Mahomes as a big favorite?

I remember reading that Patrick Mahomes was lights out as an underdog back in the day, but hasn't been nearly as good as a big favorite. He's 37-30 ATS or something when favored by double digits (or by more than a TD?)? Does anybody have access to a database that I can't find on google? TIA

I don't know how to query for a player.  I just looked into the PM data at Pro Football Reference to find out that he became the KC starter in the 2018 season.

I next went to Gimme the Dog and ran this query:

team = Chiefs and season > 2017 and line < -7.2

SU:  44-3 (10.7,93.6%)

ATS:  19-26-2 (-0.1,42.2%)

That is not very good, but that average ATS margin is way too small to fade.

Thanks for that. The margin is the -0.1 that I see? I'm seeing -7.2 meaning the same as -7.5, basically? The 10.7 is the average margin under those circumstances? 

-3 and under he has a very good ATS record.

-3.5 or higher he has a losing record but has been good recently. He might be close to .500 now after his recent performances going back to last year I think.

I'd be interested in the -3.5 number too, I hadn't heard the troubles go that low.

Of course they're not his troubles, I don't mean it like that, it's mostly a reflection of the books' and market's overvaluing the team.

well if you subscribe to marc larences plat book every game n spread are posted

also here on covers go to teams stabdibgs then click season but no longer gives past years

Yes, 10.7 is the average SU margin and -0.1 is the average ATS margin.

I use 0.2 and 0.7 to avoid confusion.  If I use "< -7.5" lines at -7.5 would be excluded from the query results.  Also, -7.2 provides a clear line of demarcation between -7 and -7.5 and makes it easy to flip the query, i.e. "> -7.2" and "< -7.2" provide clearly different results. Using "> -7.5" and "< -7.5" excludes games at exactly -7.5 from both sets of query results.  Using ">= -7.5" and "<= -7.5" includes games at exactly -7.5 in both sets of query results.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Got it, thanks!

And do drop the -3.7 numbers in here, too please!

Part of the Take

They sucked u in for the Super Bowl

marc lawrence playbook shows 11 years of all te ams ats results

heres results spreads - - 7.5 n higher

-8 home  vs denver won 30-24 ......0-1

-8 @ browns won 37-21   ----------1-1

-15 home vs cards 26-14   1---2

-14 @ raiders 40-33    1---3

-7.5 vs ravens 27-24  1---4

-14 home vs raiders won 35-3 2---4

2019

-7.5 @ detroit 34-30  2--5

-10 vs colts s/u loss 13-19 2---6

-10 vs riders W 40-9  3---6

-9 vs denv. W 23-3  4-6

won sb -1.5 vs 49 ers who btw never won vs chiefs

2020

-7.5 @ chargers 23-20  4---7

-11 vs pats 26-10  5--7

-19.5 vs jets W 6-7

then rippe d wallets apart losing 10 out 11 plus the sb -3

-13 -10 -7.5 -11 -8 making it 6-12

2021

-11.5 vs nyg 20-17 6--13

-7.5 vs GB 13-7  6--14

-9.5 vs denvr 23-9  7--14

-10 vs raiderz 48-9 8--14

-12.5 @ denver 28-24  8--15

-7.5 po vs cincy s/u loss 8-16

2022

-7.5 vs raiderz 30-29 8---17

-14 vs tenn. 20-17 8--18

-11 vs jags 27-18 8--19

-15.5 vs rams 26-10  9--19

-9.5 @ denver 34-29 9--20

-14 @ texans 30-24  9--21

-10.5 vs seattle 24-10  10--21

-12.5 vs denver 27-24 10--22

-9.5 po vs jags 27-20  10--23

+1 sb vs eagles 38--35

2023

-12 vs bears 41-10 11-23

-8 @ NYJ  23-20   11--24

-10.5 vs denver 12-24

-12 @ denver s/u loss 9-24 12-25

-7.5 @ GB s/u loss 19--27  12--26

-11 @ pats 27-18  12--27

+2 sb beat  49ers 25-22

now 2024 a barrge of losses

-7.5 @chrgrs 17-11  12--28

-9.5 @ raiderz 27-20  12-29

-7.5 vs denver 16-14  12--30

-11.5 @ carolina 30-27  12--31

wow we are rich 31---12 72 %  at 100$ per game win 3410.00 L 1320.00 2090.00 net divde by 11 yeras +190.00 per year