garbagetime

I would have fired McDaniel with five minutes left in the game. I'd have sent state police out to rip the headset off him and escort him off the premises.

Another of my books has Houston -2, so I've taken it.

I'm not sure where this Russell Wilson was when I bet on them. I swerved today.

@theclaw

 For years, I've been backing teams the week after they lose by four touchdowns on the road. It has always done well, 55-58%. But a couple of years ago I split the data into three buckets: teams that lose by 4 TDs, teams that score single digits on the road (regardless of the final score), and teams that both lose by 4 TDs and score single digits on the road.

The one to throw out is those that lose by four TDs while scoring double digits (except for home dogs; they cover at 63%). 

Season: 3-1

Took Miami -1 (on Thursday; it's -2 now). Detroit is up to -6.5.

Gonna wait on the Texans...I suppose I'll take them without any hesitation if Det and Miami both lose. If they both win I'll for sure swerve on the Monday night game. NYG I just can't do, no matter what. It feels like setting money on fire.

The reason for the hesitance on Miami and Houston...home favorites in their situation are great in October, so-so in September. Although it's not a lot of chalk. Tampa has a second straight road game, and they should have lost in Atlanta. Texans looked pretty average in L.A., but had a shot to win late.

Last week: 2-1

First week of bounceback plays, but I'm not sure about playing any of them, because of who is favored and where they're playing.

The plays would be:

Miami -1 (v NE)

Houston -2.5 (v TB)

NY Giants +6 (@ DAL)

I like both favorites, which is usually a bad sign.

A couple of teams ripe to be faded: Indy off their thrashing of the Fins, Pitt after outlasting the Jets.

I have already taken:

GB -3.5 (homer play, but I honestly think a great defensive performance against Detroit is better than a great defensive performance against the Giants)

DET -5 (took it yesterday before the Bears imploded. The line actually dropped to -3.5; it's -6 now)

I'm kinda loving these results. I lost the Eagles -4 pick on a 53-yard FG when by all rights I might have pushed that one.

But the other bet is what's making me smile.

I play soccer every Thursday night, and we all look forward to the NFL season so we have something to watch at the after bar. When we came off the field, I checked my phone and saw the HT score of 21-20, and I said to my friend that, 'Gee, I should have taken this one straight rather than teasing it...it hardly ever happens where the teased bet wins where it wouldn't have just won outright.' And I added that, well, nothing was certain...the game could definitely still finish under 47.5.

And, in fact, it did. Three second-half points. It was my only rooting interest remaining (my teaser had survived by HT, but I wanted to see the under hit), and it was really fun to watch, after the weather delay. It really goes to show you just how random betting on sports is.

(So far)

Eagles -4 1H (-115)

LA Chargers +3 (-105)

8-point teaser: Eagles o39.5, Denver PK, Atlanta +10.5 (+105)

Back on the weekend

Over-reliance on squad value is the reason the Africa Cup of Nations is such a good competition for betting dogs. The lines are set based on which EPL players are involved, and every year teams like Egypt or KSA or Libya are way better sides than the ones whose players you've heard of.

Makes sense. In a league that's 80 percent Black, this one Black guy is a "DEI hire."

Way to claw your way back!

And do drop the -3.7 numbers in here, too please!

@DogbiteWilliams

 Got it, thanks!

I'd be interested in the -3.5 number too, I hadn't heard the troubles go that low.

Of course they're not his troubles, I don't mean it like that, it's mostly a reflection of the books' and market's overvaluing the team.

Thanks for that. The margin is the -0.1 that I see? I'm seeing -7.2 meaning the same as -7.5, basically? The 10.7 is the average margin under those circumstances? 

I remember reading that Patrick Mahomes was lights out as an underdog back in the day, but hasn't been nearly as good as a big favorite. He's 37-30 ATS or something when favored by double digits (or by more than a TD?)? Does anybody have access to a database that I can't find on google? TIA

@wizard1183

 Depends on whether KC and Kelce are romping. They only showed her midway through the 4th when he wasn't contributing to the offense last time.

DeVonta Smith under 4.5 receptions (-118)

This prop is likely to come down to the wire, with Smith's most common result being exactly four catches. However, not every game is created equal. Smith went over this number in 100% of the games with Brown hurt and 100% of games with Pickett under center, but only 25% of games with Hurts and Brown both healthy. He has hauled in precisely four balls in each playoff game but has done so on a perfect catch rate. Against a superior Chiefs defense that funnels passes away from wide receivers, I find it unlikely that Smith's targets spike to the level necessary to grade this wager a loss.

"Safe" legs to include in same-game parlays
One aspect of line shopping that often goes underutilized is the practice of adding "safe legs" to parlays or other bets. Some alternate lines are juiced extremely heavily, but others are built on a traditional curve (where the likelihood of things happening are clustered around the average with outliers on both sides). Some odds may be fair at the middle of the range but have value at either endpoint. These bets should not be placed by themselves due to the extremely short odds, but they can be parlayed together or added to another bet to increase the payout without adding much risk.

Dallas Goedert to have a 15+ yard reception (-300)

Goedert played 12 full games this season and had a 15-yard catch in 10 of them, including a run of five straight contests that includes Philadelphia's three playoff matchups. The Chiefs allowed the second-most yards after the catch to tight ends and have also faced the highest average depth of target to tight ends. This is an easy recipe for success.

Xavier Worthy 40+ receiving yards (-190)

The Chiefs have a history of building up their rookies over the course of the season. We saw it with Tyreek Hill, we saw it with Rashee Rice, and now we're seeing it with Worthy. The -190 odds imply a 65% chance of this happening and, at first glance, Worthy did hit this mark in 56% of his full games. However, beginning with Week 11's game against the Bills, Worthy has had at least four catches, at least five targets and at least 40 yards in nine consecutive outings. The Chiefs are giving the ball to this electric youngster more in space, rather than challenging opponents downfield as often.

The bets

Eagles to win, ML (+105)

Last year, I bucked the analytics and backed the Chiefs as slight underdogs since they had played a brutal playoff schedule and were peaking at the right time, while the San Francisco 49ers almost backed themselves into the Super Bowl. FPI has the Eagles favored by 2.2 points this time around, and they've been more battle-tested in terms of opponent strength than Kansas City.

To ensure victory against the Chiefs, you need to be capable of delivering a knockout blow. If there's one team with the skill set and fortitude to put KC on its heels, it's an Eagles squad that converts at short-yardage like no other team in NFL history, with shutdown corners and a difference-making talent in Saquon Barkley. Philly almost beat the Chiefs in this game two years ago, outgaining them and only falling short due to a ticky-tack DPI call and a defensive touchdown.

Lastly, the Eagles haven't lost when fully healthy this season. They missed A.J. Brown in the one-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons (where a questionable play call likely cost them the game). They were without both Brown and DeVonta Smith when they were blitzed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and fell into a 24-0 deficit before achieving a single first down. And they lost Hurts due to a concussion when Kenny Pickett nearly knocked off the NFC runner-up Commanders.

Eagles to score on first drive (+100) AND Chiefs to score on first drive (+100)

The Eagles struggled to score on opening drives early this season, but they did turn it around with successful first drives in six of their last seven games, including touchdowns in four straight.

The Chiefs have scored on seven of their last nine opening drives.

The Chiefs have allowed opening drive scores in nine of their 20 games this season while the Eagles let both the Los Angeles Rams and Commanders score on their first drives during the playoffs.

Taking both bets at +100 allows for a breakeven payout if only one team scores, and I think it's more likely both teams score rather than neither team.

Noah Gray under 1.5 receptions (-125)

Gray was a featured piece of the Chiefs offense for much of the middle of the season, especially as Travis Kelce faltered and Rashee Rice got injured. But with Xavier Worthy's role growing weekly and Hollywood Brown back from injury, Gray has seen his usage evaporate. Over his last five games, he's seen five total targets. Sure, he caught all of them but went under 1.5 grabs in all but one of those games.

TD scorers
It sounds simple enough, but there are still a lot of new options. The traditional Anytime TD, First TD and Last TD are perennial favorites among casual bettors, but if you want to get into the weeds, you can even bet the over/under on the jersey number of the first touchdown scorer.

Player props
Yards, completions, catches, rushes, interceptions, tackles, field goals ... you name it, you can bet on it. Every player will have their individual over/under prop listed, but there are also some fun specials surrounding Super Bowl superlatives. Will Saquon Barkley's longest run go for 40+ yards? Will Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts both throw for 300+ yards? Who will catch the most passes in the game? Each primary skill player has their own tab for special props as well.

Game props
Probably the biggest increase in props for the Super Bowl falls under this umbrella. Here are some examples of how granularly you can bet this game.

First drive -- Will the team score? Cross midfield? Reach the red zone? Have a 20-yard pass play?

Half/quarter -- Spread/Total/Money line bets for every span of game time, the number of touchdowns in each half, and which quarter will see the most points scored.

Game flow questions -- Will the team that scores last win the game? Will the game be tied at any point (not counting 0-0)? Will there be a score in the last two minutes of either half?

Miscellaneous -- 2-point conversions, win margin, total number of scores in the game.

Dos and Don'ts
Here are a few tips when looking at the Cheesecake Factory-sized menu of bets:

DO make sure to comb through all of the options. Sportsbooks are elite at setting lines on sides and totals because they've had practice for years, with lots of data to support their decision. These are the most popular bets to place so the sportsbooks get a lot of money on both sides and can settle on a number in (or near) the middle. However, when they branch out and offer this many different props, you can find some lines that are off from where they should be listed.

DON'T make a same-game parlay with too many overs. For example, you may think all of the Chiefs' pass-catchers are in great spots after watching Zach Ertz find the holes in the Eagles defense last week, but they won't all go over in the same game. It's more likely that a few players go over their total while a few players go under.

DO make a same-game parlay with correlated legs. Mahomes passing yards and Xavier Worthy receiving yards both going over likely happens together. Hurts going over both his completions and attempts props likely happens in a game where the Eagles are playing from behind.

DON'T bet your normal amount on every prop, especially if you're planning on betting a lot of these markets.

DO have fun with it! It's the last meaningful NFL action for seven months. Make the most of it while wagering responsibly.

Every season, I consider these types of articles to be full of fade-worthy material.

Betting for beginners: Finding value out of the thousands of Super Bowl props

By Kevin Pulsifer ESPN logo
Wednesday, January 29, 2025 1:09PM

In the Super Bowl Era, there have been a total of 14,127 games played. And, in those games, teams have gained a collective 9,147,069 total yards.

Nine million sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But think about this: 9.1 million is going to be less than 0.1% of the total amount wagered by Americans on this year's Super Bowl.

Every year, the American Gaming Association releases estimates on how much the U.S. will wager on the Super Bowl. In 2021, that number was $4.3 billion wagered by 23 million Americans, both of which represented single-event records at the time. By 2023, it had jumped to 50 million people and $16 billion. Last year, it was 68 million people and $23 billion. In all likelihood, it's going up again this year.

So, yeah ... people like to bet on the Super Bowl.

If you're reading this right now, you're either an experienced bettor looking for picks, or newer to the world of sports betting. If you're in the latter group, you're likely trying not to be overwhelmed by the sheer number of things you can bet on during the biggest sporting event of the year.

Going from "overwhelmed" to "adequately whelmed" can take some practice considering the incredibly large number of ways to bet on the Super Bowl. There are almost as many ways to eat shrimp, as the film "Forrest Gump" taught us.

Props are the fruit of the sportsbook sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, parlay it. There are passing props, rushing props, quarter props. Anytime touchdowns, first touchdowns, last touchdowns. There are quarter props, half props, drive props, kicking props, prop specials, prop parlays, prop alternates, props with juice, props without juice, props on Gatorade color, props sandwiches. That's ... that's about it.

For any type of bettor, I'll guide you through this massive props smorgasbord so that when you get to your Super Bowl party next Sunday, the only thing you'll get lost in is the overflowing buffet table. We'll get to the picks in a minute, but first, here's a summary of what's available to be bet on along with some "dos and don'ts" to keep in mind.

The markets
A quick note before we dive in: ESPN BET is still adding props and betting markets to the site. In the coming days, the overall list of options will grow rapidly. Some of the below examples aren't available yet, but certainly will be before kickoff.

Game lines
These are your classic bets: money line, spread and total. Pick a winner, go over or under on the final score (currently KC -1.5 and O/U: 49.5). Don't be afraid to move the line if you're feeling confident. Do you think thePhiladelphia Eagleswin in a high-scoring affair? Try getting PHI -6.5 at +220 or over 59.5 points (+270). Feeling a low-scoringKansas City Chiefsvictory? Parlay KC -2.5 and the under for +525 odds.