theclaw

According to PR II Chargers should of won by 23.61 Pts. Not 11 pts.

PR I would be even a larger margin because of the complete dominate passing of Chargers. As PR I is more pass heavy while PR II is more about balance.

Chargers laid a beat-down on the Raiders last night. Far more dominate then the final score would suggest.

Herbert beat Geno in QB Passer rating by a whopping 85 pts.

Geno 37 QBPR. he was up to his old tricks with 3 INT's which I talked about and on top of that he flat-out just played extremely poor.

Maybe it had alot to do with Chargers defense who did hold Mahomes to well below ave QBPR. 

Granted with limited weapons  but still.

2cd year with coach Harbaugh this team looks pretty solid at this point. 

Interesting Mahomes is no Brady, some of Brady's years he had no-name receivers but still did well offensively. When those recievers moved on they did not do much on their new teams.

Exactly ................

Season --- 3-5, lost 2.6 units

I have some plays I could take action on but probably  won't. 

Lions +6 over Ravens

Pats +1.5 (-115) over Steelers

Colts -3 (-120) over Titans

Falcons -4.5 over Panthers

Colts a top 3 performer week look like they could become one of the bigger surprise stories in which case this would be another good indicator to back the Colts on top of the other indicator I am using.

Ravens play KC next week. Maybe they will get caught looking ahead with the idea they could really put this KC team in a hard spot with a win.

Meanwhile KC plays the Giants with Russ W. Off a very big game. Will they be looking ahead with the idea they could be 1-3 with a loss ?

But they can't  afford to lose to the Giants then play the Ravens.

Giants in a sandwich spot, should be an interesting game for sure KC has to bring a big game they can't risk another loss.

Anyone taking Giants + the points ?

Need Falcons to go 4-0 in the Covers free pick 4 contest. $50 Amazon gift card at stake.

1-3 in the  1st week though.

Did win my survivor play on Ravens.

Nice revenge after losing in week 1 last season on Bengals.

That loss was particularly brutal since I let some others talk me off the game I had planned on playing and that game won.

I always make my owns plays regardless what anyone else says. That makes it so much more agravating for sure 

I saw the video it was for Week 1 only over the past 20 years.

My bad ..................

I did write it down but could find it.

Colts got the FG to win the game.

Starting to look like the Colts could very well be amoung the bigger surprise stories this season.

They beat Dolphins who look pretty pathetic and Broncos who many thought would be a good team .

Danny Dimes lighting up this supposed great Denver defense.

461 yds of offense and strong 9.2 ave per pass.

8.8 Incuding sacks.

Colts down 2 should be up in this game. Outplaying Broncos by a decent amount.

KC's luck running out this season.

Hobbled pass at goal line turns into an INT with nice return.

Then an Eagles TD. UP 10 with 7 minutes to go.

Can Mahomes do it ?

Wow that is way off...............

  That's why when people  post things online you have to know if you can trust it.

I have found guys making mistakes or just false info before.

Véy nice, thanks ...........

I got that online I think I know the video. I'll try to find it ..........

Seahawks 

Falcons 

I got this online .......

Dogs +6 or larger hit 60% ATS past 20 years.

Saw this last year, not sure how those dogs did last year.

The sweet spot seems to be +8 to +10.....

That was over 70% I think 77% but I don't think it was past 20 years more like 10 to 15 years. I wrote that down but can't find it.

This one I got this season.

Teams that win by 17 pts or more you fade, teams that lose by 17 pts or more you back.

That I got last year has a nice winning ATS record like 60 to 65 %.

Personally I don't like fading teams off big wins or losses of only 1 game.

But I am aware of this trend.

Pending Plays ..................

KC UNDER 12.5 wins -240 --- 2.4 units

KC UNDER 11.5 wins -135 --- 1.35 units

Packers to win Division -125 --- 2.5 units

Next week Packers are -7.5 over Browns in Cleveland. 

Hope that drops to 7. If Browns play the Ravens tough might do it but I don't think they will.

Wash -6.5 over Raiders.

Interesting  game for Wash. Geno is pretty good if he doesn't  throw INT's. 

Next 2 or 3 weeks we'll  find out who this Wash team is.

Season --- 3-5, lost 2.6 units

Couple of plays I do like and could take a small half unit play.

Seahawks +3 over Steelers

Eagles -1 over KC

Falcons +3.5 over Vikings

There is a couple of pretty good indicators backing these teams.

But I will likely pass for now.