NFL WEEK 2 .........................2025

Season --- 3-5, lost 2.6 units

Couple of plays I do like and could take a small half unit play.

Seahawks +3 over Steelers

Eagles -1 over KC

Falcons +3.5 over Vikings

There is a couple of pretty good indicators backing these teams.

But I will likely pass for now. 

Next week Packers are -7.5 over Browns in Cleveland. 

Hope that drops to 7. If Browns play the Ravens tough might do it but I don't think they will.

Wash -6.5 over Raiders.

Interesting  game for Wash. Geno is pretty good if he doesn't  throw INT's. 

Next 2 or 3 weeks we'll  find out who this Wash team is.

@theclaw

Pending Plays ..................

KC UNDER 12.5 wins -240 --- 2.4 units

KC UNDER 11.5 wins -135 --- 1.35 units

Packers to win Division -125 --- 2.5 units

I got this online .......

Dogs +6 or larger hit 60% ATS past 20 years.

Saw this last year, not sure how those dogs did last year.

The sweet spot seems to be +8 to +10.....

That was over 70% I think 77% but I don't think it was past 20 years more like 10 to 15 years. I wrote that down but can't find it.

This one I got this season.

Teams that win by 17 pts or more you fade, teams that lose by 17 pts or more you back.

That I got last year has a nice winning ATS record like 60 to 65 %.

Personally I don't like fading teams off big wins or losses of only 1 game.

But I am aware of this trend.

D and 8<=line<10 and season>2010

199-177 (53%)

You must be thinking of something else.

@theclaw

 For years, I've been backing teams the week after they lose by four touchdowns on the road. It has always done well, 55-58%. But a couple of years ago I split the data into three buckets: teams that lose by 4 TDs, teams that score single digits on the road (regardless of the final score), and teams that both lose by 4 TDs and score single digits on the road.

The one to throw out is those that lose by four TDs while scoring double digits (except for home dogs; they cover at 63%). 

Good luck.

That is bullshxt, and it is not even close.

D and line > 5.7 and season > 2005

ATS:  1026-993-45 (-0.7,50.8%)   That is slightly positive, but it would NOT cover the vigorish.

I got that online I think I know the video. I'll try to find it ..........

Véy nice, thanks ...........

Wow that is way off...............

  That's why when people  post things online you have to know if you can trust it.

I have found guys making mistakes or just false info before.

KC's luck running out this season.

Hobbled pass at goal line turns into an INT with nice return.

Then an Eagles TD. UP 10 with 7 minutes to go.

Can Mahomes do it ?

Danny Dimes lighting up this supposed great Denver defense.

461 yds of offense and strong 9.2 ave per pass.

8.8 Incuding sacks.

Colts down 2 should be up in this game. Outplaying Broncos by a decent amount.

Colts got the FG to win the game.

Starting to look like the Colts could very well be amoung the bigger surprise stories this season.

They beat Dolphins who look pretty pathetic and Broncos who many thought would be a good team .

I saw the video it was for Week 1 only over the past 20 years.

My bad ..................

I did write it down but could find it.

GL  on your plays & this  season @theclaw 

Need Falcons to go 4-0 in the Covers free pick 4 contest. $50 Amazon gift card at stake.

1-3 in the  1st week though.

Did win my survivor play on Ravens.

Nice revenge after losing in week 1 last season on Bengals.

That loss was particularly brutal since I let some others talk me off the game I had planned on playing and that game won.

I always make my owns plays regardless what anyone else says. That makes it so much more agravating for sure