whether the AB's cover the spread or not.

So in summation. The English team changes and the AB's one change are to New Zealand's benefit. The Poms had their one shot and went close but no cigar. The AB's will have revised their tactics and consequently be much more dangerous. The AB players know they escaped the ultimate disgrace (getting beaten) and will be 200% (as opposed to their normal 150%) committed to the cause.

The All Blacks WILL win and I expect them to cover the 14.5.

Good punting all

For "just can't beat the person" read "just can't beat the bast**ds". Covers censors treat us like kindergarten kids.

Disagree big time, times are changing here in New Zealand we're about to go through a weak era of rugby where as England is about to go through a very dominant era. There are many players in this team that had gradually being getting older and decreasing in skill level, this has now carried across to Super Level for many of these players where these old hogs have been getting exposed. Richie McCaw can no longer get round the paddock like he used to and when he does hit a ruck his old beaten body doesn't have much off an impact, not to mention the fact that he can barely tackle now. Liam Messam or should I say Liam Missing, pretty much sums him up he hates the physical stuff and is rarely seen on the field. There is a front row crisis particularly at hooker, Coles has the body of a 12 year old girl and gets dominated at scrum time, whilst Old Kev can hold his own in the Scrum he doesn't do much else. Kieran Read is a massive loss, he is the best player in the world and sets up SO much of the all black attack, not to mention his work at the breakdown and the amount of tackles he makes. England have a FAR more dynamic forward pack than the AB's and clear superiority in their loose trio(not to mention Vunipola to come off the bench) There is more balance in the English backline this weekend with 12trees and Burrell already a proving winning combo. 12trees offers an excellent kicking game and more defense(you can bet your life Nonu will be running straight and hard this week) So this shores up the midfield nicely while Lancaster has the brains to put someone on the wing who can match Savea physically - You already know how key Savea is to the AB's attack. The culture Lancaster is building within this loaded wider England camp is something special and that untested team they fielded last week has given them believe they can beat the Blacks on NZ soil. Everyone in the world is expecting an All Blacks backlash but times are changing I'm telling you.

Sorry forgot to say everyone is talking about how awful the Blacks were and they won't make all those mistakes again, it seems like everybody has forgotten how many mistakes England made also, they squandered countless raids deep in AB's territory not to mention the fact that Nonu should have been binned for his cynical jersey pulling early on which likely would have seen an England try had he not...Anyway I've laid my case, bring on tomorrow night.

Yep, I think both the All Blacks and France will cover.

Put the pipe down davo. AB's by 15+.

Agree that some scrambling AB defence saved the day on occasions and as I said, the Poms probably were entitled to at least a draw.

Thanks for your strong felt reply - it is what the forum is all about. I agree with Ritchie's diminishing impact as has been seen in super rugby. In one game (it might have been against Blues) he got in the right spot in cover to knock over both wingers and missed them both resulting in 2 tries! Still, he is Ritchie and his presence alone counts for something. AB's would certainly be better with both Reid and Kaino on the paddock.

Thanks again for your response and enjoy the game.

Cheers mate, may the best side cover the cap on the day 

davo

I would kind have to agree with you, we are no chance at the WC next year and I remember this happening to the AB's about 14 years ago now. In the late 1990's they were so far ahead of the rest of the world, then they got old and NZ went through a patch of about 3 or 4 years were Aussie had out number easy and I think that time is almost upon us.

Like England with the points tonight, but better still like the over tonight. Down their under the Roof points just flow like crazy.

Yeah mate rough times ahead for us, our under 20s have shown our development has deteriorated as well. 

Yea I think that Barrett is over hyped as well. much the time he comes on the paddock we are up and on top and he looks good, however last week he looked poor. I know out of position but still looked very bad on a side going backwards. People are putting to much faith in him. I think that AC is light years ahead of him personally, but then again I am a keyboard warrior and not a selector.

Yea I think that Barrett is over hyped as well. much the time he comes on the paddock we are up and on top and he looks good, however last week he looked poor. I know out of position but still looked very bad on a side going backwards. People are putting to much faith in him. I think that AC is light years ahead of him personally, but then again I am a keyboard warrior and not a selector.

another great trading game, f yeah 

Congrats to Davo and snake - not really sure what to make of that one yet

AB's plastered the cracks in the 2nd half, the holes will open again though. Englands inexperience and lack of composure cost them the game, and Brown not running the correct support line on Tuilagi's run before HT. Next week will be another guy

When did AB's last give up 14 points in the last 10 minutes? Invariably if they are in front ATS with 10 to go you can get in the queue.

Probably just talking through my kick but maybe you are right Davo and they are on the wane. Dunno - still scratching my head.