theclaw

Yes I know Giants don't look good but they weren't good last season and only lost to Wash by 3 & 5 when Wash went 20 of 23 on 4th downs. How many did they get VS Giants and still couldn't beat them by over 1 score ?

Your welcome ........

But If you feel Wash is the right play using other info I wouldn't only apply the info I posted .

But  I will say that info is quite telling, I was pretty surprised to see the info from you tube, it fit my info with a play on Giants.

But as always there is other info as well to consider.

@spottie2935........

Thank you, BOL to you. hopefully it works out but I think it is the right play long term.

@undermysac......

 Thank you, BOL this season 

@C-70Blues........ according to my indicators Giants should improve in some areas like close wins.

1-8 last year, those teams tend do to well in week 1 when peoole are judging them based on poor play last season.

And they'll also be judging Wash on their big improvements  over the year before and their success last season.

 ........

I was pretty surprised my self seeing that info on you tube.

That is on top of my indicators which do show Wash to regress .

I saw some things on you tube regarding Wash regressing.

They beat only 1 playoff team in regular season. That was Eagles but Eagles had a good lead before Hurts was injured and out, only then Wash came back to win.

They won 1 game on a hailmary.

Wash played 9 QB's that were either back-ups or benched at some point in the season.

Wash converted 20 of 23 on 4th down which set a new NFL record. Not very repeatable.

And it is info like this why so many feel Wash will regress this season.

Think about this, with all this going for them they still needed 8... 1 score close wins to get 12 wins on the season.

8  close wins likely won't  be repeated. 

Here are the 4 teams they beat by more then 1 score.......

3-14 Browns

3-14 Titans

5-12 Panthers

8-9 Cards

They beat Panthers just before mid-season which Panthers were very bad. They opened 1-7  and were 3-11 at one point before wining 2 of 3 to end season when QB finally played better.

So 3 of the worst teams in the league.

They beat Giants by 3 and by 5.

Stroud had a monster rookie year only to regress the next year which was last year. People were talking about him as a top tier QB with Mahomes and Allen.

Not  likely Jayden plays as well or gets the same breaks he did last year.

It seems very unlikely Wash won't regress.

Thing is dog I don't really know the probabilities they regress by 4 or 5 games. I do know that at their expected wins (-4.8) these teams have regressed 4 or 5 games even more and were big surprise stories in those years.

But that doesn't  tell me the probabilities the regressi9n will be 4 or 5.

I am very confident KC will regress but how much I don't know.

Your comment does give me an idea though, I have all the past years of expected wins stapled together, I could go through them and find the probabilities. 

I think I'll do that, shouldn't take that long and that could prove to be valuable info in the future.

I just finished doing research into the conf finals of NBA playoffs while I had all my NBA stuff out for recently finished playoffs and I had things fresh in my mind.

I did post some interesting things I found in my NBA playoff thread if you want to check it out. As well as anyone else.

Which year was weakest, which was strongest.  Who played highest rated 2 teams in conf finals and finals, who played the weakest.  

Along with both PR's records from 1997 to 2025 but missing 2 years.

I Got some game changing info for next seasons playoffs 

Thank you, best of luck to you as well ............

Yes I hear you. But Wash has so many reasons to think they will regress. And many are well aware of those reasons. It is probably justified but even then when too many jump the same side it is not a good thing I do agree with that ......... 

I'd guess that would be the logical choice for most people.........

Well, that does make sense but sometimes things don't make any sense happen...........

Which year had the highest rated 4 teams ?

1997 the Bulls 2cd repeat

Heat with Alonzo Mourning and I think Hardaway.

Jazz of course Malone and Stockton

And Rockets with Akeem.

Ave 7.33

Ave 3 opps 6.44

Ave 2 teams Bulls beat 7.17, one of very few teams to beat opps ave over a 7 rating.

2cd best was 2008 with Celtics winning title.

Ave 7.25

Ave 3 teams 5.99,  ave 2 teams C's beat 6.69

3rd best 1998 the Bulls 2cd 3-peat.

Ave 6.99

Ave 3 teams 7.25, ave 2 teams Bulls beat 7.25

The highest rated 2 teams any team needed to beat was 2019 Raptors beating Bucks 9.31 and Warriors 7.74, however KD was injuried and the Klay was to so I don't count this as the best.

But was not the highest rated 4 teams or 3 opps they may have needed to beat.

Very likely Warriors win that series if those 2 don't go down.

So that leaves the highest rated 2 teams any team beat was 2016 Cavs beating Raptors only 3.98 but beating the 11.34 Warriors for an ave of 7.66.

So we should give LBJ credit here.

But Green suspended 1 game and Bogurt getting hurt certainly brings that ave down some.

It is hard to say how much we'd  need to lower the ave but I'll  give Bron and Cavs the benefit of the doubt and call this the highest rated 2 teams any team beat.

Anyway just wanted to throw this out there, looking forward to next season with lots of new info to battle the books.

Hope to see everyone there, untill then BOL ....

What year had the weakest 4 teams make the conf finals ?

Keep in mind from 1980 to 2025 only the 2023 Nuggets  won the title without having the common deniminators (CD) of past champs.

Yep it was 2023, I feel my  (CD) was vindicated with this new info.

The 4 teams in conf finals averaged  a very pathetic 2.34, even worse the LBJ's opps.

If we take out the champion Nuggets of the 3 opps the Nuggets could have faced the ave was a laughable  1.89. Again easily the weakest of any year. No other year was the 3 opps below 3.5.

And of the 2 teams the Nuggets actually beat to win the title the ave of those was a dreadful (-.14).

The 2cd weakest year is very interesting  as well, because it was 2020, first year of covid with no fans in stands and playoffs on a neutral site.

Ave of 4 teams 3.96, ave of the 3 opps LA could have played 3.51 and ave of 2 opps LA beat to win title 2.59 even worse the LBJ's opps in conf finals.

And that was 1 of his 4 titles.

Hey I did just finish up researching the conf finals from 1997 to 2025.

But dint have 2007 and 2014.

Will have alot of new stuff next year.

Found some game changing info for sure 

PR I wins series 76% of the time when better by minimum amount.

PR II wins 80%.

Teams rated 8.5 or better in PR I win series 13-3

Teams rated 54.75 or better PR II wins series 10-2

If the same team ranked 4th of the 4 teams in conf finals in both PR I & PR II they are 5-10 at winning the series.

Actually not that bad winning 33.3% of the time. Didnt expect that good a win rate.

The highest rated team in PR I to lose in conf finals was 2009 Cavs with Bron 9.4.

A Rating of 9 would be considered  amoung the all-time great teams.

If we look at 8 teams LBJ beat in conf finals, the ave PR I rating of those teams was a pretty pathetic 3.47.

I don't have 2 years he made finals but I doubt that would improve by much.

A rating of 6 would be the start of a very good team.

5 of his 8 opps rated below 4, 7 of his 8 opps rated below 5, only 1 team rated over 6, that was 2012 Bulls at a pretty strong 7.82 but the best player D. Rose was injuried in that series 

My favorite regression  fade this season will be obviously KC.

11-0 in close wins, expected Wins of (-4.8) one of if not the worst I've ever seen.

KC might win 4 or 5 or even  more fewer games this season.

Vikings would be my 2cd favorite regression fade 9-1 in close wins. (-2.9) expected wins.

I strongly suspect one of these 2 teams will be a huge surprise how far they sink this season

Nice, I do like GB week 1 but won't take action on the game.

Their expected Win difference  is 2.5, anything 2.5 or better has been successful over the years.

But I like to back the top 2 largest differences , GB is 5th.

9ers have 2.7 difference  over Seattle.

I like 9ers as well but won't take action .