AFL Round 18

Just posting some thoughts. Too much time on my hands...

Freo @ Pies

I think Freo are done for the season. They are low on the ladder and have tough draw. I think they'll start planning for next year... or should. Hamling should get traded in the off season. Good player but 30 so only a couple of years left. 

Pies are going to manage players but they'll win this game. Odds are getting a bit short. 

Weather for me is a consideration. Might be wet. Definitely cold at the MCG. 

Saints @ Suns

St Kilda are a better side at Marvel. After this round, they have a 5 game stretch. 2 wins then some interesting games. This is an important one. 

Suns dump their long serving coach. Usually teams lift after that kind of event. They are better at home. Weller missing is important.

I just think the Saints will lock down and play like they did at the start of the season. Saints should win this but probably going with the line.

Port @ Carl

Port resting players on the away games. They won enough in a row. Carlton turned up last week but the Dockers didn't. Carlton are unreliable. 
I like this one to be high scoring, high disposal game. I think the total should be a couple of goals higher but see how Port react without Dixon. 

Bombers @ Cats

Cats in Geelong are the best home team in the comp. Bombers playing well but not enough. I think they are missing a key back and good ruck so won't be in it. 

Giants @ Crows

I don't rate Giants but they keep winning. Tipping Crows at home. 

======== SUNDAY =========
Roos @ Hawks
Just on form, Hawks should win but both aren't good this year.

No Simpkin, Goldstein, Ziebell... the Roos are just playing for experience. The way they are going, they might not even beat WCE.

Tigers @ WCE

WCE are starting to play better at home but it's just a rubbish game with little value. Prop bets will be looked at.

Best picks:

Pies ML + Cats ML + Saints -9.5 @ $2.45

Pies ML + Blues O166.5 @ $2.01

Should be raining during the Pies game. Might be scrappy so being conservative.

Backed the Wallabies. 

Today, I'm expecting an open game at Marvel. Should go over and should be high possessions. Based on form, Hawks should win but they are both low on the ladder so some are thinking of getting some wins for the kids and some are thinking of the wins in the draft. 

Hawks actually shouldn't win this game. This and the last game are the only two where they have a good chance for the rest of the season. They are on 4 wins and if they win 5, they lose their priority pick. I know... bit early to start tanking but lets see. 

Taking one of the popular same game multis at Sportsbet... 11 legs, $3.75

Bugger. Posted the 11 legs bet but it didn't show up. 

Here's another 4:1

• Luke ShueyTo Get 20 or More Disposals
• Shannon HurnTo Get 20 or More Disposals
• Dion PrestiaTo Get 20 or More Disposals
• Dustin MartinTo Get 20 or More Disposals
• Shai BoltonTo Get 20 or More Disposals
• Jacob HopperTo Get 20 or More Disposals

Weather is great. Richmond have horrible percentage and will want to win by a good margin so should move the ball quickly. 
WCE are better at home and have their age back in their backline. They'll use the ball. 

Should be lots of messing around with the ball. 

Dusty O23.5 possessions (no one can match his strength in the mids - only risk if he sits forward to increase their percentage)

Shuey O23.5 possessions (only games where he hasn't have been when he has been injured)

4:1 lost with one leg losing (Shannon Hurn got 17)

Dusty got 23 (lost)

Shuey got 21 (lost)

Wasn't a great game for me or to watch.