theclaw

Game 6 ...........

OKC -4 (-120) over Pacers --- 1.2 units

That play is at any point in the series. Does not have to be game 5............. .....

And that plays well with backing OKC tonight.

The total opened low but then it moved up to the point I considered not playing the over.

But checking just before game time it was back down to the lowest point I seen it. Couldn't pass on that low a total.

Teams off 2 unders, not the best spot to take the Under and not a great spot to fade the Under.

But with a big line adjustment  off the 1st game and 2cd, 3rd games as well. 6.5 to 7.5 adjustment. 

Take these extra points and play the over.

OKC/Pacers OVER 222.5 --- 1.1 UNITS

Do you know the 5 teams ? ..............

I will run the numbers and check shooting efficiency margin in those games.

Alot depends on all the other things teams do.

OKC won FT battle pretty large and they won TO's, and FG% by decent amount then on top of that they won rebound battle. 

I doubt any of those other 5 teams did that.

Very cool info  dog ................

 Pacers are playing very well together with alot of confidence but I'd question losing that game 4 like they did whether that breaks the sense of invincibility they had to win all these close games and make big comebacks..............

OKC to win series 4-2 (+105) over Pacers--- .5 units

OKC -9 (-120) over Pacers --- 1.2 units

Want to play a crazy prop ? OK let's do it .......

With Hali making all these last second shots, books now have him along with SGA as favorites to make the last second shot with no inbound pass after. Games ends on that shot.

Pacers are not very likely to continuing winning these last second shot games.

I say if there is such a game OKC wins the next one.

The interesting player is Holmgren, he could get off rebound off a miss for dunk or off the glass bank as time expires or catch a lob similar to what Nuggets did . Or alley-op.

When these props come out because of Hali I like the longshots on OKC.

Let's not get crazy people, keep it very small.

I think it is well worth a shot because of the situation with Hali being so far ahead of any player in history on last second shots for the win.

What a fitting way for OKC to wrap up this series in Indy to make a last second shot at the buzzer considering all the buzz around Hali being the man.

This is for the series ............

Holmgren +50000 ---- .1 units 

Caruso +50000 --- .1 units

Jaylen Williams +40000 --- .1 units

This could be an all-time great win for the ages .................

Spot favors OKC as the clearly better team, with the series tied 2-2 probabilities say the team to win the series should win game 5.

winning teams in the finals cover at a high rate.

From 2008 to 2015 I broke down all finals games some years back.

Of 47 games only 6 did the losing team cover the spread, could of been a push or a few.

I don't have more recent data but most likely it will be similar. Maybe not as good but still it will point to winning team.

Unfortunately  I don't have my lines record in finals games with series tied 2-2. The only spot I don't have.

Since 94 there have been 11 teams tied 2-2 the winner of Game 5 has won series 8 times. All 3 losing teams played in the old 2-3-2 format which meant both games 6 & 7 were at home.

And opp had 3 of 5 games at home, hence the 3-2 lead.

But in game 5's be it 2-2 or 3-1 the one consistent is back teams off SU wins. Teams off losses are around 50% ATS.

Teams off SU wins are above 65%

From some reason I don't have the past 6 or 7 years I stop logging that info. Regardless pretty much everything  wants to point to OKC.

Play has to be on OKC.

MY LINES .........................game 5

OKC -12.51 over Pacers

OKC -9.09 over Pacers ........since Jan 2.

My full season line is 1-1 ATS in finals

Since Jan 2cd line is 0-1 ATS in finals.

If we used my lines on game 3 then Jan 2cd line won while full season line had no play but since I don't use my lines on game 3 tied 1-1 the full season line has been a bit better.

I look at all the playoff games and about the same result, both lines are pretty close, since Jan 2cd line is slightly ahead for what it is worth.

But the one big advantage if since Jan 2cd line I would have been on Pacers to win series over Knicks .

By using since Jan 2cd line missed out on a few fades on Pacers that were easy wins with no sweating it out at the end.

So could that be the case game 5 ?

Since Jan 2cd has no play but full season has OKC.

Line would need to go to 10.5 to have a play on Pacers with Jan 2cd line which is not very likely

OKC won the all-important FG% battle 47.4 to 42.5 = 4.9%, that is 4-0 now for the winning team.

Pacers won 3 pt % , 30.6 to 18.8 = 11.8% and Pacers took 36 attempts to OKC 16.

That seems like a big win by Pacers but not really.THAT 30.6% equates to 45.9% on 2's.

Considering Pacers shot over 50% on 2 pt shots and overall including TO's 46.64% by keeping cranking up 3's and misses is not creating an advantage.

OKC shot very poor but limited their 3's.

OKC won FT battle pretty good amount, 89.5% to 75.8% = 13.7% and they took 5 more FT's.

Taking more FT's creates an even bigger advantage, on the 5 extra FT's that means Pacers are shooting from the field where each possession they averaged 46.64%.

Wow, that's over a 42% advantage , that's  why Taking more matters. Same with 3's unless you shoot poorly 

OKC won TO battle by only 2.  The 2 big areas of strength  for OKC, FT's and TO they won both while winning 1 by a pretty good amount.

OKC won rebounding battle by 10.

OKC I think has now won rebound battle in 3 of 4 games only losing game 1 when coach took both bigs out and try playing with a small line up.

Shooting Efficiency..........

OKC 50.45%

Pacers 46.64%

By 3.81%

Equates to a 11.67 point vistory. The right team won and should have covered the spread.

Yes you don't want to back the clearly better team each game..................

However based on the situation on how this series is playing out the spot has been better for the better team in each game.

Opps, won 1 unit not 1.1..........

Playoffs --- 24-19, won 4.99 units

Pacers finally lose their close game magic. Making big mistakes and missing key shots.

Did OKC just break that air of invincibility the Pacers had ?

OKC's defense was incredible late, super aggressive.

I was pretty confident OKC would pull this game out going down the final 3 to 4 minutes. As I said those close wins are not repeatable over the longer run.

But I didn't think they would cover, well, I thought they'd need to get lucky to cover. Which is what happened.

1-0, won 1.1 units

Finals 2-2, lost .2 units

It was only a matter of time...............

Pacers cannot sustain winning every close game where every bounce goes there way, eventually things will go against them.

I saw a prop, Hali to make a last second shot to win the game with no inbound pass by opp after made shot.

+4500

Books taking advantage of the Pacers close win magic to build their coffers.